Phyrex

Phyrex

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Before I knew it, it was dawn. The weekend was alright; although the war with Iran continues, its impact on the stock market seems minimal, indicating that investor sentiment is still relatively positive. The war may soon escalate to the next level. Trump's final deadline for Iran is likely Monday's opening of the US stock market. Last time it was TACO; I wonder what will happen this time. The probability of another TACO is probably low. However, it's true that Trump said the Strait of Hormuz would be more open after the US withdrawal of troops; more and more ships have been passing through recently. Iran is now roughly divided into three categories: those completely unrelated to Iran are the easiest to pass through, such as China and Russia; then those without direct conflict, such as Europe, can pass under certain conditions. The US and Israel are completely barred from passage. The US also avoids the Strait of Hormuz; this is probably Israel and some Middle Eastern countries. The key will likely be how far the war escalates if it does on Monday. It would be good if the weekend went smoothly. Looking back at the Bitcoin data, as mentioned earlier, there wasn't much activity; the turnover rate and trading volume were both quite low—typical weekend activity. Under these circumstances, unless there's very bad news, there generally won't be much fluctuation. twitter.com/PhyrexNi/status/20...

In fact, if we define high-net-worth investors as those holding more than 10 Bitcoins, then we can see that the holdings in this range have been steadily increasing over the past year. This indicates that high-net-worth investors are still interested in increasing their holdings, regardless of the Bitcoin price. Even after the price of Bitcoin fell below $70,000, smaller investors holding less than 10 BTC were buying BTC. This is the current trend. Although many people think the current price is still high, the consensus among investors tells us that the current price is indeed quite attractive. More importantly, the outstanding balance on exchanges is decreasing, which suggests that the increase in holdings by high-net-worth investors is more likely to be from genuine users.

Sometimes seeing this kind of data is really infuriating. It's not that the data is wrong; the data is correct. It's true that #BTC holdings in the 1,000 to 10,000 BTC range have decreased over the past year. But this doesn't mean they've gone from being the largest buyers in the market to being sellers. This is absolutely wrong, because this range could include institutional accounts, exchange accounts, custodian accounts, or even exchange wallets. It's more appropriate to look at it from a higher perspective. For example, in the chart I used, you can see that the yellow line represents Bitcoin addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC, which is decreasing, while the blue line represents addresses holding between 10,000 and 100,000 BTC, whose holdings have increased over the past year. The green line represents addresses holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC. This holding has been slowly increasing. So, to assume that a whale is selling off just by looking at one line is simply misleading! twitter.com/PhyrexNi/status/20...

Recently, besides Binance, I've seen many other exchanges launching USD1 investment programs, offering rewards for staking USD1. This is almost identical to my prediction during the CLARITY bill debate. Since USDC is pegged to Coinbase, the inability of stablecoins to generate interest inevitably creates promotional difficulties. USD1's current collaborations with other exchanges beyond Binance are aimed at gaining trading volume outside the US market and minimizing the impact of CLARITY if it takes effect. twitter.com/PhyrexNi/status/20...

The Iranian military stated that if the US and Israel escalate the war, the entire region will become hell for them. A spokesman for the Iranian military's Khatham Anbia Central Command warned the US and Israel that any further escalation would be met with a severe, region-wide retaliation. "Don't forget, if the aggression expands, the entire region will become your hell," the Iranian spokesman said. "The illusion of defeating the Islamic Republic of Iran has become a quagmire in which you will sink." Trump has reiterated his ultimatum to Iran, demanding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and stated that if Iran fails to comply by Monday, it will face "hellish" consequences. twitter.com/PhyrexNi/status/20...

For a long time, we've been saying that traditional investors haven't returned to the cryptocurrency space, and there's been a significant sell-off in Bitcoin spot ETFs. However, looking at weekly data, February's situation was indeed quite pessimistic, with a substantial number of traditional investors leaving the market. But starting in March, we can clearly see three consecutive weeks of net inflows. Although there was still an outflow in the last week of March, the amount wasn't very large. This doesn't mean that traditional investors have started buying again. It likely represents that even traditional investors, and cryptocurrency investors themselves, have entered a similar state: while they have little interest in buying, they also have little interest in selling. Investors holding large amounts of cryptocurrency are very likely not the counterparty to the spot price.

The greatest benefit of data isn't telling us when prices are at their lowest or highest, but rather revealing the current "consistent action" of most investors. We can judge the trend resulting from this action through "volume." We can clearly see that although Bitcoin's price has been hovering at a relatively low level, a large amount of Bitcoin is starting to flow out of exchanges. While this doesn't necessarily mean investors are buying, it does indicate that the number of tokens available for sale is decreasing. While we can't say that this is the absolute lowest price, it does suggest that the current price range has attracted many investors and funds to accumulate coins, and judging from the accumulating trend, the buying dominance hasn't ended yet.

The recent Bitcoin transfer data to exchanges also reflects this trend. After a large-scale exit in February, selling by holders gradually decreased, with each week showing a lower volume than the previous one. Looking at a longer timeframe, the current volume of Bitcoin transferred to exchanges, presumably for sale, is at its lowest level in the past year, indicating that most investors are not very interested in the current price. twitter.com/PhyrexNi/status/20...

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