Ripple plans to build a $1 billion XRP reserve, but why is the price of the currency not rising?

Summary of key points

Reserve Program : Ripple is leading a fundraising effort to raise at least $1 billion to accumulate XRP to establish a digital asset reserve, but this has not yet been officially confirmed. Price Performance : Despite this positive news, XRP fell approximately 19% between October 1 and 17 (from $2.88 to $2.32), primarily due to the US government shutdown, tariff concerns, and institutional selling pressure.

Details of the $1 billion XRP reserve plan

Program Overview

According to Bloomberg, Ripple Labs is leading a fundraising effort to raise at least $1 billion to accumulate XRP and establish a dedicated digital asset reserve. The initiative, first reported by Bloomberg in mid-October 2025, highlights Ripple’s confidence in the long-term value of XRP in payments and liquidity.

Key details :

• Funding : Mainly external funding, with Ripple injecting some of its own XRP reserves
• Purpose : Provides strategic XRP reserves, cross-border settlements, and liquidity, supporting RippleNet and ODL (On-Demand Liquidity) products.
• Timeline : The specific launch date has not been determined, and fundraising may take several months.

Official confirmation status

Important Note : As of October 17th, Ripple has not directly confirmed this plan through official channels (such as ripple.com or @Ripple on Twitter). All reports are traced back to anonymous sources on Bloomberg and have a medium confidence level (70%). Please wait for official updates and confirmation.

XRP Price Performance Analysis

Price Trend Overview

XRP experienced significant volatility during October, with a flash crash on October 10th resulting in a 15% drop in a single day, from $2.80 to a low of $ 2.23 .

Comparison with mainstream currencies

XRP’s decline was significantly greater than that of Bitcoin and Ethereum, reflecting the vulnerability of Altcoin to market pressure.

Technical Analysis of Price Stagnation

Current technical structure

Price Level : $2.354, below the key short-term moving average

• 4-hour RSI : 37.23 (neutral, close to oversold)
• Daily RSI : 33.33 (oversold)
• Weekly RSI : 44.47 (neutral)

Key price points :

• Support levels : $2.35 (the biggest pain point for options), $2.30 (strong support)
• Resistance : $2.40 (4-hour EMA12), $2.50 (strong resistance)

Futures market data :

• Open interest : $3.89 billion, down 4.12% in 24 hours
• Options holdings : $1.98 million, with the biggest pain point at $2.35
• Liquidation risk : Long position liquidations concentrated around $2.266, totaling $3.67 million

Four main factors that suppress prices

1. U.S. government shutdown (40% weighting)

The political deadlock, which lasted more than 15 days, delayed the XRP spot ETF review, including Grayscale's October 18 deadline and the Market Structure Act .

2. US-China tariff escalation (weighting 30%)

Trump's October 10th threat of 100% tariffs triggered risk aversion, causing the crypto market to wipe out $19 billion in value.

3. Institutional and whale selling (weight 20%)

Key Stats :

• Whale Selling : 2.24 billion XRP ($5.4 billion) sold between October 10-14
• Exchange Inflows : 440 million XRP flowed into exchanges, a 9-month high
• Long-term holders decreased : net holdings of coin holders changed by -34%

4. Deleveraging and liquidity tightening (weighting 10%)

The collapse in open interest and negative funding rates amplified the downtrend, with XRP losing $10 billion in market capitalization due to cascading liquidations.

On-chain data insights

Token Unlock and Supply Dynamics

Unlocked events in October :

• October 1-2 : Approximately 1 billion XRP (worth approximately $2.87 billion) will be released as planned.
• Net increase in circulation : ~300 million XRP (~$700 million re-locked)
• Flare Lockup : 4 Million XRP ($11.5 Million) Mysteriously Locked in Core Vault

Whale activity patterns

Major transfers (>10 million XRP):

• October 1: 4.33 million XRP ($127.5 million) transferred to an unknown wallet
• October 6: 200 million XRP ($610 million) transferred from Ripple to an unknown wallet
• October 10: 50 million XRP ($136.2 million) transferred from an unknown wallet

Community sentiment analysis

Reserve message response

Community reaction to the $1 billion reserve plan was limited, largely due to the recent nature of the announcement (released early UTC on October 17). Influential voices portrayed it as a catalyst for XRP's adoption in global finance, linking it to the potential for the US to increase its crypto reserves under Trump's policies.

Price performance reaction

Despite retail sentiment turning bearish, reaching a six-month high in FUD according to aggregate indicators, the community reaction remained resilient. Cointelegraph’s seasoned holders compared the current price to the level of around $0.53 a year ago, highlighting the exponential gain and refuting the complaints.

Future Outlook

Short-term outlook (60% confidence level)

If the shutdown continues, prices could fall another 5-10% within the $2.00-$2.40 range. Key catalysts include:

• Senate Voting and Whale Flows
• $2.30 support level holds or breaks

Long-term outlook (75% confidence)

ETF approval (potential in November) and institutional adoption could drive a rally above $3 by year-end.

in conclusion

XRP's performance in October reflected a risk-off environment, with US political and macro headwinds overshadowing positive factors such as regulatory clarity and partnerships. The $1 billion reserve plan, while positive, still requires official confirmation. In the short term, technical resistance, institutional selling pressure, and macro uncertainty continue to suppress prices, but long-term fundamentals remain strong, driven by ETF potential and global adoption.