Recharging my faith, $BTC Is there still a future? 🧐
First, why hasn't BTC exhibited the safe-haven asset attributes of gold?
@cryptodaoyi explained the Basel III agreement to me.
This agreement actually shaped gold's safe-haven asset attributes.
In April 2019, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) officially began implementing the reclassification of physical gold as a Tier 1 asset.
In June 2021 and January 2022, with the Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR) being implemented in various European countries, gold's status as a "zero-risk asset" was formally established and enforced at the legal level.
Therefore, Basel III is the real watershed moment that changed the asset attributes of gold.
However, BTC lacks any sovereign legislation or agreement to support its value.
This is why, even though Bitcoin has entered the mainstream, it still cannot change its risk asset attributes.
And precisely because it has entered the mainstream, institutions use the S&P technology stock standard to value Bitcoin.
In this scenario, lacking externalities—specifically, external funding sources—Bitcoin's price can only reflect the Fed's quantitative easing.
Once dollar liquidity tightens, it has no chance for independent price movements and can only follow the market downwards.
Returning to the initial question, I think
$BTC there are two opportunities.
First, it returns to Satoshi Nakamoto's purpose in writing the white paper: to make Bitcoin a means of payment.
Of course, the prerequisite for payment is highly mature technology and fast settlement. Second, as @bonnazhu said, it shouldn't be payments between individuals, but rather payments between AI and AI.
Because payments between individuals don't involve trustlessness or verification issues, but AI does.
Another opportunity arises when the market capitalization becomes large enough, and the dollar encounters credibility issues. Funds, especially sovereign wealth funds, will allocate to BTC, similar to gold's current status.
But this is a chicken-and-egg problem: does market capitalization expand because of prior allocation, or does larger market capitalization facilitate allocation?
In short, I'm not as pessimistic about BTC as some might think. Given the long-term backdrop of a declining US dollar, sovereign wealth funds need to allocate to independent assets besides gold, silver, and other fiat currencies.
The decline in the US dollar's credibility is inevitable due to the "Triffin dilemma."
BTC has the opportunity to absorb this portion of the funds.
That's all.
