陶瑞 TaoRay

108,328 Twitter followers

Posts

The online hype surrounding Yushu Robotics and the Chinese robots' performance at the Spring Festival Gala is excessive! Due to my investment in the primary market, I have some knowledge of the robotics field, and I've always admired China's technological progress. However, I must say fairly and objectively that China is not only not far ahead in this field, but also lags far behind the world's advanced levels! Yushu's exaggerated movements are nothing more than "good motors + precise control," but China excels in both of these aspects. Therefore, although China is a manufacturing powerhouse, almost all industrial robots (robotic arms) used in its manufacturing production lines are imported from the four major manufacturers. China's precision and reliability are far from sufficient. If it were truly advanced, there would be no need for humanoid robots; it could immediately seize the multi-billion dollar industrial robot market. However, almost no manufacturing industry in China uses domestically produced robots. Only logistics industries, which don't require much precision, use domestically produced robots, let alone the more demanding medical field. I suspect that the robots in Yushu's performances are simply using imported motors, plus a lot of manual debugging and programming for the single program's movements at the Spring Festival Gala, and have little to do with AI. Other countries and established companies aren't incapable of making them; they simply haven't chosen to. These flashy movements do nothing to demonstrate any advancement. True progress will only come when numerous Chinese automobile production lines begin using domestically produced robots—that will be a real-world application and market test! Right now, it's all just a spectacle for outsiders, while insiders see the real substance. The hype and gimmicks far outweigh the actual results.

陶瑞 TaoRay

01-09

Thread

Cryptocurrency has turned an entire generation of young Chinese people who know how to bypass internet censorship (who should have been the elite and hope of the future) into gamblers. The internet, by peddling Chinese anxiety and Western get-rich-quick schemes, has made these young people the "leeks" repeatedly harvested by international exploiters and influential Chinese KOL, resulting in dwindling wealth and at least a decade of wasted life. Only a tiny fraction have actually made money. I advise young people to turn back before it's too late, stop gambling, and hold onto better assets.

陶瑞 TaoRay

12-28

Gold or silver? Looking at the price movements of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Altcoin in the past, one should be able to predict the subsequent trends of gold, silver, and other precious metals. We must use first principles to think about financial issues. Bitcoin's past surge was essentially due to excessive money printing, leading to an explosive increase in total social wealth. However, this wealth was unevenly distributed, resulting in a large amount of idle funds from wealthy individuals and speculative funds from ordinary people seeking alternative sources of capital (the stock market is one such source, but it has a fixed valuation model linked to company performance. However, the rate of money printing far exceeds company profits, so alternative sources of capital must be found, and cryptocurrencies capitalized on this trend). I said a few years ago that buying Bitcoin, the digital gold, is like buying real gold. Now, more and more people in the market (especially governments) are starting to think this way (I've already explained why gold has an advantage over Bitcoin). So, funds are starting to flow into gold, this ancient reservoir of wealth, while Bitcoin is slowly being neglected. But the logic of capital operation remains unchanged. The precious metals market is like the crypto of yesteryear, with gold like Bitcoin and silver like Ethereum. First, the leading stock skyrockets, then speculators, seeing it's too high, start buying the second-best, which, due to its smaller market capitalization, rises even faster than the leader. The third and fourth-best can even increase dozens of times. But there's a saying in the financial world: buy the leader. Therefore, the prices of gold and silver will soon resemble those of Bitcoin and Ethereum. The leading gold and silver will rise first, steadily increasing. Then the second-largest gold and silver will rise sharply, followed by significant fluctuations. But in the end, those who buy the leading gold and silver will still make more money. Of course, there are other considerations as well. Silver has a strong production cycle, sometimes experiencing tight inventory and sometimes oversupply. Its market capitalization is too small, leading to too much speculation and a lack of central bank support. Gold has risen significantly this year, but silver and other precious metals have risen even more. However, I dare not touch silver, which has experienced large price swings. I don't have the ability to time the market; I only dare to invest in gold, which I believe will continue to rise in the long term. If you enter the market at this point, you'll see gold outperform silver very quickly, even without a long time commitment.

Don't think you have enough money now and can relax. In today's world of global debt monetization and rapid currency devaluation, the speed at which your wealth shrinks will exceed your imagination. Back in 1979, when China's reform and opening up had just begun, my family exchanged tens of thousands of US dollars in Hong Kong. In the late 1970s, the interest income alone was several thousand US dollars a year. At the time, we thought we could live comfortably in China for the rest of our lives. Back then, there weren't many people with tens of thousands of dollars in their workplace. A full professor's salary in a university was less than 200 yuan a month. Only couples who were both professors, artists, or high-ranking officials could save tens of thousands of dollars. The richest were artists. At that time, a famous Cantonese opera performer in Guangzhou earned 60 yuan for a single performance, which could earn several hundred yuan a month. Back then, this seemed like an astronomical figure, but now several hundred yuan a month isn't even enough for basic welfare. My family exchanged our money in Hong Kong, where the exchange rate was just over 1.5%. Back then, the Federal Reserve aggressively raised interest rates, and in the late 1970s, the interest rate on US dollar deposits in Hong Kong was over 10%. My family thought that with those tens of thousands of dollars and such high interest rates, we could live comfortably for the rest of our lives. In 1979, the annual interest income was several thousand US dollars, exceeding the lifetime earnings of most Chinese families. However, money became increasingly worthless and simply wasn't enough. If one had bought Berkshire Hathaway stock in 1979, it would be worth tens of millions of US dollars today. Therefore, financial management is crucial; merely preserving wealth will cause your fortune to decline significantly. Furthermore, many people never accumulate their first pot of gold for investment. There's a saying that the first million in life is earned through hard work, while many subsequent million-dollar sums are earned through investment. Therefore, the faster you earn your first million, the sooner you're halfway to success. However, too many young people only know how to consume, not save, living paycheck to paycheck, and never earning their first pot of gold. Therefore, there are two hurdles to wealth: earning your first pot of gold and knowing how to invest.

-- END --