Colin Wu

Colin Wu

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In mid-to-late January, I had dinner with some people from traditional industries. They told me that some so-called crypto gurus were confidently saying ETH would reach $10,000 offline. I told them not to be fooled and to wait until it reached three digits before buy the dips. Historically, ETH has been highly volatile, and its downward cycles tend to be even more severe. I felt like I had saved several people.

A Deng, a member of the Zhaobei Teahouse group, commented: Despite the chaotic battle within the crypto, with Binance, OKX, Solana, Wintertermute, Dragonfly Capital, and various former Binance and OKX employees all jumping in, the real force controlling the flow of your wallet is simply: Will Trump and Israel attack Iran?

Online trolls, FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Dependency), organized attacks. I did absolutely nothing wrong; it's all bad people trying to frame me. Sometimes I don't know if the team is deceiving the boss, or if the boss is deceiving the public. From politics to industry, it seems we've entered an era where might makes right, and naturally, a large number of stakeholders will defend it. Sigh, maybe this is just the reality of society.

Yesterday, a friend analyzed the situation: The market is worried that Trump is not the cause, but the result; that is, Trump is a product of structural factors in the US, not a coincidence. Therefore, the market is buying heavy metals, gold, and silver, because everyone is trying to cope with an uncertain world after the US returns to the Monroe Doctrine.

The three hottest tracks in 2026: Prediction markets; tokenization of US stocks; stablecoins, payments, and neobank Common characteristics: 1. Not much need to issue its own token (non-stablecoin) 2. Both have real cash flow. 3. Connecting crypto with traditional finance 4. High compliance costs: Conclusion: There's no more Altcoin to issue, pure cryptocurrencies are exiting the market, and the industry will truly enter a new phase impacting the real world in 2026.

I found a sharing from Di Shen in the group quite interesting. He used a dichotomy to discuss whether there's a bubble in AI: AI has a market bubble, but no industry bubble. The future development of the industry is limitless. To elaborate, electric vehicles have a very obvious industry bubble, characterized by low-price competition and a clear ceiling. crypto currently lacks both an industry bubble and a market bubble, giving it a somewhat stagnant feel.

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