#Matrixport Prediction That ETF May Be Delayed Causes Panic with BTC Plummeting Nearly 10%#
On January 3, Matrixport reported that the SEC is expected to reject all proposals in January as all applications fail to meet key requirements. If the SEC refuses to approve, the market will see large-scale liquidation activities and the price of Bitcoin may quickly drop by 20%. After the news spread, the crypto market suffered a plunge, with BTC once falling to around $40,500, a drop of nearly 10%, and ETH once falling below the $2,100.
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Crypto Market Aggregator|币圈新闻汇总
[2/3] (TechFlow | BlockBeats | PANews | Foresight News | WuBlockchain | TechFlow(Arkham)) 2. BTC/ETH spot prices experienced abnormal fluctuations in the early morning, with a single-minute amplitude exceeding 3% at one point; the Fear & Greed Index remains at "Extreme Fear". Between 00:05 and 00:17, the price fluctuated by more than 1% per minute multiple times (some exceeding 3%), with a short-term surge in trading volume. Market speculation suggests this may be related to malfunctions in the grid trading strategies of some market makers; the index reached 7 (“Extreme Panic”). Meanwhile, data indicates that ETH 24-hour contract trading volume on Bybit reached $21.58 billion, a year-on-year increase of 354.01%. (TechFlow | PANews | Foresight News | BlockBeats | Foresight News) 3. Bitwise advisor Jeff Park refuted the rumor of "removal of IBIT options position limits": The IBIT cap remains at 250,000 units. He stated that the rumor is untrue and that the proposed adjustment is to increase the cap for FBTC, ARKB, HODL, and Ethereum ETF from 25,000 units to 250,000 units to achieve fairness. He also believes that the recent selling pressure is more likely from non-directional "paper funds" such as TradeFi risk de-trading and derivatives hedging/market making, which can be verified through OCC data. (TechFlow | Foresight News | BlockBeats | Odaily) 4. ETH/BTC On-Chain Fund Movements: Suspected institutional purchase of 20,000 ETH; new address withdraws 1,546 BTC; multiple whale purchases/withdrawals of ETH. On-chain tracking shows that a new wallet, suspected to be BitMine, transferred 20,000 ETH (approximately $41.67 million to $41.98 million) from Kraken; another newly created address withdrew 1,546 BTC (approximately $106.68 million) from Binance. Meanwhile, a whale was observed withdrawing 60,784 ETH (approximately $126 million) from Binance within 30 hours, and another address increased its holdings by 53,544.2 ETH (at an average price of approximately $2,074.4) in 24 hours, accumulating a total of 63,784.8 ETH since February 1st. (BlockBeats | TechFlow | PANews | Odaily | TechFlow | BlockBeats | Foresight News | TechFlow) 5. Macroeconomic/Interest Rate Expectations (CME): 23.2% probability of a 25bp rate cut by the FOMC in March; 32.5% probability of a cumulative 50bp rate cut throughout the year by the end of 2026. In addition, the probability of a cumulative interest rate cut of 75 basis points throughout the year is 25.9%; the probability of no further interest rate cuts is 5.4%. (BlockBeats | Cointelegraph) 6. Bitcoin mining: Difficulty decreased by 11.16% to 125.86T, the largest single decrease since the summer of 2021. Block height 935,424, difficulty decreased by 11.16%; the average hashrate over the past 7 days is 990.08 EH/s, and the total hashrate has decreased by about 20% over the past month. (BlockBeats | Foresight News | Odaily) 7. Institutions and Opinions: Coinbase CEO emphasizes long-term bullishness; CoinDesk believes the pullback is more like a "sharp but short-lived" correction; Arthur Hayes opposes "conspiracy theories". Brian Armstrong stated that the sharp fluctuations do not change his long-term view and believes that crypto is rapidly "eating up the financial services industry." CoinDesk analysts believe that BTC's nearly 50% pullback from its highs is more like a historically "sharp but short-lived" correction, possibly related to misinterpreting Fed signals, margin calls, and profit-taking. Arthur Hayes stated that the recent crash was not a secret conspiracy, and that derivatives do not create volatility but only amplify it in both directions, and that the lack of government bailouts will help clear excessive leverage more quickly. (BlockBeats | Odaily | PANews | TechFlow | BlockBeats) 8. Forward Industries (FWDI) announced it will increase its stake in SOL "without leverage or debt" and plans to integrate other SOL financial companies.
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TingHu♪
Personal record review and future plans: At the beginning of this decline, the price was still relatively high. At that time, Mr. Yi's liquidation price was around 1800. Initially, the view was that the probability of Mr. Yi being liquidated was very low; he would add margin and could also stop loss. Therefore, the plan was to take advantage of his broken resolve and market panic selling to profit from the price drop. Later, things did indeed unfold according to the script. He added margin and continuously reduced his position through stop-loss orders, leading to a panic sell-off… Unfortunately, I mainly held spot positions and didn't short, so I missed out on this huge profit. Also, I had originally planned to buy Bitcoin at 60,000, and Yi also lowered the liquidation price, but because the drop was too rapid (exceeding expectations), there were very clear signs that it was heading towards liquidating Yi. Once liquidated, the entire market would be dragged down. So, I thought I'd just wait for the liquidation and make a big profit, because this kind of continuous decline followed by liquidation has a high probability of a V-shaped reversal, with substantial gains! But in the end, he stopped just before he could slit Yi's throat; the knife stopped right there, and the "man in black" walked away smiling. Unfortunately, the rapid rebound after the sell-off wasn't the time to monitor the market (without the expectation of a major liquidation, one tends to place orders on the left side; this habit of chasing the sell-off on the right side is more prudent in a bear market), and I regretfully missed the lowest point for short-term buy the dips. By the time it recovered, it had already rebounded by more than ten points, right in a consolidation range. The plan remains the same: to trade within this range for a period of time, and then, once many people have relaxed or there is a certain probability of a bull market pullback (when people don't believe in the bear market), to leave again and wait for the bottom or the next opportunity to make some money. twitter.com/TingHu888/status/2...
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三马合约VIP频道(置顶策略有效)-
1. Current Recommended Direction - We are clearly optimistic about the short opportunities brought by the high short-term volatility of ETH, and our main strategy is to focus on short positions; - The focus is on taking advantage of market crashes and volatility to profit from short-term scalping short positions; no long are recommended. - There was no mention of overextending the price or tentatively establishing a position; the overall bias is towards a short-selling strategy. 2. Position and Risk Management Recommendations - It is recommended to use high leverage (such as 100x or 50x) for short-term trading, emphasizing that a 5% margin can yield high profits; - Take profits in batches to ensure at least 600% profit, and set up an automatic exit point to guard against market reversals...
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CryptosRus
THIS IS WHAT A REAL FLUSH LOOKS LIKE Charles Schwab, one of the largest financial institutions in the world, said the #Bitcoin selloff was driven by a full liquidation event. They described a market where momentum broke, funding rates turned deeply negative, implied volatility spiked above 90, and long positions were forced out. From their perspective, that kind of washout often marks a local bottom, which is why they began positioning for a rebound on behalf of institutional clients. Schwab also explained how the move fed on itself. Retail borrowers using Bitcoin-backed loans were margin-called and forced to sell, while institutional clients with large $BTC holdings were able to meet margin requirements without selling. Their takeaway was simple: this wasn’t fundamentals breaking. It was leverage getting flushed -- and the recovery that followed looked healthy.
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