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林晚晚的猫
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林晚晚的猫
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The more alluring the narrative of ETF entry was back then, the more devastating the backlash is now. Total assets of BTC spot ETFs have fallen below $100 billion, a loss of over $80 billion from its peak of approximately $170 billion on October 6th last year, a drop of over 40%. Let me list some key figures: 1.ETF Investors are generally facing paper losses. According to Galaxy Research data, the average cost basis of US spot ETFs is approximately $84,000-$88,000. BTC is currently fluctuating between $65,000 and $70,000, meaning that almost everyone who bought ETFs has lost money. 2. Outflows are accelerating. January saw a net outflow of approximately $1.6 billion, the third worst month in ETF history. February saw even stronger outflows, with another $360 million flowing out in the first week and a single-day outflow of $545 million on February 4th. Year-to-date, ETFs have experienced a net outflow of at least $1.8 billion. Institutional funds are never believers; they're the first to flee when the macro environment shifts. Therefore, when prices fall, ETFs experience net outflows, forcing fund companies to dump shares in the spot market. As prices continue to fall, this triggers more redemptions and further dumping. Ultimately, ETFs integrated Bitcoin into the traditional financial system, but also fully introduced procyclicality and herding behavior. The higher ETFs were held in the past, the more decisively they are being abandoned now.
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林晚晚的猫
02-01
The "zero-barrier moment" for AI games has truly arrived. Google's Project Genie, a public beta version of its world model Genie 3, caused a sharp drop in US gaming stocks on Friday. Unity plummeted 24%, Roblox fell 13%, and Take-Two Interactive (GTA's parent company) dropped 10%. What happened? Simply put, you type a line of text, and AI generates a 3D world that you can walk into and explore. Because it's inaccessible to non-US users, I tried using a VPN with a US IP address but couldn't access it either. So I looked for feedback from some American users. It's true that you can control a character to run around, drive, fly, and interact. It's like entering a game, but this game is created by AI as it runs; as you move forward, it generates the path ahead in real time. I see that US users on Twitter are going crazy for it. Someone created a recursive world in the style of *Doom*, with walls entirely composed of screens displaying the game; someone made otter pilots traverse gothic cities; and someone else discovered that AI-generated characters' car door opening animations were incredibly natural—it's breathtaking. Wall Street should be panicking. Previously, game development required specialized engines, a large workforce, years of development, and hundreds of millions of dollars. Now, a single sentence can create a world. How much of Unity and Roblox's competitive advantage remains? Creating an interactive virtual world no longer requires specialized skills and massive capital. However, there are still major flaws. From what I've seen, it's only playable for 60 seconds, there's a lag in controls, and physics occasionally has bugs. Also, IP detection is extremely strict. Of course, it's clear that the trend of AI-generated games is irreversible. Google, Fei-Fei Li's World Labs, and Ant Financial's Lingbo are all relentlessly working on world models. 2026 will be the year of world model creation.
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林晚晚的猫
01-30
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An investor asked Unisplendour Microelectronics, an A-share listed company: "Does your company have any plans to acquire Nvidia?" The company secretary replied: "The company currently has no plans to acquire Nvidia." While we now consider this a joke, the Unisplendour group does indeed have a tradition of "acquiring everything." Its former leader, Zhao Weiguo, was known as the "chip fanatic." In 2015, he made a $23 billion offer for Micron Technology. Those who trade US stocks know that Micron is the world's fourth-largest semiconductor manufacturer and the only DRAM memory giant in the US, sharing the market with Samsung and SK Hynix. At the time, Micron's market capitalization was less than $20 billion, meaning Unisplendour was offering a 19% premium. If successful, China would have directly acquired a core player in the memory chip industry, completely reshaping the industry landscape. However, Micron refused, reportedly due to a direct intervention from then-US President Obama. That same year, Zhao Weiguo also publicly challenged Morris Chang to acquire TSMC, stating that Taiwan's semiconductor industry was doomed if it didn't open up. In six years, Tsinghua Unigroup completed over 60 acquisitions, its assets ballooning from 1.3 billion to nearly 300 billion. In 2021, its debts collapsed, leading to bankruptcy reorganization. In 2025, Zhao Weiguo was sentenced to death with a two-year reprieve, while TSMC's market capitalization reached $1.77 trillion that same year. Time has no time to mock anyone; everyone simply goes their own way.
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