Bitcoin Vector

Bitcoin Vector

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$BTC impulse reacts first, then Momentum ignites. Impulse is the trigger. Momentum is the confirmation. Expansion comes after. Right now, what we are watching for is BTC impulse to give the signal, with Momentum close to turning positive. That would be the clue that Bitcoin is starting to regain enough traction to attack the mid $70Ks again. twitter.com/bitcoinvector/stat...

Liquidity is the speed of money, how fast capital moves on-chain. When Bitcoin broke support, activity surged, coins moved faster, and participation spiked, a stress response driven by repositioning, and active demand. Since then, Liquidity has been eroding while price recovers. That is the key divergence. This move is being carried more by seller exhaustion than by strong and consistent demand. Without a reacceleration in activity, this remains a recovery attempt, not a confirmed expansion. twitter.com/bitcoinvector/stat...

Since last November, BTC’s Risk Index and BTC Spot ETF flows have moved almost in lockstep. When ETFs distribute, risk destabilizes and selling pressure dominates. When ETFs accumulate, risk decreases and drifts toward a low risk regime. Last week was the key: outflows stopped and ETF accumulation began, a signal the Risk Index was close to exiting capitulation. And so it did. If that accumulation persists, the base case is Risk Index cooling toward, and potentially below 25, where buyers regain control. @glassnode @swissblock__ twitter.com/bitcoinvector/stat...

Momentum exits extreme negative territory (-1) today. While the overall trend remains defensive, the pivot suggests a new bullish attempt. Will it gain the traction that January’s failed move lacked? twitter.com/bitcoinvector/stat...

Historically, the combination of Risk Index and Network Growth has been a powerful leading indicator for $BTC. We’ve seen that a massive drop in Network Growth (1) paired with a High-Risk Environment (2) often precedes sustained bullish trends. With $BTC traditionally being twitter.com/bitcoinvector/stat...

A significant bullish divergence is forming between $BTC and RSI. Given that similar setups have historically yielded 10% returns on these timeframes, a return to $95k is looking likely. The real signal lies in the confluence: if we see simultaneous growth in Network Fundamentals and Liquidity while BTC Dominance holds, we are likely at the genesis of a major bullish reversal.

Taking a closer look at BTC’s behavior over the last few weeks, the Impulse metric has been cycling between bullish and bearish signals since January 4th. We are currently sitting in a negative impulse state, further highlighting the lack of a clear, sustained trend. This constant rotation confirms that the market is still searching for direction rather than embarking on a structural move. To sustain a bullish environment, the $89.3k support must be defended. This doesn't strictly mean we can't dip below it, but any breach must be met with a swift reversal to confirm that the level is still being protected. A quick pivot back above this mark is essential to keep the upward short term bias intact.

As discussed yesterday, Bitcoin’s Network Growth is currently carving out lows not seen since the 2022 capitulation, while Liquidity continues to decline sharply. In 2022, this exact setup preceded a long consolidation phase that only resolved after a major liquidity bottom, which eventually paved the way for a powerful bull run. However, the current context demands caution. We have yet to exit this consolidation phase; both Network Growth and Liquidity remain in a state of "destruction." The price action we have witnessed since early January 2026 has been characterized by Small-Cap predominance rather than Bitcoin leadership. This suggests that the recent upside is primarily driven by speculation rather than solid, organic adoption. Historically, Bitcoin has anticipated sustainable macro moves through sustained predominance. In a healthy market environment, high BTC dominance concentrates value into the "engine" of the market. Once BTC consolidates after such a move, that accumulated value overflows into the rest of the ecosystem. This sequence is what validates a move as structural rather than purely speculative. For us to transition into a healthy, non-speculative market environment, we need to see Bitcoin Dominance reclaim its trend while Network Growth and Liquidity begin their recovery. Until the "engine" starts running, the foundation remains fragile. twitter.com/bitcoinvector/stat...

Every Alt Season acts as a definitive pivot for $BTC and the digital asset environment. Understanding these inflection points is key to navigating the macro trend. Is $BTC gearing up for its next major breakout?

The -25 bps cut came as expected, no hawkish surprise. But Powell’s warning that another cut in December is “far from assured” hit risk sentiment, pushing Bitcoin back below the holders’ cost-basis zone, a battleground offering no relief for bulls. 🧵 x.com/glassnode/status/1983612...… twitter.com/bitcoinvector/stat...

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