A post from an Iranian influencer in Lujiazui, Iran, states: Iran is incredibly resilient and can endure a prolonged war. Closing the Strait of Hormuz was a last resort. Iran currently has no demands and considers the situation quite good—a few shots a day, relatively civilized.
This round of fighting will definitely reopen the Strait, but whether oil prices will drop is uncertain because production cannot recover.
Iranian society is currently very stable, with no possibility of a coup or uprising.
Food is plentiful. A dozen Iranian naan breads cost 10; before the war, 10 cents could buy that many, now 40 cents, enough for food.
Iran exports 2000-3000 megawatts of electricity to Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Iran generates a lot of natural gas.
They are now selling Bitcoin because the abundant electricity allows for mining.
Currently, the government is providing ordinary citizens with two hours of electricity and two hours of water daily. Residents have bought diesel engines, and factories directly burn heavy fuel oil, requiring only filtration.
Therefore, Iran's resilience in the war is very strong, and it is expected to last for a year and a half. Currently, Iran has significant industrial output in steel and drones. The China-Europe Railway Express runs daily from Xi'an to Tehran, with normal shipments.
The moderates in Iran are all dead, leaving only the most restrained. The current ruler is the most hardliner; Mojtaba is simply the most suitable candidate.
Trump's attack on Iran legitimized the Revolutionary Guard, and the public is now satisfied with their victory.
Saudi Arabia allowing US aircraft to take off makes it an unfriendly country to Iran.
Now, the US is finding a way to back down; negotiations are impossible, and they're waiting for the US to declare victory and leave.
Last week, a fee was introduced for the Strait of Hormuz; it was $1.5 million per ship last week, and $2 million this week. This is just a gesture, not a substantial amount. Friendly countries don't have to pay $2 million, including China.
The reason Chinese ships were asked to turn back a few days ago was because 40 Israeli planes bombed Tehran that night, necessitating a declaration of reciprocal retaliation and closure of the Strait.
Iran believes it is a good party and hasn't opposed the world; it's the media that has mystified and demonized Iran.
Iran has consistently maintained restraint, not even playing cards like the Houthi rebels in Yemen. All actions are reciprocal retaliations, demonstrating restraint.
Iran possesses nuclear weapons, and its use of them requires justification; it doesn't want to provide one to the world. The US has no chance of winning.
However, how Trump will win and end the war is currently a matter of how he finds a way to back down. It's highly likely that it will be a small-scale war in which the US will declare victory and withdraw.
The vast majority of Iranians are unaware that the US is attacking them, or what the true significance of this war is. Iran cannot defeat the US, so it needs to establish a positive image and gain wider international recognition. Therefore, its restraint and reciprocal retaliation are based on maintaining this positive image.
Four of the 16 THAAD systems deployed globally by the US were destroyed by Iran in one day.
Oil prices are determined by production capacity and transportation. On the one hand, oil fields that have been shut down or destroyed require time to repair. Currently, the Gulf region has lost approximately 10% of its oil production, which will take 6-7 months to recover.
Iran is now forcing Saudi Arabia to decide whether it wants to be a friendly or unfriendly neighbor. If it chooses to be unfriendly, Iran might use extremely low oil prices to pressure Saudi Arabia after the war ends.
Iran currently has no demands and feels the situation is very good—firing a few shots daily, yet remaining relatively civilized.
This attack will definitely allow navigation through the Taiwan Strait, but whether oil prices will come down is uncertain because production cannot be restored.
The current concern is whether the US will return a few months after this attack. Even if the US eliminates 2,000 Iranian soldiers in April and achieves a so-called victory, Trump is unlikely to get the results he wants. He declared victory without negotiating with Iran, and Iran hasn't received a guarantee against future attacks. Therefore, even if the US declares victory in April, there's a high probability that the US will return a few months later.
