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Nick Research
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✨ Researcher | Delivering Actionable Insights 🔮 Options data wizard 🔭 📩 DM me: https://t.co/mjFbWtLscD
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Nick Research
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➥ What happens to thBILL yield if US cuts rates? the dynamics are actually very straightforward if ya understand how T-bills work - $thBILL is basically the crypto-native wrapper for short-duration U.S. Treasuries - a basket of 1-3 month T-bills made composable for DeFi - mainly Wellington’s tULTRA via Standard Chartered’s Libeara + FundBridge You can: - trade it on Uniswap - bridge it across @arbitrum /ETH/Base/HyperEVM via LayerZero - use it as collateral - hold and farm the underlying government yield right now thBILL sits around ~$214M mcap, ~$1.01 price, with ~$7.9M daily volume the key thing most people miss = thBILL yield = U.S. T-bill yield so when the Fed cuts, thBILL’s APY goes down in the same direction, just with a 1-3 month delay as the basket rolls over - 25 bps Fed cut → expect ~0.25-0.50% lower thBILL APY - after the recent cuts, T-bill yields sit around 4.0-4.25%, pulling thBILL into that same range, down from the 5.3% highs in 2023-2024 onchain implications I see: - lower APY makes thBILL less attractive vs riskier DeFi - but lower rates often push more capital into safe RWAs → potential TVL growth - delta-neutral or longer-duration bond strategies start looking better - thBILL stays the high-vol anchor in Theo’s liquidity stack if the Fed cuts another 25bps in Dec, i expect thBILL yield to slide into the ~3.75 - 4% zone still solid for a secure onchain T-bill asset & soon the thGLD too
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