the changing world order thesis by @RayDalio is coming true.
we’re now seeing the downfall of america.
ray mentioned 4 things that will happen inevitably during power shift:
1. massive debt
US has now $38.5 Trillion debt (!!!); debt-to-GDP ratio is 120%+ (your earning is $100, debt $120)
2. central banks prints a lot of money
pre-Covid (2020) Fed had $4.2T in asset; post-Covid (2022), the asset became $9T! (2x capital infusion in 2 yrs!)
3. internal + external conflicts
- 43 days govt shutdown in Nov due to medicare issues, partial shutdown on Jan 31 over immigration issues
- venezuela takeover (for oil)
- greenland annexation (for natural resources)
these accelerate military spending, reduce income, decrease people’s trust on govt.
4. rising power
britain took over dutch. US tookover britain. now china is taking over US.
china 8% avg. GDP growth vs US 2% || china 25%+ GDP growth contribution vs US 7%
however many believe we might see a multipolar world led by china, india (17% GDP growth contribution), EU, ME.
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the above clearly show US is declining and we’re soon about to see a change in world order!