What everyone is most concerned about right now is whether the market will rotate back to the crypto after the gold price rally ends. So we still need to go back and look at why gold rose in the first place.
Previously, Bitcoin was referred to as digital gold, but in the past six months, as the market has diverged, this notion has faded.
Previously, everyone thought that Bitcoin's total supply was limited and that it could hedge against fiat currency inflation and serve as a safe haven. However, as Bitcoin's BTC dropped from 120,000 to 80,000, no one dared to mention it anymore.
The actual market is more complex than we imagine. Not every level of geopolitical risk will trigger a rise in safe-haven assets. This doesn't mean that BTC's function as a store of value or a safe haven is Schrödinger's cat. It's just that, like car shock absorbers, each has its own suitable operating conditions, and it can't handle every scenario with ease.
We can roughly divide the crisis into three levels:
Tier 1: Geopolitical tensions + rising interest rates + increased term premium (current main theme)
The core of this crisis is: uncertainty is rising, but the system has not yet shut down.
The characteristics are:
The goal of this investment isn't to get rich quick, but to "survive first."
What the market fears is the spread of war, loss of control over long-term debt, and forced policy distortions. The Federal Reserve is not rescuing the economy, but rather protecting the anchor (protecting the dollar/protecting US Treasury bonds).
At this time, what is most sought after? Gold.
Because gold is a "thermometer of instant confidence": if you are uneasy about institutional, geopolitical, and political noise, but you don't think the world will explode tomorrow—then buy gold.
Bitcoin often doesn't rise or even weakens in this category because it's traded for what? — A high-beta risk asset.
With a decrease in risk appetite, a reduction in leverage, and a tightening of cash, BTC is easily sold off as "liquidity that can be sold."
Tier 2: Liquidity Crisis (Margin Pressure/USD Cash is King)
If the situation worsens to the second level, the market will no longer discuss "logic," but will only focus on "margin replenishment, gap filling, and cash replenishment."
At this point, the most valuable assets are not gold or Bitcoin, but rather—US dollar cash and the shortest-duration safe assets.
Typical characteristics:
All asset classes fell together (correlation increased).
You'll see "good assets being sold off" because everyone is short of cash.
BTC, a highly liquid asset that operates 24/7, is often the first to be dumped. In other words, if the crypto crashes first, it doesn't mean BTC is failing, but rather that cash is scarcer than faith.
Tier 3: Credit Crisis/Sovereign Debt Crisis (Collapse of Trust in Fiat Currency)
Only when it reaches the third tier will Bitcoin truly "activate its safe-haven properties".
The meaning of this crisis is:
The market is no longer worried about "volatility," but rather about "settlement and credit."
The concern is no longer about one or two interest rate cuts, but rather whether "sovereign debt can be sustained."
Funds are starting to seek “extra-system assets” to hedge against long-term currency credit risk. At this point, gold will continue to be strong, but BTC will then see the kind of independent market that everyone wants to see – moving in the same direction as gold, or even more strongly.
If you see gold and Bitcoin surging, and it's not due to a single positive factor, but rather because "everyone is rebalancing their positions," then that indicates:
Market confidence in the "USD/JPY/sovereign debt system" is rapidly dwindling to zero.
In summary:
Gold prices are rising while Bitcoin prices are not: This indicates that the first tier of investors is afraid of chaos, but doesn't believe the world will collapse.
Gold prices rose, Bitcoin fell, and altcoins collapsed: This indicates that we've reached the second stage – a cash shortage, so liquidity needs to be cut first.
Gold prices surged, and Bitcoin also skyrocketed: This indicates the start of the third phase – beginning to question the underlying creditworthiness of fiat currencies and sovereign debt.
So what we need to observe next is whether BTC will enter the second or third phase. Walsh's rise to power and Trump's visit to China will be key variables, meaning that a trend may not emerge until Q2. This means that BTC has been consolidating from October of last year to April, exactly six months, consistent with the sideways consolidation period of gold last year.
If Walsh begins aggressive balance sheet reduction in Q2, BTC may experience a period of "deleveraging" pain until the market confirms a liquidity bottom. However, he probably won't be so drastic right after taking office; slowing down balance sheet expansion would be sufficient.
If Trump's visit to China achieves an unexpected trade easing (such as extending the tariff truce), geopolitical tensions will shift from a high fever to a chronic condition. At this point, gold's safe-haven premium will decline, while BTC, as a risk asset, will rebound in line with expectations of economic recovery in both China and the US.
If the negotiations with China break down, leading to further fragmentation of the global trade system, increased inflation in the US, and even discussions about "US debt legally repaying credit," then BTC will activate its "escape pod" attribute, triggering an independent surge in tandem with gold. However, this is a low-probability event.
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