Powell leaned more dovish than expected. He said the 75 bps of easing since September puts policy in neutral and allows the Fed to wait for incoming data. He described the decision as a “close call,” citing gradual labor-market cooling. Powell added that key data will arrive before January, AI’s effects are not yet visible in labor metrics, payroll gains may be overstated by around 60k (implying slightly negative job growth since April), the labor market carries downside risks, tariffs are driving most of the inflation overshoot, and T-bill purchases may remain elevated for months
A bullish 2026
