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憨厚的麦总
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Ex-VC & Banker Turned Degen. See You In The Trenches
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憨厚的麦总
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I closed 80% of my short positions in the past few days (leaving only a few short positions in newly listed coins with high FDV that couldn't be controlled). Let me talk about my scenario for the future. It's unlikely to be accurate, as no one in the world can accurately predict the market. But my trading habit has always been to have a pre-set scenario in mind first, and then take it one step at a time during the trading process. The scenario: First, a small new low is reached to wipe out those who buy the dips the dip > A rebound begins in February or March > In March or April, the 94,000 resistance level is broken, and the market starts looking for new highs again > A new round of decline begins in April or May. During this phase, I will not open any positions on the major blue-chip stocks, especially breakout trades. If you look back at January to April 2022, you will understand. In the last round, this position was drawn horizontally for more than 100 days. Anyone who dared to play short-term with slightly higher leverage was ground to death. Bear markets are especially bad for frequent trading because they are full of trading patterns. I have also emphasized this point in my previous bear market survival guide. To survive in a bear market, the first thing is to control your hands.
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憨厚的麦总
12-17
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A few days ago, I discussed the topic of "How big is the AI market bubble?" with a friend. I'd like to share our discussion and then do some calculations together. First, let's roughly estimate the market size. Taking Chatgpt, which has the largest customer base, as an example, it currently has around 800 million monthly active users globally (covering 10% of the global population). Of these, 35-40 million are paying users. Let's take 37.5 million as the median, with most paying $20 per month. Assuming an average monthly revenue of $25, Chatgpt's annual revenue from its consumer-facing (C-end) market is $11.25 billion. Assuming that each of these 37.5 million customers pays for at least 3 AI services on average, the total C-end market size is $33.75 billion. (I think an average of 3 is a very optimistic assumption. As a heavy AI user myself, I currently pay for only 3-4 AI products, around $100 per month.) So, what is the market capitalization of the companies serving these AI C-end markets? Let's exclude the primary market (roughly estimated at around $1 trillion) and focus only on the seven major tech giants in the secondary market: Nvidia $4.4 trillion, Apple $3.9 trillion, Microsoft $3.7 trillion, Amazon $2.4 trillion, Google $2.4 trillion, Facebook $1.7 trillion, and Tesla $1.3 trillion. Except for Nvidia's $4.4 trillion market capitalization, which is purely AI-driven, the others' valuations are more or less not centered on AI. Assuming we only use 25% as the weighting for their AI market capitalization (I believe the actual premium for AI in the capital market is much higher than 25%, but for conservative estimates of a bubble, we'll use 25%), the result is $8.25 trillion (of course, there are many, many AI companies not included in this calculation, such as AMD, Palantir, Qualcomm, Oracle, etc.). $8.25 trillion divided by $33.75 billion = 244 times P/S. How do we understand this 244 times P/S ratio? We can refer to the P/S valuations of leading companies on March 24, 2000, the peak of the dot-com bubble. Amazon: 19x Cisco: 35x Qualcomm: 22x Microsoft: 26x IBM: 3x Oracle: 27x Intel: 16x After the dot-com bubble, most of these companies, even giants like Amazon and Microsoft, took 10-15 years to recover their 2000 bubble peaks. Of course, a P/S ratio of 244x doesn't necessarily indicate a large bubble in the AI sector. Currently, most AI revenue isn't from the $33.75 billion consumer market, but rather from "spending money on GPUs and infrastructure." Ultimately, these companies' investment in GPUs and infrastructure serves the consumer market, which, at least for now, isn't as large as many believe. The current dilemma facing the AI sector is that even though AI is quite usable, it remains a "production tool," not "productivity" itself. Therefore, AI service companies are still only paid for the "tool," but the capital market is valuing them based on the "productivity" narrative. What does this mean? If you ask a consumer or business owner to spend $50-$100 per month to equip their employees with AI, they're likely willing to spend that money, and that AI might indeed save the company the cost of one or two junior employees. But if you ask them to spend $2000-$3000, they're unlikely to be willing to spend that much. So even if the consumer market penetration rate increases tenfold to 375 million people (more than the US population of 350 million), a P/S valuation of 24.4x is still expensive in any industry. But who knows? Perhaps one day AGI will emerge, and AI will become productivity itself, and these AI companies won't be expensive anymore. Just like when we look back at 2000, were companies like Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft expensive? It's certainly much cheaper than it is now, but if you bought it in 2000, it would take 10-15 years to break even. And we don't know when AGI will arrive, or even if it will arrive at all. Let's just wait and see.
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憨厚的麦总
12-15
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I recently opened over 30 short positions, each worth 2-4 units. The selection criteria were either large-cap stocks with uncontrollable price movements and inflated valuations, or long-term junk stocks that had already started distributing shares, where investors had already unlocked their positions, or the project team had already conducted OTC trading. MON, ALLO, XPL, SOON, 2Z, SAHARA, ENA, SEI, HOME, STRK, ZKC, CC, PLUME, PROVE, ACH, MOVE, W, SAND, ZK, NXPC, ZEC, KITE... To this day, only one Kite remains red. It's often said that investing is about choosing the smartest people to work for you. This is especially true for short in the crypto . Project teams, market makers, agencies, KOLs, investors, those looking to profit from arbitrage opportunities, those chasing TVL (total value), OTC funds, and exchanges—every single smart person in this world is working for your short position every day. They're all competing to see who can execute their trades faster and more ruthlessly. This kind of investment allows me to sleep like a baby every night.
ALLO
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