1. Current Recommended Direction
- Short-term bearish outlook for BTC: A significant drop to the $60,000-$65,000 range is expected in the first half of 2026, with substantial downward pressure. A rebound is anticipated by the end of the year, making it suitable for tentative entry on dips.
- Long-term bullish outlook: Citigroup's target price is $143,000. Arthur Hayes predicts a potential surge to $200,000 by late 2026, emphasizing that the Fed's "reserve management purchases," similar to QE, will drive up BTC prices.
2. Position and Risk Management Recommendations
- Light positions or trial trades are recommended for the first half of 2026, with a focus on mitigating the risk of a sharp decline...