憨厚的麦总

憨厚的麦总

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Ex-VC & Banker Turned Degen. See You In The Trenches

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Signal Clone Analysis

憨厚的麦总

Another 40-50% increase in SOL would be about right. twitter.com/Michael_Liu93/stat...

憨厚的麦总

Quick reminder, fam: If you didn’t sell earlier and are now stuck holding bags, can’t cut your losses, and don’t have extra funds to buy the dip, you’ll probably be tempted to go full degen and ape in with your BTC during the bear. Don’t do it—it’s a slippery slope. Just hold your BTC spot, delete your exchange account, and chill for a couple years; you’ll make it back. But if you start bottom-fishing with your BTC in a bear market, you’re basically doomed.

憨厚的麦总

Jeff Park's reasons for being bearish on silver are worth reading.

Why I have been worried about the silver trade, and what to expect going forward-

憨厚的麦总

It's not that you can't buy at this price level; there will definitely be a rebound. However, trying to catch a rebound in a bear market is a very poor trade in terms of cost-effectiveness. The later the bear market goes, the weaker the rebound becomes. You might bet on a 10-15% weekly rebound, but a 10-15% drop can happen in a single day. It's better to wait for a rebound and then short. The bottom of a bear market is formed by shocks, not by sharp spikes. If you think this is the absolute bottom of the bear market, I suggest you take a look at the US stock market and precious metals. One has only fallen for two days, and the other for a week. Then review the three conditions for buy the dips in a bear market. twitter.com/Michael_Liu93/stat...

憨厚的麦总

When gold and silver prices surge: BTC, being digital gold, will catch up. When gold and silver prices plummet: BTC, being a US stock asset, won't follow the decline. This week, we've reviewed the lesson for those who already learned from AI memes and Trump: If the leading stock (BTC) doesn't follow when the second-tier stock (BTC) does, the second-tier stock won't catch up; it will only oversold. 🤡

憨厚的麦总

现在的btc、美股、贵金属其实用去年的链上meme泡沫解释下就很容易明白了。黄金确实拉飞了，大宗资产拉飞的核心叙事是“全球的去美元化”，黄金的流动性也确实溢出了，溢出到了银、铂金、钯金、铝、铜。

憨厚的麦总

Last night was my first time trading precious metals. I opened a short position in silver, but didn't dare to open more. Today, I saw it had dropped by almost 20%. How can this market with a market capitalization of 5 trillion yuan fluctuate like a meme? Is it a problem of fund control and liquidity? Or is this market full of leveraged funds? Can any knowledgeable friends in this market provide a reasonable and well-founded explanation?

憨厚的麦总

My mental state is pretty good – not trading cryptocurrency but traveling instead. 😌

憨厚的麦总

Sharing my strategy from the last cycle when I was bottom-fishing BTC and ETH. For example, if my target entry for a long-term BTC position is $65,000, I’ll sell BTC $65k put options and simultaneously place a spot buy order at $65k. If BTC dumps to $65k, I catch the dip *and* pocket the premium from selling the put. If it doesn’t, I just collect the options premium as passive income. Check the screenshot below for a random example: I sold a $1,000 notional BTC put expiring Feb 27, 2026, with a $65k strike. Basically, I’m selling someone the right to sell me $1,000 worth of BTC at $65k on that date. You can see my margin balance instantly hit $1,150—$1,000 principle + $150 premium from selling the put. If BTC nukes below $65k by expiry, I buy BTC at $65k with my $1,150, catching the bottom. If not, my buy order doesn’t fill but I still bag the $150 premium (that’s ~15% yield in under a month). You can keep rolling this put until you finally catch the dip. This way, at the end of a bear market, you not only DCA the bottom but also get paid by short-term degens who are betting on volatility. Your real entry is way lower than just aping in spot. (PS: Always DYOR before using new trading tools. For example, BN’s options are European style and cash settled. To run a true cash-secured put, you need to place a $65k spot buy order at the same time. Know the mechanics before you play!)

憨厚的麦总

While I think OKX's products are indeed very well-made, and I have many friends on OKX, and even find Xu (the founder of OKX) increasingly endearing lately, I have no intention of buying OKB, nor do I understand those who do. An exchange has already decided to pursue a compliant listing and has even burned through its own holdings. If you're bullish on OKX, wait for the listing and buy its stock; why buy its cryptocurrency? The last exchange to pursue a compliant listing was Hashkey. The image below shows their platform token, HSK. As far as I know, their employees still have a large number of unlocked tokens to sell; there's no bottom to this token. This year, Shortbird is OKX's biggest builder; a year from now, Shortbird might be OKX's biggest hater. 😮‍💨 twitter.com/Michael_Liu93/stat...

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