Morgan Stanley:
Momentum's worst drawdown in 3 yrs *exceeding* DeepSeek, not excluding DeepSeek
add SaaS to the Contra AI trades
Momentum’s worst drawdown in 3 years (exceeding DeepSeek) as a one-way move in is met with laggards rallying across every sector.
Much more focus on factor vol as Pure Momentum goes from best day on record to worst day back to back. Clear relationship between weakness today and positioning/YTD flows: Memory -6%, AI Power -8%, Nat Security -10%, Bitcoin Miners -15%
'Contra AI' trades leading and part of the driver for strength in Laggards: AAPL, Early Cycle Cyclicals, Chemicals, Regional Banks
Sharp momo move in absence of major catalyst putting more focus on ‘re-risking to reversal’ call from MS QDS (high momentum exposure, increasing overlap btwn high beta + high momentum stocks + weaker retail seasonality)
