avatar
老司机投资频道
Follow
Posts
avatar
老司机投资频道
04-01
Yesterday, the Iranian president called for peace and an end to the war, and now many people are betting on the war to end. However, there's a problem: the Iranian president doesn't have real power; the Revolutionary Guard holds that power. So many people are bullish lately, but I feel it's best to be cautious. The best course of action is to refrain from any activity recently. I've recently been using AI to monitor metrics for BTC, ETH, etc., and so far there's no signal suggesting I should long. During a bear market, everyone should eat and drink as usual. The World Cup and presidential election are expected to boost the market. For those looking to place orders, you could try shorting gold. After all, many in the market are betting that gold prices might fall once the war ends.
BTC
0.22%
avatar
老司机投资频道
03-07
BTC plummeted again yesterday, let's analyze the reasons. 1. Black Swan Event in US Economic Data Yesterday, the Federal Reserve released employment data, predicting an increase of 55,000 jobs, but the figure changed to a decrease of 92,000. Market concerns about stagflation and slowdown may lead to interest rate cuts. 2. The Middle East war escalates, turning from a short-term conflict into a long-term one. Yesterday, Trump tweeted that this strike was not a short-term deterrent, but rather a move to replace his own regime. This means this is a prolonged attack, not a short one. The Strait of Hormuz is already overflowing with oil; if the attack continues, production will have to be halted. Once production stops, it takes a long time to resume, and obtaining crude oil becomes very difficult. Global assets have begun to withdraw from risky assets, most notably yesterday alone, with Asian markets seeing a 6% decrease in funds. 3. Fewer interest rate cuts Many analysts initially predicted two interest rate cuts this year, but now it's expected to be one. The crypto was finally showing signs of improvement, and now it's gone again 😭😭😭
BTC
0.22%
avatar
老司机投资频道
03-05
I just asked AI about the reasons for this round of market surge. He said it was because of the war. Actually, I don't agree. If you've been looking at ETFs lately, you'll have noticed that US ETFs have started buying again, for about a week now. Then X will soon launch its wallet and community tools, allowing all X users to join the crypto. In addition, many American KOLs have placed orders, so the negative factors have been fully priced in. In addition to expectations of interest rate cuts I checked the BTC moving average resistance level, and it's around $78,000. I think it would be good if the rebound could reach $78,000. Don't have too high expectations for a BTC rebound; there are too many people being liquidated, and there aren't many newbies left in the market.
BTC
0.22%
-- END --