Prediction markets are like the California Gold Rush of 1849, the stock market boom in Shenzhen and Shanghai in 1992, and the cryptocurrency boom of 2017.
If you do a little research, you can discover the essence of emerging opportunities: just like when the Chinese stock market was just starting in 1992, ordinary people only needed to buy in early to get rich from scattered "original shares" and seize the opportunity of reform and opening up.
During the 2017 cryptocurrency boom, early birds who bought Bitcoin or participated in ICOs with a few hundred dollars became millionaires overnight, while ordinary retail investors made money like picking candy from a baby during the bull market; (these are the big players in the crypto today).
The California Gold Rush of 1849 is even more classic. A group of adventurous commoners flocked to the West, and with just a shovel and luck, they could dig up gold that would change their lives and instantly turn their lives around from the bottom.
This kind of craze is a once-in-a-lifetime event, often erupting before the mainstream can even react. The prediction market is at a similar starting point—platforms like Polymarket are just emerging, and event betting (such as election, sports, and technology predictions) has low barriers to entry and high returns. Ordinary people only need to participate with a small amount to ride this wave of "information asymmetry" dividends. Early entrants will reap exponential growth, and missing out will be like regretting not buying Bitcoin when it was $1.
Both of these companies are now conducting on-the-ground promotions, much like the speculators who went to the countryside of Shanghai in the 1990s to buy rural women's ID cards.
Despite the current global chaos, "chaos is a ladder."
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