Analysis of rising expectations for SBF pardon: Interpretation of FTT's short-term rise followed by pressure

TL;DR

The overall probability of a SBF pardon is low (Polymarket only 3%), primarily driven by social media rumors and political speculation. FTT did exhibit a typical "short-term rally followed by pressure" pattern, rebounding from a low of $0.536 on October 11th to a high of $0.832 on October 16th (a 55% increase), before consolidating within the $0.80-0.85 range. Technical analysis shows the RSI entering overbought territory, and social sentiment regarding the pardon is primarily negative and skeptical. On-chain data indicates increased trading activity during the rally, but no significant abnormal behavior by large investors.

Core Analysis

SBF amnesty expectations

Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) is currently serving a 25-year prison sentence for orchestrating a $9 billion fraud scheme. Expectations of a pardon stem primarily from social media speculation rather than official confirmation. On October 14, 2025, conservative activist Laura Loomer claimed that a "highly mobilized and well-funded" Republican lobbying group was attempting to secure a pardon for SBF, but this claim lacked concrete evidence.

Political environment analysis :

• The Trump administration has indeed shown a lenient attitude towards the crypto sector, pardoning the co-founder of BitMEX in March and former Binance CEO CZ(CZ) in October.
• But the SBF case involved systematic fraud, which was fundamentally different from Ulbricht's liberal-leaning operations.
• The Ministry of Justice's 2025 pardon list does not include SBF, and there is no relevant lobbying registration record.

Probability assessment : Polymarket's prediction market shows that the probability of SBF being pardoned is only 3%, much lower than that of CZ who has been pardoned (previously 9%).

FTT technical trend analysis

The FTT price perfectly presents the technical pattern of "short-term rise followed by pressure":

Price trend review :

• The low was $0.536 on October 11.
• On October 16, it quickly rose to a high of $0.832 (+55%).
• Currently, it is under pressure in the range of $0.80-0.85.

Current status of technical indicators :

• RSI is overbought : The 1-hour chart RSI reached 68.67, close to the overbought warning line
• MACD divergence : Short-term momentum indicator is positive but showing signs of fatigue
• Bollinger Bands : The price broke through the upper band and then fell back, indicating a short-term over-growth

Key support and resistance levels :

Technical indicators indicate that short-term upward momentum is fading and a pullback to test the $0.783 support level is expected.

Social sentiment analysis

Social media discussions on the expected SBF pardon were dominated by negative sentiment:

Main narrative themes :

• Justice vs. political bargaining : Most users believe a pardon would be a betrayal of the victims
• Historical Trauma Alert : The community recalls the history of FTT being used for price manipulation during the FTX crash
• Dead Cat Bounce Bounce : Viewing the Current Price Rally as Unsustainable Speculation

Key opinion leaders’ views :

• Laura Loomer strongly opposed the pardon, calling SBF a "crypto scammer" and the second-largest donor to the Democratic Party.
• Coffeezilla mocks SBF's pardon hopes with meme
• Several crypto influencers warned of the speculative nature of the FTT backlash and stressed the priority of accountability.

The overall community attitude has shifted from outright rejection following the FTX crash to hope for a gradual recovery, but remains dominated by a skeptical framework. Users are generally managing expectations, emphasizing self-custody improvements and avoiding repeating past mistakes.

On-chain data analysis

FTT’s on-chain activity on the Solana network shows unusual patterns associated with price pumps:

Changes in trading activity :

• Peak activity reached on October 17th: 923 transfers (+104% compared to the previous day)
• A secondary peak occurred on October 21st: 592 transfers, possibly involving large-scale transactions
• Overall activity increased by approximately 30% compared to baseline levels

Capital flow characteristics :

• The number of unique senders/receivers increases during the pullback
• No obvious large-value transfers (>1 million FTT) or abnormal selling behavior were found
• Activity patterns tend to favor distribution rather than net accumulation

DEX Liquidity :

• FTT has relatively low liquidity on Solana DEX (~$100K-1M TVL)
• The price increase is mainly driven by centralized exchanges, with DEX trading volume accounting for less than 5%.

in conclusion

Expectations of a SBF pardon are primarily based on social media speculation and political speculation, with an extremely low probability (3%). FTT's brief rally does align with technical analysis, but the subsequent downward pressure suggests a lack of fundamental support. Technical indicators suggest short-term overbought conditions, with a pullback to the key support level of $0.783 expected. Social sentiment is primarily skeptical, and while on-chain data indicates increased activity, there is no unusual activity by large investors. Investors should be wary of speculation based on the expectation of a pardon and monitor key dates such as the SBF appeal hearing on November 4th.