Crypto Market In-Depth Analysis: Prospects for a Rebound in a Pullback

Core Viewpoint

Current market status : Bitcoin $108,275, Ethereum $3,879 (as of 2025-10-21 04:19 UTC), are in a consolidation phase after the sharp pullback in October. Technical indicators show oversold signals, and on-chain data shows signs of accumulation, but a large-scale rebound still needs to be confirmed at key support levels. Followin

Market pullback analysis

Callback Amplitude and Timeline

The crypto market experienced a significant correction in October, with Bitcoin falling from a high of $124,773 on October 6 to a low of $105,896 on October 10, a drop of approximately 15%. Ethereum also fell from $4,689 to $3,575 during the same period, a drop of 24%.

Current Status of Technical Analysis

Bitcoin technical analysis :

• RSI : 31.5 (oversold) on the 1-hour chart, 43.5 on the 4-hour chart, and 40.5 on the daily chart.
• Key Support : $107,748 (strong support), $106,788 (medium support), $102,758 (weak support)
• Resistance : $109,364 (medium), $114,192 (strong resistance)

Ethereum technical aspects :

• RSI : 29.1 (deeply oversold) on the 1-hour chart, 40.3 on the 4-hour chart, 41.6 on the daily chart
• Key Support : $3,834 (strong support), $3,734 (medium support), $3,593 (weak support)
• Resistance : $3,975 (medium resistance), $4,276 (strong resistance)

On-chain data accumulation signal

Exchange fund flows

Bitcoin net outflow (October 1-21):

• Binance: -22,427 BTC (approximately $2.4 billion)
• Coinbase: -35,959 BTC (approximately $3.9 billion)
• Total net outflow: approximately 59,072 BTC (approximately $6.4 billion)

Ethereum net outflow (same period):

• Binance: -119,976 ETH (approximately $467 million)
• Coinbase: -502,337 ETH (approximately $1.96 billion)
• Total net outflow: approximately 695,832 ETH (approximately $2.7 billion)

Net outflows indicate that large investors and institutions are accumulating and withdrawing assets from exchanges for self-custody, which is generally a bullish sign.

DeFi Ecosystem Health

Major protocol TVL changes :

• Aave : $43.3 billion → $39.9 billion (-8%)
• Uniswap : $5.6 billion → $5.9 billion (+5.7%)
• Lido : $35.4 billion → $34.3 billion (-3.2%)

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Overall DeFi TVL fell from approximately $120 billion to $115 billion, a decrease of approximately 4.2%, but the core protocol remained stable.

Market sentiment and expert opinions

Social media sentiment

The current market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with the mainstream view that this is a healthy mid-term adjustment rather than a trend reversal. The community generally views this decline as a necessary process to clean out weak hands and prepare for subsequent gains.

Experts predict divergence

Bullish view :

• Michael Saylor : Expected to reach a new high by the end of 2025
• JPMorgan : Target price $165,000
• TD Cowen : December target $141,000
• Arca analyst : The rebound is not a "dead cat bounce", key indicators show signs of recovery coindesk

Bearish view :

• Elliott Wave analyst Jon Glover : The bull market is over and the market is expected to fall to $70,000-$80,000
• Peter Schiff : Bitcoin is weak against gold and is expected to fall to lower levels x.com

Derivatives Market Signals

Options and Futures Data

Open Interest :

• Bitcoin OI : $70.2 billion (down 0.91% in 24 hours)
• Ethereum OI : $43 billion (down 3.94% in 24 hours)

Funding Rate :

• Bitcoin : Binance -0.005% (shorts pay longs), Bybit +0.0019%
• Ethereum : Generally positive, Binance +0.0042%, Bybit +0.0055%

Rebound Prospects Assessment

Possibility of a short-term rebound (next 1-2 weeks)

Probability: 60%

Supporting factors :

• RSI is deeply oversold, and there is a strong demand for a technical rebound.
• Net outflows from exchanges show accumulation behavior
• 4-hour MACD shows a bullish crossover
• The Fear and Greed Index is at 30, approaching extreme fear territory.

Key conditions :

• Bitcoin needs to hold the $107,748 support level
• Ethereum needs to hold the $3,834 support level
• Increased trading volume confirms the authenticity of the rebound

Medium-term Outlook (Q4 2025)

Expectations of a massive rebound : Based on historical "Uptober" patterns and the recovery of institutional ETF inflows, we expect Q4 to see weekly gains of 20%+. Key catalysts include the Fed's policy shift and easing of US-China trade relations.

Target price :

• Bitcoin : $115,000-$120,000 (ETF inflows resume)
• Ethereum : $4,500 (breakout of channel resistance)

Risk Warning

Downside risks

Bitcoin : A break below $105,000 could trigger a waterfall drop to the psychological level of $100,000 Ethereum : A loss of $3,734 could test the $3,500 area

Macro factors

• US-China trade tensions
• Hawkish Fed policy
• Global liquidity tightening

in conclusion

The crypto market is currently at a critical inflection point. Technical oversold signals and accumulating on-chain data corroborate the probability of a short-term rebound. However, a large-scale rebound still requires confirmation of key support levels and an improvement in the macroeconomic environment. Investors should closely monitor price performance in the $108,000/$3,900 area, as this will determine the subsequent trend.

Based on multi-dimensional analysis, it is estimated that it will take another 1-2 weeks to complete the bottom confirmation , after which a stronger rebound is expected to begin.