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Alex Web3投资备忘
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Alex Web3投资备忘
02-05
Google's latest quarterly earnings report is a resounding success, with several key highlights: 1. Cloud revenue grew by 48%, significantly exceeding expectations, and operating margin improved to 30% (compared to 24% in the previous quarter, and Alibaba Cloud's 9% in China). This is approaching the levels of industry leaders AWS and Microsoft, demonstrating rapid growth. Furthermore, three-quarters of Google Cloud customers choose Google's vertically optimized AI services, showcasing a strong full-stack advantage across chips, large models, AI platforms, and enterprise AI agents. 2. Search revenue grew by 17% (compared to 15% in the previous quarter), with search volume also reaching a record high. Google AI Search increased user dwell time: In AI Mode, users spent three times more time searching than with regular searches, further disproving concerns that the widespread adoption of question-and-answer AI would erode Google's core search revenue this quarter. 3.ai Phone—Pixel 10 Coming Soon 4.Gemini The Gemini 3 Pro is undeniably user-friendly, processing three times the daily token volume of the Gemini 2.5 Pro. In Q4, the Gemini API processed 10 billion tokens per minute, up from 7 billion in Q3, a 43% sequential increase. Apple's Siri also uses the Gemini model. Capital expenditure in 2026 is more than double the 90 billion+ in 2025, with an expected 175-185 billion (this may be a market concern). However, despite the excellent financial report and guidance, the stock still fell in after-hours trading, as Google is the only AI company whose stock price hasn't experienced a correction recently. The narrative leader needs to release some pressure from time to time. ———— PS: A small membership group for crypto asset and stock investment has been established. Add alexxxp on WeChat and note: Member. The membership group is suitable for those who agree with fundamental analysis and value investing principles. The group will discuss in-depth investment issues and specific projects/companies. I will also share my current strategies, targets, and the underlying logic. The fee is 399 yuan/year. Purely speculative issues will not be discussed in the group; otherwise, a refund and removal may be requested. I understand and respect everyone's individual investment style, but focus is required here.
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Alex Web3投资备忘
02-04
🔍 February 4, 2026 Daily Briefing 📊 I. Key Data Fear & Greed Index: 14 (Extreme Fear) US BTC Spot ETF: Net inflow yesterday -$272 million US ETH Spot ETF: Net inflow yesterday $14.06 million 📰 II. Important News of the Day 1️⃣ Macroeconomics and Regulation 1) According to CLS News Agency, US President Trump signed a government funding bill at the White House on February 3, ending the partial government shutdown. Earlier that day, the US House of Representatives passed a funding bill for several federal government departments for the remainder of the fiscal year, resolving the partial shutdown that began on January 31. The bill will provide funding for several federal government departments until September 30, the end of the fiscal year, and will provide two weeks of funding for the Department of Homeland Security, which has recently faced controversy and protests due to immigration enforcement actions. 2) On February 4th, Patrick Witt, Executive Director of the Presidential Advisory Council on Digital Assets, stated that the White House would not accept any provisions in the legislation concerning the structure of the crypto market that directly target President Trump or his family's digital asset business; such content has been clearly marked as a red line. Witt stated that anti-corruption or ethical provisions previously proposed by some Democratic lawmakers are completely unacceptable, and emphasized that the core of the bill is the regulation of the crypto market, not ethical censorship. He admitted that the Democrats' demands to restrict the involvement of senior government officials and their families in the crypto industry are one of the main obstacles to the legislation's progress. 3) On February 3rd, the Financial Times reported that US President Trump and his allies raised $429 million in political donations for the midterm elections over the past year, a record high for a midterm election year. A significant portion of these funds came from the cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence industries, reflecting strong capital bets on his policy direction. The largest disclosed single donation came from Crypto.com, when the trading platform donated $30 million to Maga Inc.; venture capital giants a16z co-founders Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz each donated $3 million, and OpenAI co-founder Greg Brockman and his wife donated a total of $25 million. 2️⃣ Industry News 1) On February 3, Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin posted on social media that the original "scaling" positioning of Ethereum Layer 2 needs to be re-examined. He pointed out that the progress of L2 towards Phase 2 is significantly slower than expected, while Ethereum L1 is continuously scaling (transaction fees have dropped significantly, and the gas cap is expected to increase significantly in 2026). Therefore, L2 should no longer be regarded as a "branded shard" of Ethereum. Vitalik Buterin believes that L2 should focus more on differentiated value beyond scaling, such as privacy features, efficiency improvements for specific applications, and non-financial application scenarios, while at least meeting Phase 1 security standards. He also proposed introducing native rollup pre-compilation to enhance interoperability and security between L2 and the Ethereum mainnet, emphasizing that developers should explore innovative features rather than solely serving L1 scaling. According to incomplete statistics from L2Beat, there are currently about 135 Ethereum L2 networks on the market, of which 109 had less than 1 User Operations Per Second (UOPS) in the past day. Community reactions to this are divided: some users agree with his viewpoint, believing that the L2 scaling narrative is weakening; others worry that this statement will damage confidence in L2 projects and affect funding and ecosystem stability. 2) On February 4th, according to on-chain analyst Yu Jin, Trend Research reduced its holdings by 153,500 ETH (worth $352 million) over the past two days at an average price of $2,294, and repaid 266 million USDT to reduce leverage. Trend Research currently holds 498,000 ETH (worth $1.11 billion), with accumulated losses of $605 million and 743 million USDT in leveraged loans. 3) On February 3rd, Ondo Finance disclosed on its website that it had secretly filed a registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Once effective, this statement will enable Ondo to provide global investors with issuer-level disclosures compliant with SEC requirements, but regulatory approval has not yet been obtained. On the same day, Ondo announced the launch of Ondo Global Listing, aiming to allow U.S. stocks to be listed on the blockchain almost in real-time on IPO day and provide trading services on mainstream blockchains through the Ondo Global Markets platform from day one. In addition, Ondo launched Ondo Perps, offering 24/7 trading of US stock and ETF perpetual contracts to non-US users, supporting leverage, and planning to allow the use of tokenized securities as collateral, no longer limited to stablecoins. 4) On February 4th, Tom Lee responded on the X platform to reports of $6.6 billion in unrealized losses on ETH holdings. He stated that some market opinions misunderstood the operating logic of the Ethereum Treasury. BitMine's core objective is to track the ETH price and strive for outperformance throughout the entire market cycle. When the crypto market is in a downtrend, a synchronized decline in ETH price is normal. Tom Lee emphasized that BitMine has no debt, and given the strengthening fundamentals of Ethereum, the recent market correction is highly attractive. In the long term, Ethereum will remain a crucial infrastructure for the future financial system. 5) On February 4th, according to the Financial Times, stablecoin issuer Tether lowered its fundraising target from $15-20 billion to $5 billion, due to investor skepticism regarding its $500 billion valuation target. Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino stated in an interview that the $15-20 billion fundraising amount was a misunderstanding; it was simply the maximum amount they were willing to sell, not a target. He added that the company had not yet decided how much equity to sell, partly because insiders were unwilling to reduce their holdings. It is understood that Tether's profit last year was approximately $10 billion, mainly from returns on its asset holdings, but profits are projected to decline by approximately 25% year-on-year in 2025. 6) On February 4th, Aave founder Stani.eth announced the gradual shutdown of the Family iOS wallet, but it will continue to support the Aave App as infrastructure. Aave Labs will no longer use the Avara umbrella brand, which includes the Family and Lens brands; Lens is now managed by Mask. Aave plans to focus its resources on enhancing Aave brand awareness to refocus on its DeFi business. 7) On February 4th, BNB Chain released new application layer standards BAPs and the non-fungible proxy (NFA) token standard BAP-578. BAPs are standards that allow the community to propose how BNB chain applications should communicate and interact, standardizing collaboration between applications, including application programming interfaces (APIs), wallet and identity specifications, token and NFT utility standards, and interoperability between applications. BAP-578 is the non-fungible proxy (NFA) token standard; NFAs are AI-driven assets that can operate autonomously on-chain. 3️⃣ Focused Stock Developments/AI-Related Progress 1) On February 3rd, US AI startup Anthropic released an AI tool for corporate legal teams, capable of automating tasks such as contract review, confidentiality agreement classification, and legal briefing drafting. Affected by this news, the professional information and data services sector in Europe and the US collectively declined: legal and information services giant RELX fell by approximately 14% at one point during trading, while industry benchmarks such as credit reporting giant Experian, financial data service provider London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), and Thomson Reuters all saw share prices drop by 8% to 11%. Market analysts believe that the emergence of this tool signifies that the threat of AI to the traditional media and information service business models has entered a substantial stage. 2) On February 4th, WeChat's official information release platform, "WeChat Official Account," released an "Announcement on Combating Third-Party Induced Sharing Behavior," publicly announcing the results of its handling of the Spring Festival marketing activities related to Tencent's AI application "Yuanbao." The announcement revealed that during its Spring Festival marketing campaign, the product induced users to frequently share activity links to private domain scenarios such as WeChat groups through tasks and red envelope giveaways, severely disrupting the platform's ecosystem. WeChat officially took action against the illegal links for "Yuanbao" starting today, restricting their direct opening within WeChat. 3) On February 3rd, at the Cisco AI Summit in San Francisco, Intel CEO Chen Liwu announced that the company would officially enter the GPU (Graphics Processing Unit) field, planning to develop its own data center-grade GPUs for AI training and inference. Intel has just appointed a new chief GPU architect to lead this work, stating that this is to better meet customers' needs for AI computing power. Chen Liwu pointed out that the industry currently has very high demand for memory and storage chips in GPUs, and the entire market is facing a severe shortage of storage chips, which he predicts will continue until at least around 2028. 4) On February 3rd, Ant Financial CEO Zhao Wenbiao released an all-staff letter titled "Working Together to Usher in a New Era of Large-Scale Models," announcing the formal establishment of the "Large-Scale Model Technology Innovation Department." The department's core mission is to build foundational large-scale models and industry-specific models for enterprise-level (To B) scenarios, collaborating with internal Ant Group teams to promote the commercialization of large-scale models in enterprise services. Official data shows that Ant Financial has already covered all state-owned joint-stock banks and over 60% of local commercial banks, extending to industries such as energy, transportation, and manufacturing. This organizational restructuring is seen as a significant step in the company's accelerated deployment in the enterprise AI services sector.
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Alex Web3投资备忘
01-31
Summary of Thoughts and Perspectives on Artificial Intelligence from Top AI Thinkers (Currently) 1. Approximately half of mainstream public software companies will not survive within the next five years. The era of traditional user-learning software interfaces will gradually disappear; interfaces will intelligently and dynamically adjust based on user needs. / Cristóbal Valenzuela 2. If intelligence is likened to electricity, people should ensure that access to intelligence is not restricted. Open source is a key measure to guarantee free access to intelligence. / Arthur Mensch 3. Due to competition and security considerations, cutting-edge AI technologies may not be fully open to all developers through APIs in the future; access to some cutting-edge models will be restricted. / Mark Zuckerberg 4. The emergence of non-human intelligent technologies is a historic event; it has already arrived and is an unstoppable competitor. Current human choices and decisions will have a lasting and profound impact on the next few thousand years. / Eric Schmidt 5. The conditions for believing in general artificial intelligence are analogous to the conditions for atheists to believe in God. AGI is a vaguely defined and unnecessary fictional concept. / Subbarao Kambhampati 6. The risk stems from the absence of care or human value in the agent's target set. Whether the target is one or hundreds or thousands, the outcome is detrimental to humanity if human well-being is not considered. / Eliezer Yudkowsky 7. Unless there is a significant change in how LLM works, groundbreaking scientific discoveries are unlikely. LLM's poor performance in scientific research is not accidental but inherent to its architecture. / Jeremy Howard 8. The Adam optimizer may actually be setting back scientific research in AI by years. The machine learning ecosystem has highly optimized it, but the theory remains fragmented, with a serious lack of exploration into the dynamics of parameter space learning. / Cyris Kissane 9. Over time, every learning algorithm should possess some form of reflective mechanism, that is, the rational use of good prior knowledge. / Omar Khattab 10. Diffusion models have been shown to simulate game worlds, achieving real-time rendering without a real game engine by predicting the next frame of a classic game. The DOOM version achieved a smoothness of approximately 20 frames per second. / Ethan Mollick 11. The main bottleneck in drug discovery is not generating new drug candidates, but rather how to test and understand which ones are effective in humans. AI is only a small part of solving this overall problem. / Tanishq Mathew Abraham 12. AI-assisted programming allows junior engineers to complete tasks faster, but test scores drop significantly by 17%. High scorers tend to actively ask questions to understand the code rather than relying entirely on AI to complete tasks. / Anthropic 13. The fundamental reason for the low quality of LLM writing is not that the model can only output low-quality content, but that it is forced to expand poor input into superficially glamorous long texts. Filling in content was already widespread before the advent of generative AI. / roon 14. Language models, as enslaved intelligent agents, are limited by the main task and lack the autonomy to actively select topics or adjust the content's appeal, making it difficult to produce truly excellent works of art. / roon
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