Analysis of the accelerated pace of BAS airdrops: price pullbacks and short-seller profits
TL;DR
The pace of BAS airdrops has indeed accelerated significantly : on October 19th, 100 million BAS tokens (4% of the total supply) were released in a single day, causing the price to plummet 64.09% from $0.163 to $0.031. Short sellers have seen significant profits : short sellers who entered the market at the peak have profited as much as 82%. The positive funding rate indicates that longs continue to pay shorts.
Core Analysis
Airdrop Pace Acceleration Details
100 million BAS large-scale airdrop execution :
- Week 5 : 51 million BAS (worth $1.54 million)
- Week 6 : 49 million BAS (worth $1.48 million)
- Distribution time : October 19, 09:05-09:13 UTC
- Beneficiary users : Approximately 60,000 to 80,000 Booster activity participants
- Average distribution : 1,250-1,667 BAS (approximately 37-50 USD) per personbscscan
This is the largest single-day airdrop in BAS history, accounting for 10% of the circulating supply, greatly accelerating the pace of token release .
Price Retracement Analysis
Technical indicators indicate a sharp correction :
| index | Numerical | state | Influence |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24-hour decline | -64.09% | Plummet | Falling from $0.163 to $0.031 |
| RSI (1 hour) | twenty four | Severely oversold | Below 30 threshold |
| RSI (Daily) | 47 | neutral | Daily MACD shows potential rebound |
| 24-hour trading volume | $184M | A surge of 138% | panic selling |
Price trend characteristics :
- Plunge trigger point : 09:00 UTC after the airdrop distribution, the price began to fall rapidly
- Support level tested : Drop to $0.028 (24-hour low)
- Current position : $0.0296, still near the lower Bollinger Band
- Market capitalization has shrunk : from a peak of approximately $400 million to a current $75.6 million
Short sellers make significant profits
Short profit data :
- Highest Profit : Short from the high of $0.163 to $0.03 made a profit of about 82%
- Funding rate : Binance 0.13%, Bitget 0.15% (positive rate means longs pay shorts)
- Position changes : Total holdings $31.4M (24 hours +8.4%), short positions continue to increase
- Liquidation risk : Long liquidation pressure is concentrated in the $0.027-$0.029 range
Short advantage performance :
- Selling pressure : 40% of tokens were sold immediately after the airdrop, with a buy-sell ratio of 3:1
- Trading behavior : 60% of new users sold 70% of their airdrop allocations
- Market Sentiment : Fear and Greed Index 28 (Extreme Fear)
On-chain data verification
Airdrop distribution mode :
| index | Before the airdrop (October 18) | After the airdrop (October 19) | change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Number of currency holding addresses | 140,000 | 159,000 | +14% |
| Number of transactions per day | 10,000 | 251,000 | +2,510% |
| DEX trading volume | $18M | $90.7M | +404% |
| Gini coefficient | 0.75 | 0.62 | -17% (diversification) |
Analysis of capital flows :
- Exchange inflow : Net inflow to exchanges after the airdrop was approximately $50 million
- DEX Dominance : PancakeSwap accounts for 55% of trading volume ($90.7M)
- Whale Behavior : 5 of the top 10 holders reduced their holdings by 20%, but 8 new whales entered the market
in conclusion
The pace of BAS airdrops has indeed accelerated significantly. The single-day release of 100 million tokens created selling pressure, directly leading to a -64% price plunge. Short sellers profited handsomely during this pullback , and both technical indicators and on-chain data confirm their profitability. However, the daily MACD shows a potential rebound signal, while the severely oversold RSI may signal a short-term rebound opportunity. Investors should monitor the key resistance level of $0.037, as a break above this could put short sellers at risk of a squeeze.