Can MYX Finance return to the $5 mark? Analysis

Core Conclusion

Current Price : $2.67 (down 8.5% in 24 hours, down 19.23% in 7 days)

Reaching the $5 target requires : 75.4% growth , with a low probability of 15-20%

After a roughly 85% correction from its all-time high of $17.83 in September, MYX faces multiple obstacles as it attempts to reach $5. While the technicals suggest a bearish structure, community confidence has been damaged by the airdrop scandal, the protocol's fundamentals offer some positive signs.

Technical Analysis

Key resistance levels

Current status of technical indicators

• RSI : 37 in 4 hours, 34 in daily chart (oversold area, supports short-term rebound)
• MACD : Histogram turns positive (0.0098), but overall remains negative
• Moving Average System : The price is below all key moving averages, and the trend is completely bearish.

Derivatives data

• Open interest : $34.3M (down 10.7% over 24 hours)
• Liquidation risk : $420,000 in cumulative long liquidations below $2.68, and $1.3 million in short liquidations above $3.01

Fundamental analysis

Protocol health

MYX Finance, as a perpetual contract DEX, shows good fundamental indicators:

• TVL : $27.3M (over 10x growth from $2-3M in January)
• Daily income : $4,072 (almost zero before September, now stable at $1,000-2,000/day)
• Trading activity : 24-hour trading volume $57.96M

Token Economics Risks

Community sentiment analysis

Current emotional state

Overall sentiment : 🔴Extremely pessimistic

Community sentiment has shifted sharply from early bullish hype to bearish due to:

1. Airdrop Sybil Scandal : On September 10th, the largest potential Sybil attack was exposed, where a single entity controlled 100 wallets and obtained 9.8 million MYX (approximately 1% of the supply).
2. Trust crisis : The community accuses the team of insider trading, and the project's vague response exacerbates suspicions.
3. Engagement : Controversial content receives high engagement, but lacks strong defense from the project owner.

There was almost no discussion of the $5 price target, indicating that this price point is not a focus of the community.

Price prediction evaluation

Short-term outlook (1-3 months)

Probability of reaching $5: 15-20%

Supporting factors:

• RSI is oversold, technical rebound is possible
• TVL remains stable, protocol usage rises
• New exchanges such as Kraken go online to increase liquidity

Resistance factors:

• Bearish technical structure intact
• Community confidence severely damaged
• Multiple technical resistance levels are concentrated

Medium-term outlook (3-12 months)

Probability of reaching $5: 40%

Positive scenario:

• Solana ecosystem recovers overall
• Capital inflow into the perpetual contract track
• Short squeeze breaking $3.00 triggers chain reaction

Key monitoring indicators

Bullish signals:

• Breakout above $3.00 on high volume
• Open interest rebounds >5%
• TVL exceeds $30M
• Daily income is stable over $5K

Bearish signal:

• Breaking below $2.66 support
• TVL below $25M
• Further token unlocking news

Investment Advice

Risk Rating : 🔴 High Risk

Strategic recommendations :

1. Cautious wait-and-see : Wait for confirmation of a breakout above $3.00 before considering participation
2. Build positions in batches : If you participate, it is recommended to test a small position in the $2.50-2.70 range
3. Stop-loss setting : Strict stop-loss at $2.40 to protect capital

Conclusion : MYX's return to $5 requires the simultaneous emergence of multiple positive factors, including a technological breakthrough, restored community confidence, and overall market support. The probability is currently low, so we recommend prioritizing risk management.