Alex Mukhin

Alex Mukhin

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Co-founder and Managing Partner @CryptomeriaCap | Co-founder @mpost_io | Co-founder @universesatoshi

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never has there been a stronger need for opinion markets than now but a real opinion market requires a radically new market design we need a new primitive, not a copy of existing ones @r8rate is built around eureka: a protocol for subjective reality with economic selection

I see many attempts to build opinion markets but most copy prediction market design it's cognitive trap: we have model proven for forecasting and demand for opinion markets so ppl try to combine them result: broken market opinion markets need fundamentally different structure

highly recommend the full Katherine Maher talk we don't just need more speech. we need better signal opinion markets will help there: aggregate beliefs, quantify confidence and reward calibration they make discourse legible: beliefs -> prices -> feedback

If there’s one learning lesson you need to take away in 2026 it’s that the truth doesn’t matter anymore and reality isn’t real. People will invent narratives and facts to suit desired objectives and if enough people agree, that’s the new reality. People who point out that the

the biggest difference between current internet and 2000s era is UGC now we don't just watch/read smth from big productions and pro teams. we mostly get content from same users. it makes the content fun and up to date same with finance. new finance is kinda UGC. but not in a way when everyone launch new shitcoin it's when the crown can 'generate' and manage prices. so called UGP (user generated price) prices which reflect their feelings and beliefs prices on opinions

in opinion markets price isn't the probability of truth it's a compressed signal of collective belief the real information is in how the distribution of beliefs changes, not just in a 5-point price move

when I see msg from early-stage founders 'I don't answer dms, fill the form or open ticket' I become very bearish about this project

great example of opinion markets - vc funding everyone can say how they're exited about your ideas, but it makes sense only in case these words are backed by capital so these dudes have skin in the game and ready to risk capital on their beliefs about your potential success

tinder-style cards in prediction markets apps are the most overestimated and one of the most useless mechanic have seen tons of attempts to do that. all of the failed, but still pushed as a 'killer feature' if smth obvious doesn't work probably nobody needs that

collective belief already moves markets $GME was pure sentiment memes too but get ruined by cabal teams even tech giants trade more on vibes than fundamentals @r8rate pushes this to opinion markets with no ground truth, only pure collective sentiment

if prediction markets are tradable claims on reality - opinion markets are tradable claims on consensus @r8rate makes debates liquid: hotter topic -> more volatility -> more signal you can hold, hedge and price

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