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<h3>Fireline Report</h3>
<p>Google's quantum technology breakthrough has triggered concerns about BTC security, but there is no panic in the market. BTC has broken through $110,000 in the short term, and the funding rate has remained positive, indicating that the market sentiment has not cooled down.</p>
<h3>Trading Guide</h3>
<p>BTC is dominated by short-term bulls. Long in batches at the current price of 107888, with a stop loss at 106000 and a target of 115000. If the daily closing price is below 105000, set a stop loss and do T within the range. There is still a risk of a correction before it stabilizes at 110,000, which is suitable for steady mid-term holding. It is recommended to try with a light position and set a tiered stop profit at 109000-111000. Pay attention to the repeated support of 107500. The market volume is not extreme, the funding rate is low, there is no obvious congestion in mainstream exchanges, and the structure is slow to rise. Aggressive short-term traders can follow up with a quick rebound after a false break of 107500<span class="source"><a href="fx://followin.io/Feed?id=21003130"><img src="https://static.fwimg.io/img/user/f286ee439d5730cafeacbc22dd54bc44.jpg" width="20" height="20" /></a><a href="fx://followin.io/Feed?id=21004003"><img src="https://static.fwimg.io/img/user/4b6925a4b51db3410485d02ad815a1c4.jpg" width="20" height="20" /></a></span>.</p>
<p style="margin-top: 20px; text-align: left; opacity: 0.4; padding: 0 42px"><small>Updated at 10-24 01:38</small><br><small>AI-generated summary, not investment advice</small></p></div>

<h1>Analysis of the impact of Google&#39;s quantum technology breakthrough on Bitcoin</h1><h2> TL;DR</h2><p> Google&#39;s Willow quantum chip&#39;s &quot;Quantum Echo&quot; algorithm achieves a 13,000-fold speedup compared to supercomputers, but experts generally believe the threat to Bitcoin remains distant. <strong>Timeline predictions suggest a real threat is unlikely until the 2030s-2040s</strong> . Currently, only 25% of BTC is potentially at risk (due to public key address exposure), and the market reaction has been mild, with minimal price fluctuations.</p><h2> Core Analysis</h2><h3> A detailed explanation of Google&#39;s Willow quantum breakthrough</h3><p> <a href="https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3757674">Technical</a> <strong>Specifications</strong> : Willow is a <a href="https://finance.sina.com.cn/world/2025-10-23/doc-infuvenx2847997.shtml">105</a> -qubit superconducting quantum processor manufactured using advanced integrated circuit technology.</p><table><thead><tr><th> Technical indicators</th><th> Numerical</th><th> significance</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td> Number of qubits</td><td> 105</td><td> Beyond the limits of classic simulation</td></tr><tr><td> Single-bit gate fidelity</td><td> 99.97%</td><td> Very low error rate</td></tr><tr><td> Two-bit gate fidelity</td><td> 99.88%</td><td> Support for complex quantum circuits</td></tr><tr><td> Algorithm acceleration ratio</td><td> 13,000 times</td><td> Compared to Frontier supercomputer</td></tr></tbody></table><p> <strong>&quot;Quantum Echo&quot; algorithm</strong> : Detecting quantum chaos and interference patterns through time reversal protocols, achieving verifiable quantum advantage for the first time. This algorithm focuses on the physical simulation of multi-body systems rather than cryptographic cracking. <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/tech/2025/10/22/google-claims-quantum-breakthrough-to-reignite-bitcoin-ramifications-debate">coindesk</a> <a href="https://thequantuminsider.com/2025/10/22/google-quantum-ai-shows-13000x-speedup-over-worlds-fastest-supercomputer-in-physics-simulation/">thequantuminsider</a></p><h3> Threat Assessment of Bitcoin Cryptography</h3><p> <strong>Threat type analysis</strong> :</p><ul><li> <strong>SHA-256 hash</strong> : Grover&#39;s algorithm can theoretically reduce brute force cracking from 2^256 to 2^128 operations, but it still takes about 10^38 years. Willow&#39;s 105 qubits are far from enough to pose a threat.</li><li> <strong>ECDSA signature</strong> : Shor&#39;s algorithm can exponentially speed up the solution of discrete logarithm problems, which has greater potential threats, but requires 1 million to 10 million logical qubits</li></ul><p> <strong>Current risk profile</strong> :</p><table><thead><tr><th> Risk Category</th><th> Exposure scale</th><th> Specific impact</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td> Exposing public key address</td><td> ~25% BTC (4 million)</td><td> P2PK and reused P2PKH addresses</td></tr><tr><td> Transaction exposure window</td><td> 10-minute memory pool</td><td> Public keys are visible during transaction broadcast</td></tr><tr><td> Historical Transactions</td><td> The entire history of blockchain</td><td> &quot;Collect first, decrypt later&quot; attack risks</td></tr></tbody></table><h3> Expert Timeline Prediction</h3><p> <strong>Short-term (2025-2030)</strong> : The threat is virtually zero. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin estimates the probability of modern cryptography being cracked is 20%, while Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko puts the probability of ECDSA being cracked at 50/50.</p><p> <strong>Medium-term (2030-2040)</strong> : A high-risk window. Experts estimate that approximately 13 million logical qubits are needed to crack RSA, and a Bitcoin signature takes about 30 minutes. BTQ predicts that 1 million qubits will be achieved by 2030.</p><p> <strong>Long-term (after 2040)</strong> : If preventive measures are not taken, the threat to the security of the system will arise. A survey of 37 experts showed that 50% believed that 2048-bit RSA could be cracked before 2037.</p><h3> Social sentiment analysis</h3><p> <strong>Community reaction</strong> : The overall mood is cautiously optimistic, with low levels of panic.</p><p> <strong>Main narrative themes</strong> :</p><ul><li> <strong>Rational rumor refutation</strong> : The community actively refutes the &quot;quantum doomsday&quot; rumor, emphasizing that Willow is still several orders of magnitude away from cracking cryptography.</li><li> <strong>Preparing for a Rainy Day</strong> : Discussing the Feasibility of Bitcoin Upgrading to Quantum-Resistant Cryptography via a Soft Fork</li><li> <strong>Opportunities coexist</strong> : Quantum computing may have a positive impact on DeFi risk modeling, consensus mechanism optimization, etc.</li></ul><p> Influential accounts on <a href="https://x.com/BTC_Archive/status/1981061938747473978">Twitter</a> <a href="https://x.com/caprioleio/status/1978056256746119358">generally</a> take a fact- <a href="https://x.com/grok/status/1981030011831566757">oriented</a> stance and avoid creating panic.</p><h3> Technical Analysis</h3><p> <strong>Price Performance</strong> : BTC traded between $107,500 and $109,000 following Google&#39;s announcement, initially rising 0.7% to near $109,000 before retreating 2.7% to $107,420. As of 02:06 UTC on October 23, BTC was stable at $108,082.</p><p> <strong>Derivatives Market</strong> :</p><table><thead><tr><th> index</th><th> Numerical</th><th> 24-hour changes</th><th> Interpretation</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td> Open interest</td><td> $67.95 billion</td><td> -1.92%</td><td> Reduced leverage exposure</td></tr><tr><td> Funding Rate</td><td> +0.0076%</td><td> Mild and positive</td><td> Longs pay shorts, cautiously bullish</td></tr><tr><td> Option Open Interest</td><td> $63.57 billion</td><td> +3.08%</td><td> Options activity is relatively muted</td></tr></tbody></table><p> <strong>Market liquidity</strong> : 24-hour net outflow of 6,654 BTC, exchange reserves fell to 2.41 million BTC, indicating a continued trend of cold storage transfer. <reference tool_id="call_56275216" category="heatmap" project="BTC" description="BTC OI USD and 24h change percent by exchange at 2025-10-23 02:06 UTC"/></p><p> The biggest pain points for options are $109,000 (expiring on October 23) and $108,000 (expiring on October 25), which are converging with the current price and may limit upside potential. <reference tool_id="call_33295309" category="mix_bar_line_options" project="BTC" description="BTC options open interest and max pain data by exchange and expiration date"/></p><h2> Mitigation strategies</h2><h3> User-level countermeasures</h3><ul><li> <strong>Avoid address reuse</strong> : Generate a new address for each transaction to hide the public key</li><li> <strong>Fund Migration</strong> : Transfer funds to a new address without exposing the public key</li><li> <strong>Hardware wallet</strong> : Use hardware wallet to ensure secure key generation</li></ul><h3> Protocol-level upgrade path</h3><ul><li> <strong>Post-quantum cryptography</strong> : using algorithms such as ML-DSA (Dilithium) standardized by NIST</li><li> <strong>Hybrid solution</strong> : ECDSA + post-quantum signature transitional solution</li><li> <strong>Soft fork upgrade</strong> : quantum security upgrade achieved through community consensus, similar to Taproot upgrade</li></ul><h2> in conclusion</h2><p> Google&#39;s Willow quantum breakthrough marks a significant milestone in achieving verifiable quantum advantage, but <strong>the threat to Bitcoin remains distant</strong> . Experts agree that a true cryptographic threat is unlikely to emerge until the 2030s, giving Bitcoin ample time to achieve quantum security through protocol upgrades. <strong>The muted market reaction suggests that investors are taking a rational view of this long-term challenge</strong> , and current price fluctuations reflect macroeconomic factors rather than quantum panic.</p><p> <strong>Key advice</strong> : Stay vigilant but don’t panic, and support the Bitcoin ecosystem in starting research and implementation of post-quantum cryptography as soon as possible.</p>
