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Delivering actionable, top-tier research for Hedge Funds & Traders at the crossroads of digital assets & financial markets. Learn @ https://post.10xresearch.co/
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10x Research
10x Weekly Crypto Kickoff – Is a Final Washout Still Ahead? The report covers derivatives positioning, volatility trends, and funding dynamics across Bitcoin and Ethereum, along with sentiment, technical signals, ETF and stablecoin flows, option activity, expected trading ranges for the next 1–2 weeks, and key upcoming market catalysts. Why this report matters Many traders are now asking what comes next, and as we review the latest data and positioning trends, it is worth revisiting the conclusion from last week’s report, which already outlined the framework for understanding the current market environment: “Last week, we cautioned that Bitcoin’s break below $87,000 should be respected. With Bitcoin down 12% over the past week and Ethereum down 17%, that call proved timely, allowing us to sidestep the bulk of the correction. Bitcoin is now approaching our $73,000 support level, a zone that capped prices for nearly five months in 2024 before the post-election rally pushed the market decisively higher. However, current flows suggest sentiment has shifted meaningfully. Stablecoin off-ramps and persistent ETF outflows indicate investors are not yet positioned to buy the dip. Notably, Circle has seen nearly $10 billion in stablecoin redemptions, pointing to reduced participation from more regulated market participants. While sentiment and technical indicators are approaching extreme levels, the broader downtrend remains intact. In the absence of a clear catalyst, there is little urgency to step in. Positioning dynamics suggest traders remain focused on deleveraging and position unwinds rather than on preparing for a typical snapback rally.” So the above was from our report last week, and in our report below, we look at the latest data. update.10xresearch.com/p/10x-w...…
BTC
2.41%
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10x Research
02-05
Bitcoin’s $30+ Billion Overhang: Where the Cycle Low Likely Forms Shortly after the Bahamas FTX conference in early 2022, I presented a scenario arguing that, if Bitcoin followed prior cycle dynamics, prices could decline from around $40,000 to below $20,000, with a potential bottom forming by October 2022. I was mentally prepared for the correction despite prevailing optimism at the time, particularly as key industry players such as FTX and Binance appeared to have virtually unlimited capital to acquire distressed competitors and to backstop the market. While extrapolating from only a handful of historical cycles is not statistically robust, Bitcoin has repeatedly shown that cycle analysis, despite its simplicity, can be an effective way to step back and understand how market psychology evolves through distinct phases. Each cycle introduces new narratives and promoters, often successfully attracting billions and, in this cycle, tens of billions of dollars in capital for single investments. Ironically, it is the subsequent reassessment of these allocations by investors, and the unwinding of the capital raised, that is now exerting downward pressure on Bitcoin. This dynamic closely resembles the forced liquidations of the summer of 2022. At current levels, the $3.5 billion in paper losses facing MicroStrategy mirrors the scale of the collapse of Three Arrows Capital. Meanwhile, Bitmine’s staggering $8 billion paper loss draws a sobering (financial) parallel to the losses sustained by FTX users. While the magnitude of these drawdowns echoes that of the 2022 bear market, history suggests that this cycle will eventually find its floor. Below, we outline the expected timing of Bitcoin's next cycle low and the price levels likely to accompany it. See when and where we expect the cycle low (update.10xresearch.com/p/bitco...…) as also outlined in our December 19, 2025 report "Trading the Reset: Bitcoin’s Path Through the 2026 Cycle Low" update.10xresearch.com/p/tradi...…
BTC
2.41%
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