Historically, after a Bitcoin price drop exceeding 10% in a single day, the probability of it rising in the following week is approximately 62%, with an average return of 3.8% and a maximum drawdown of 5-10% (typically occurring in bear markets).
Since 2010, Bitcoin has experienced approximately 50 to 60 instances of a single-day drop exceeding 10%.
The statistical probability of an upward move is approximately 60-65%, with most cases seeing a recovery in the first week after a sharp drop. The average increase is 2-5%.
Classic Historical Events:
March 12, 2020 (The 312 Massacre): A single-day drop of nearly 40%, but prices recovered by about 20% from the bottom a week later.
May 19, 2021: A single-day drop of about 15%, followed by a week of wide fluctuations, ultimately closing with a slight increase.
August 17, 2023: A single-day drop of around 10%, followed by a week of relatively low-level consolidation.
October 2025 (Recently): A single-day drop of over 10% occurred, followed by a recovery of about 4% within a week.
