Many friends have been talking about this.
When I first saw it yesterday, I shared it with some friends to discuss whether it's worth washing rice or not. I may want to talk about how to play this kind of card, whether to play it or not, and how to get out of it.
I'll quote the previous operation of $mew. In fact, there's no operation, just a few pure gambles. Why mention this? Because pure gambling is generally a negative EV, similar to the feeling of directly pushing 2 7 suited without opening the river card that everyone likes to see. But after all, Texas Hold'em is still a relatively fair game, the chips on the table are visible to everyone, and the position is not necessarily the same, but when we rush to the dog, the most important thing on the chain is the position!
During this period, my win rate is not high either. I've been communicating with many friends, and whenever I see an interesting project, I'll share it. I've summarized some things and want to communicate more. This article will be a bit long, with no fixed theme, scattered and disorderly, writing as I think. I'll talk about diamond hands, stop profit, pump and dump, meme, trading logic, cash flow, etc.
Theme 1: MEME and Trading:
1. What is considered a pump and dump? First, look at your own strategy. For example, some of my group friends often play pump, get used to taking profits at 3-4x in a short time, forming a high-win-rate strategy. In this case, for us as pump and dump players, there is no such thing as a pump and dump. Taking an extra second is irresponsible to your own strategy, which is gambling. Since it's gambling, your operation is no different from buying the beginning of Doraemon with a $300k market cap. Do you understand what I mean? "Pump and dump" only exists when, within your strategy, your take-profit point needs to be adjusted, not because our vision is not big enough or not diamond enough. If we are frequent diamond hand players, April-June should be hell for you, because except for some overnight meme coins and ETH money laundering platforms, most of them are zeroed out. The average win rate of diamond hands is less than 10%, and the winning cases are also gambling to the real diamond. On the contrary, in March-April, the win rate of diamond hands may reach a terrifying 30%, which means that the principal can be multiplied dozens of times, as long as the rhythm is grasped.
In summary, if your take-profit is always not enough in your own strategy, just modify the strategy. Don't rashly change your strategy to do diamond hands just because you've sold a hundred-fold meme, otherwise you may lose a lot. There was a period when my win rate was less than 10% because I kept switching between short and diamond, without a plan, and the losses were even faster than pure diamond.
Theme 2: How to do diamond hands, what to do to achieve 1M+ PNL?
This is a topic I discussed with many big guys when I just entered the circle four years ago. Everyone has different opinions. Different people have different diamond hands for different targets. Those who diamond BTC are not the same as those who diamond Azuki and Pepe. Here we are discussing diamond on-chain memes, how to diamond 1-3M?
The essence of diamond is to have sufficient backing, such as mew, bome, pew, pepe, etc. To diamond without sufficient backing is gambling, pure gambling. I oppose all Monday morning quarterbacking, which is also why I never review mew - this kind of pure gambling game has no skill, and I don't brag that I made money by analyzing and using skills when I diamond mew, that was all luck. At that time, the group sent out tens of thousands of red envelopes, and the luck was attributed to metaphysics, so we don't look at it.
So, the premise of diamond on-chain memes is that we have a lot of money, have abundant cash flow, and can support the long-term low 10%-20% win rate negative EV trading strategy. And this trading strategy should not occupy more than 5% of our total investment portfolio, and for some big capital players, it may need to be adjusted down to around 2%. All our on-chain diamond hand behaviors are gambling, unless we have inside information or analyze abnormal moves. Even today's Doraemon, Pew Pepew, or mew, even if I know the control structure and the problem with the source of funds, the moment I bet is a gambling abyss, there's nothing to wash.
So in summary, I don't recommend small capital players to do diamond hands. The ones that small capital can match are probably the runes from the previous period, as their cost is indeed not that high. In March, June, and December of last year, there were many opportunities for small capital to diamond runes, because the early diamond of some runes may have a high enough return rate. On-chain memes and runes are quite different in many ways, which I'll expand on here:
We often talk about meme, but it's actually divided into several categories. Different meme player groups and people on the gambling table are different, which is why I say meme is not as good for small capital players now as runes. Runes is a unified consensus track with a general rise and fall effect, while meme is actually fragmented and diversified. I temporarily divide meme into the following categories based on the gambling point and the basic disk:
1. Hot spot meme: Short life cycle, strong explosive power, high odds, high risk, similar to RNT DJT. The "gambling point" is single, and the upward momentum is usually relying on the consistency of information expectations. This is the one I'm least likely to do, requiring concentrated attention and full focus, and grasping the market hot spots to do the relatively early buyers. This type of target is also difficult to diamond, and those who make money are mostly taking one wave and leaving, focusing on the big waves.
2. Long-term narrative meme: Long life cycle, multiple "gambling points", also the meme with the highest win rate for most people, similar to the meme of the US election concept, the meme of the Musk and OpenAI feud period of AI and X. This type of meme will occasionally explode from time to time, because the different angles of political and news reporting will often bring whales to buy in, giving swing traders a lot of opportunities to act, and it can also be diamond, with a basic narrative, once breaking through the on-chain bottleneck of 30M 100M, you can choose to continue diamond and wait for bigger bagholders to join.
3. Original meme: This is a big category, and it is further divided into many small categories. The "gambling points" are more diversified, but the risk is generally higher than the long-term narrative meme. Original meme can be further divided into the following categories:
(1) Money laundering original meme, such as $mew, $pew, $pepe. This type is the easiest for diamond hands to make money. The violent rise and high turnover can easily make diamond hands make money in the short term of 7 days or even 3 days (when did 3 days also count as diamond?). But the market is really like this, there's no way around it, you can't diamond for a year, right? The gambling angle of this type of disk is very single, looking at the pool size, the basic three-piece set, burning lock renounce, and then there's the bandwagon, buying the token airdrop and pre-sale KOL shilling. This type of disk is basically pure gambling, unless there's inside information.
Doraemon-like disks, where you come up and fully self-fill, distribute tokens, 99% control, what angle do you say to buy? It's just pure gambling, you're gambling that he won't rug, gambling that he'll launder money. If you have money, you can naturally go gamble, if you don't have money, you can't afford to gamble, unless you rely on gambling this kind of disk to start your career. Every day there are so many disks like this, we can try to keep statistics.
(2) Platform original meme: This is also a major branch, such as Shark Cat, Michi, Popcat, which we can consider as the main contributors to pump. For example, Blast's PAC, Degen Chain's Degen, etc. The existence of this type of meme solves the casino new user effect problem of the platform. We don't discuss which came first, the chicken or the egg, if I'm wrong you can scold me. The gambling points of platform original meme are many, both incorporating original and also backed by institutional background, there are multiple angles of game, and it is also very easy to make diamond hand users make big money.<content>http://3. Institutional original meme: This is very difficult to evaluate, generally cannot be discussed in public, and there are many ex-post factors, the bet is single, but the explosion rate is very high, such as the early silly dragon, the mid-term wif bome slerf, these memes have institutional support, there is always an invisible hand behind them, conspiracy theory, it can be said that SOL did these memes to sell SOL, institutional memes can often ignite market sentiment, bring FOMO tides, and rise quickly, the fighting style is fierce, and they are also the favorite of diamond hands, insiders with diamond hands can easily make a fortune on these.
④ Derivative nested meme: This belongs to the meme that is extremely simple for some people and extremely difficult for others, the bet is single, such as the GME full set, in fact, this is similar to the hot spot meme, but I will take it out separately, the main reason is that this thing can be predicted to a certain extent, and the game can be played on expectations, such as GME's stock price, WSB's activities, news and so on, can help you better judge the trading position in advance, but for non-professional investors, it is very difficult, and even diamond hands are difficult to do, because the valuation is difficult to evaluate.
⑤ NFT/product/exchange-derived meme, similar to the cult of Milady, MFER APE Bitget cat WEN and so on, the bet point of this type is very single, and it can be like a boat seeking a sword, such as the token of Memeland, the token of MFER, can be compared with APE to calculate the valuation, such as some products with financing that have released memes also have reference, for players familiar with valuation and boat seeking sword, this type of meme is relatively simple, and it is also easy to dig into.
⑥ Pump theme meme: This can be taken out separately, it can even integrate many of the above points, pump is just a way of issuance, but many gameplay has been derived, the bet point is very much, there are bets on CTO, bets on KOL, bets on hot spot transfer, bets on new and old narratives, etc., it is listed separately because pump should be the most difficult meme trading mode, complex and changeable, different traders have different pleasures in it, the small pool may be the only commonality, we can understand the world news through the daily pump release of the dev, this has become my main way of understanding the world.
There are some other small branches that I won't go into details, maybe I'll supplement them later.
The reason why I give so many examples of memes is that we need to know what kind of memes we are good at, what kind of memes are easy for us to make money? This is very different from the runes, the runes may be divided into application coins, institutional coins, community coins, etc., it can be sorted out simply; memes are really all-encompassing, the memes we usually talk about may not even be in the same track, there is an insurmountable cognitive gap between players.
I think small capital is suitable for betting on ①, ② and ⑤, these are relatively easy to judge the buy-in and sell-out points, and they are also the gameplay with the highest early success rate for me.
Large capital will try to ride the waves, and will try to dig and bet early.
Everything we do is to increase our principal, to lengthen our chips, we can clearly judge what we want to do, what has the highest success rate, and choose the appropriate trading method and diamond rhythm in it.
Essentially, if you can dig 1m-3m or more, except for luck and inside information, I don't think there's any other explanation, it's all about betting on probability, the longer our chips, the more likely we are to dig to high multiples.
When I was able to sweep MEW in 3-4 months, the essence was that my chips were relatively long at the time, so I bet with my eyes closed, and I was lucky and dug it up, so I made a fortune.
Similarly, this kind of diamond hand gameplay, in 4-6 months, the probability of being beaten up and dying is very high, I lost tens of thousands of dollars in the same strategy during those few months, so I thought a lot, the strategy was not used at the right time and the right target category.
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Theme Three. The Abyss of Gambling
Gambling big or small, it's all about probability, all the preparations and experience we do now are to calculate a probability and odds before making a subjective judgment, this is usually something that is lost through losing money; survivor bias exists in all of us, the most difficult part of gambling may still be to recognize what we are gambling on, what type, how to gamble, what are the opponents, what level our capital belongs to, and what kind of buying and selling strategy is suitable for the current pot, etc.
I like to gamble mainly because of dopamine, and some mental stimulation, I may be in a state of mental instability for a long time, and lack of happiness, so I like gambling, and it has become a habit over time.
But now I realize that the reason I can keep gambling is that on the one hand, I have a stable cash flow business income, reliable family support, and a lot of predictable risk resistance to support me to do so.
In the most chaotic period, I also took off-market funds, used leverage, etc., these are all gambling, nothing more than gambling bigger than ordinary people.
Most of the social activities in life are gambling, love, work, interpersonal relationships, health, even crossing the street and driving a car are gambling that the truck driver is not a lunatic.
Everything is chaotic and disorderly, there are some objective laws, but not many, most of the laws we can see are also the result of long-term deduction, and sometimes there will be deviations, just like in The Matrix, out of countless Neos, there was a savior, out of the Aliens, there was the Giant Tribe's creation, the Aliens, I don't know when I will put down these things and stop thinking.
But the unknown, the things that are full of expectations, always inject a lot of magic, even if we don't actively approach, we will be accidentally involved for various reasons; we can only accept and get used to it, and find our own position.
The most fundamental thing about all gambling is the family base, the cash flow, the health and stable social network, when these are no longer there, we can only go all in, become the most stupid roof guard.
I am very grateful to those who are willing to communicate with me, and I also hate those who look down on me or despise me, if I really had a gun in my hand, I might be the worst antisocial personality, but there are no ifs, life is a meme, different tracks of memes, you are an institutional meme, he is a hot spot meme, I am an original meme, living dramatically may be the most interesting, everyone's life can be written as a drama.
Gamble, keep gambling.</content>
