Analysis of the impact of Google's quantum technology breakthrough on Bitcoin
TL;DR
Google's Willow quantum chip's "Quantum Echo" algorithm achieves a 13,000-fold speedup compared to supercomputers, but experts generally believe the threat to Bitcoin remains distant. Timeline predictions suggest a real threat is unlikely until the 2030s-2040s . Currently, only 25% of BTC is potentially at risk (due to public key address exposure), and the market reaction has been mild, with minimal price fluctuations.
Core Analysis
A detailed explanation of Google's Willow quantum breakthrough
Technical Specifications : Willow is a 105 -qubit superconducting quantum processor manufactured using advanced integrated circuit technology.
| Technical indicators | Numerical | significance |
|---|---|---|
| Number of qubits | 105 | Beyond the limits of classic simulation |
| Single-bit gate fidelity | 99.97% | Very low error rate |
| Two-bit gate fidelity | 99.88% | Support for complex quantum circuits |
| Algorithm acceleration ratio | 13,000 times | Compared to Frontier supercomputer |
"Quantum Echo" algorithm : Detecting quantum chaos and interference patterns through time reversal protocols, achieving verifiable quantum advantage for the first time. This algorithm focuses on the physical simulation of multi-body systems rather than cryptographic cracking. coindesk thequantuminsider
Threat Assessment of Bitcoin Cryptography
Threat type analysis :
- SHA-256 hash : Grover's algorithm can theoretically reduce brute force cracking from 2^256 to 2^128 operations, but it still takes about 10^38 years. Willow's 105 qubits are far from enough to pose a threat.
- ECDSA signature : Shor's algorithm can exponentially speed up the solution of discrete logarithm problems, which has greater potential threats, but requires 1 million to 10 million logical qubits
Current risk profile :
| Risk Category | Exposure scale | Specific impact |
|---|---|---|
| Exposing public key address | ~25% BTC (4 million) | P2PK and reused P2PKH addresses |
| Transaction exposure window | 10-minute memory pool | Public keys are visible during transaction broadcast |
| Historical Transactions | The entire history of blockchain | "Collect first, decrypt later" attack risks |
Expert Timeline Prediction
Short-term (2025-2030) : The threat is virtually zero. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin estimates the probability of modern cryptography being cracked is 20%, while Solana co-founder Anatoly Yakovenko puts the probability of ECDSA being cracked at 50/50.
Medium-term (2030-2040) : A high-risk window. Experts estimate that approximately 13 million logical qubits are needed to crack RSA, and a Bitcoin signature takes about 30 minutes. BTQ predicts that 1 million qubits will be achieved by 2030.
Long-term (after 2040) : If preventive measures are not taken, the threat to the security of the system will arise. A survey of 37 experts showed that 50% believed that 2048-bit RSA could be cracked before 2037.
Social sentiment analysis
Community reaction : The overall mood is cautiously optimistic, with low levels of panic.
Main narrative themes :
- Rational rumor refutation : The community actively refutes the "quantum doomsday" rumor, emphasizing that Willow is still several orders of magnitude away from cracking cryptography.
- Preparing for a Rainy Day : Discussing the Feasibility of Bitcoin Upgrading to Quantum-Resistant Cryptography via a Soft Fork
- Opportunities coexist : Quantum computing may have a positive impact on DeFi risk modeling, consensus mechanism optimization, etc.
Influential accounts on Twitter generally take a fact- oriented stance and avoid creating panic.
Technical Analysis
Price Performance : BTC traded between $107,500 and $109,000 following Google's announcement, initially rising 0.7% to near $109,000 before retreating 2.7% to $107,420. As of 02:06 UTC on October 23, BTC was stable at $108,082.
Derivatives Market :
| index | Numerical | 24-hour changes | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Open interest | $67.95 billion | -1.92% | Reduced leverage exposure |
| Funding Rate | +0.0076% | Mild and positive | Longs pay shorts, cautiously bullish |
| Option Open Interest | $63.57 billion | +3.08% | Options activity is relatively muted |
Market liquidity : 24-hour net outflow of 6,654 BTC, exchange reserves fell to 2.41 million BTC, indicating a continued trend of cold storage transfer.
The biggest pain points for options are $109,000 (expiring on October 23) and $108,000 (expiring on October 25), which are converging with the current price and may limit upside potential.
Mitigation strategies
User-level countermeasures
- Avoid address reuse : Generate a new address for each transaction to hide the public key
- Fund Migration : Transfer funds to a new address without exposing the public key
- Hardware wallet : Use hardware wallet to ensure secure key generation
Protocol-level upgrade path
- Post-quantum cryptography : using algorithms such as ML-DSA (Dilithium) standardized by NIST
- Hybrid solution : ECDSA + post-quantum signature transitional solution
- Soft fork upgrade : quantum security upgrade achieved through community consensus, similar to Taproot upgrade
in conclusion
Google's Willow quantum breakthrough marks a significant milestone in achieving verifiable quantum advantage, but the threat to Bitcoin remains distant . Experts agree that a true cryptographic threat is unlikely to emerge until the 2030s, giving Bitcoin ample time to achieve quantum security through protocol upgrades. The muted market reaction suggests that investors are taking a rational view of this long-term challenge , and current price fluctuations reflect macroeconomic factors rather than quantum panic.
Key advice : Stay vigilant but don’t panic, and support the Bitcoin ecosystem in starting research and implementation of post-quantum cryptography as soon as possible.