It's March 12th now, and the whole world is short of money, but crypto is the first thing to be punished!
I'll put the conclusion first:
It is now 312 o'clock.
It's not the price that's similar.
It is the selling method, the liquidity status, and the participants' reactions.
Over $2.6 billion was liquidated in the crypto market within 24 hours;
BTC briefly plummeted to around $60,000;
The strength of Bitcoin's weekly oversold signal is comparable to that of June 2022;
The Ahr999 buy the dips indicator has dropped to 0.27.
This value has only appeared in two historical instances:
FTX crashed, and so did 312.
The question now is never how much it will fall.
Instead, the market chooses to survive at the same time.
1. The key to this round of decline in ETFs is not on-chain, but rather a black swan event.
In ETFs.
BlackRock's IBIT saw a record-breaking single-day trading volume of $10.7 billion and an option premium of approximately $900 million.
BTC and SOL both plummeted.
However, CeFi did not see a corresponding scale of liquidation.
This is unlike retail investors.
It doesn't seem like a normal portfolio adjustment.
More and more traders are suspicious:
Large hedge funds holding IBIT positions were liquidated in options or leveraged structures; the scale of such liquidations is enormous and has not yet been disclosed.
And it is rumored in the market:
These funds may have come from non-crypto hedge funds in Hong Kong, China.
If true,
This drop is not just a problem in the crypto.
Instead—
For the first time, the external financial structure has broken down in a crypto ETF.
2. What drives people to sell is never emotion, but rather cash flow pressure.
312 is never a time for "everyone to panic".
It's about who can't hold on any longer and who sells first.
What you are seeing now is a series of very clear actions:
Ethereum's treasury, ETHZilla, abandoned its hold during the downturn and instead turned to the Trump family's WLFI project, a real estate tokenization, selling 73 WBTC and cashing out approximately $5.037 million.
Aave founder | _2024111120230_ | Sold 4,504 ETH at an average price of approximately $1,855. Some Antminer S21 models and Whatsminer M60 and below have reached shutdown price. Trend Research, led by Yi Lihua, has begun actively closing positions and mitigating overall risk.
Strategy, BitMine, and Trend Research have collectively suffered unrealized losses exceeding $15 billion. None of these actions were indicative of market analysis.
They're all working on one thing:
Do I have enough cash on hand?
By the way,
Even Gemini has started laying off about 25% of its workforce.
This in itself speaks volumes.
3. This is March 12th, but history tells us: March 12th is never the end.
The essence of 312 is never a sudden drop on a single day.
Instead, three things happened at the same time:
Money suddenly stopped flowing, and people who needed cash started selling the easiest assets to sell. The market began to calculate: who else would be forced to sell next? Now, all three things have happened.
Investors shift their focus, projects sell their tokens, founders reduce their holdings, mining machines shut down, institutions liquidate their positions, and ETFs see increased trading volume.
This is not a coincidence.
Instead, it represents a clear path of liquidity receding.
But history has repeatedly proven one thing:
What 312 cleared out was leverage and illusion, not the trend itself.
Raoul Pal (Founder of Global Macro Investor, a 38-year market veteran)
Having experienced 2013, 2017, March 12, 2020, and 2022,
His conclusion was simple:
Panic is not the end; it is merely a necessary stage in a long-term trend.
What truly destroys a person is...
It's not 312.
Instead, they lost all their positions and their beliefs in 312.
4. If the current value is 312, what usually happens next?
Looking back at 2020 after March 12th,
What truly changes the market trend is not natural repair.
Instead, it was a sharp shift in policy and liquidity:
The Federal Reserve's extremely loose monetary policy, rapid interest rate cuts, and massive fiscal stimulus entering the market, along with stablecoins and DeFi, directly channeled liquidity onto the blockchain, ultimately giving rise to the DeFi Summer and the subsequent bull market. While not exactly the same, the current conditions are highly similar:
The Trump administration is the most crypto-friendly government in history. Crypto market structure legislation is about to be passed, and stablecoin legislation is advancing, which will directly bring liquidity to the blockchain. This year is the midterm election cycle.
Trump has a strong incentive to push for a more relaxed environment.
Stabilizing the fundamentals through the stock and cryptocurrency markets: If these conditions are met...
This round of 312-style liquidation,
This may not be the end.
On the contrary, it may be the starting point for a new round of on-chain narratives.
5. Summary:
The pain I feel now is real.
The pressure is real.
But if you experienced the 312 earthquake...
You will know:
312 cleared out leverage and illusions.
It's not the trend itself.
Encryption was just the first thing to be punished.
But history tells us—
The water often comes in a stronger rush later.
