Trump's pardon of CZ drives BNB's strong rebound: Comprehensive market analysis
TL;DR
On October 23, 2025, US President Trump officially pardoned Binance founder CZ(CZ). Binance coin (BNB) surged 4.31% to $1,128.72, with 24-hour trading volume surging 97% to $4.27 billion. Technical indicators indicate strong short-term bullish momentum, positive social media sentiment, and a significant 9.1% increase in on-chain activity. This pardon is seen as a landmark event marking the end of the "crypto wars" and paving the way for the reopening of Binance's US operations.
Core Analysis
Timeline of events and price reaction
BNB saw a significant price rebound after the amnesty was announced on October 23:
| Time Node | Price performance | Changes in trading volume | Key Events |
|---|---|---|---|
| Close on October 22 | ~$1,078 | Baseline level | Consolidation before pardon |
| October 23, 2:00 PM - 3:00 PM UTC | Breaking through $1,120, reaching a maximum of $1,150+ | +97% | The White House confirmed the pardon news coindesk |
| October 24th and current | $1,128.72 (+4.31%) | $4.27 billion | Stabilized above $1,120 |
Current market indicators (as of 01:33 UTC on October 24):
- Market capitalization : $157.6 billion (ranked 4th)
- 24-hour increase : +4.31%
- 7-day gain : +1.4%
- Circulating Supply : 139.2 million BNB
Widespread market impact
The pardon event triggered a risk appetite shift across the crypto market, rotating from Bitcoin/Ethereum to Altcoin:
| Asset Class | Performance | Major currencies |
|---|---|---|
| Exchange Tokens | +3-5% | BNB (+4.3%), OKB (+2.9%), HTX (+3.1%) |
| Memecoin/political concept | +2-6% | DOGE (+2.04%), PEPE (+3.26%) |
| Layer 1 public chain | mix | SOL (+6.05%), SUI (+1.5%) |
| Trump-related tokens | +2% | OFFICIAL TRUMP, USD1 |
Total market capitalization increased to $3.42 trillion (+1.48%), and Bitcoin dominance fell from 58.5% to 57.9%, indicating a flow of funds into Altcoin .
Technical Analysis
Multi-timeframe technical status
| Timeframe | trend | RSI | MACD | Volume indicators | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 hour | Bullish | 61.3 | Bullish Crossover | CMF +0.097 (fund inflow) | 🟢 Kinetic Energy Enhancement |
| 4 hours | Bullish | 57.8 | Bullish Divergence | CMF +0.143 (strong capital inflow) | 🟢 Health Upward Trend |
| Daily Line | neutral | 51.7 | Bearish Divergence | CMF -0.01 (neutral) | 🟡 Oscillation consolidation |
The current price of $1,129.72 is at a key technical level, with clear short-term bullish momentum, but the daily MACD shows a cautious signal.
Key Price Levels
| type | Price | strength | Technical basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Support level | $1,100 | medium | 1-hour EMA50, 4-hour SMA200 confluence |
| Strong support | $1,082 | powerful | 1-hour Bollinger lower track, early consolidation low point |
| resistance level | $1,143 | powerful | 1-hour Bollinger upper band, recent high point |
| Strong resistance | $1,150 | medium | News-driven peak, 4-hour Bollinger upper band extension |
Derivatives Market Conditions
The futures market shows that investors are optimistic about the prospects of BNB:
- Open interest : +5.52% in 24 hours, Binance open interest reaches $778 million
- Funding Rate : -0.033% (shorts pay longs), indicating bullish sentiment
- Liquidation data : Short liquidations $3.14 million vs. Long liquidations $2.38 million
Liquidation risk analysis :
Social sentiment analysis
Twitter/X platform sentiment
The crypto community reacted extremely positively to the amnesty news, with #BNB discussions showing overwhelming bullish sentiment:
- Positive sentiment dominates : the community sees this as an "inflection point" in ecosystem growth, emphasizing increased builder energy and on-chain activity x.com
- #Binance is becoming more polarized : supporters celebrate the resolution of compliance issues, while critics question whether it favors companies with compliance issues .
Key figures expressed their views
Reactions within the Binance ecosystem:
- He Yi(Binance Co-founder) : Expressing gratitude and pledging to continue user-centric innovation x.com
- CZ himself : issued a statement of thanks and promised to "make the United States the capital of crypto" x.com
Market analysts’ views:
- Bullish : Altcoin Sherpa and other analysts predict BNB will continue to rise, targeting $1,400
- Traders are generally optimistic : they link the pardon with macroeconomic positives (such as the possibility of a Fed rate cut), and expect continued growth .
Shifting sentiment in the regulatory environment
The market generally interprets the pardon as a friendly shift in the US regulatory environment:
- The community believes this marks the end of the "crypto war" and expects policies to become more innovation-friendly.
- This is in stark contrast to past "regulatory crackdowns," raising expectations for a clearer regulatory framework .
On-chain activity analysis
BNB chain activity surges
On October 23rd, the day of the incident, various indicators of the BNB chain rose significantly:
| index | October 23rd values | vs. the previous day's change | vs. weekly average change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Number of transactions | 22.37 million transactions | +6.4% | +9.1% |
| Active sending addresses | 3.07 million | +10.0% | +15.8% |
| Gas usage | 3.37 trillion units | +6.9% | +6.9% |
| TVL | $8.64 billion | +5.58% | - |
This data suggests that the pardon news not only drove price increases, but also sparked actual on-chain usage activity.
Exchange Fund Flow
BNB balance changes on major exchanges (October 22-23):
- Binance : Net inflow of 552 BNB (approximately $590,000)
- OKX : Net outflow of 2,490 BNB (approximately $2.67 million)
- Overall : Net outflow from sample exchanges was approximately 1,938 BNB (approximately $2.07 million).
The small net outflow suggests that investors may be transferring BNB from exchanges to private wallets, indicating long-term holding intentions.
Comparison of historical events
Comparison of on-chain reactions to major events related to CZ/Binance:
| event | date | Changes in trading volume | Active address changes | Market sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Amnesty | October 23 | +6.4% | +10.0% | Positive rebound |
| 2024 sentencing | April 30 | +4.4% | -5.6% | Mixed reaction |
| 2023 Guilty Plea/Arrest | November 21 | -19.3% | -1.2% | panic selling |
The 2025 pardon event saw the most significant increase in on-chain activity, demonstrating the market’s strong reaction to this positive news.
Regulatory impact
Direct impact on Binance
The pardon cleared CZ’s personal criminal record, but Binance’s $4.3 billion settlement remains in effect:
- CZ's role : Possibly returning to leadership or advisory role, lifting of US business ban
- Binance Operations : Paving the way for re-entry into the US market, legalizing the relationship through $2 billion WLFI transaction (USD1 stablecoin) Reuters
- Compliance supervision : The three-year supervision period is still in effect, but regulatory pressure is expected to ease
Industry-wide impact
The amnesty is seen as a major turning point in the regulatory environment for the crypto industry:
- Policy signal : Ending the "crypto war" and possibly dropping SEC lawsuits against Coinbase and others
- Softening of enforcement : AML/sanctions enforcement standards are expected to be relaxed, but this also raises concerns about non-compliance.
- International reaction : EU/UK may strengthen regulation to offset US loose policies
Political controversy
The pardon decision sparked significant political controversy:
- Supporters’ view : Cardano founder Hoskinson said this heals the industry’s “deep wounds”
- Opponents question : Senator Warren accused this of being "corrupt" because the Trump family had $2 billion in business dealings with Binance through WLFI
in conclusion
Trump's pardon of CZ signals a significant shift in US crypto regulation, propelling Binance Coin (BNB) to a technical breakthrough and triggering a broad market rotation. In the short term, BNB has the technical conditions to continue its upward trend to $1,168 or even $1,200, supported by positive social sentiment, growing on-chain activity, and favorable derivatives positioning.
Long-term, the pardon paves the way for Binance to re-enter the US market, potentially attracting tens of billions of dollars into the BNB ecosystem. However, political controversy and potential international regulatory backlash remain significant risks. Investors should closely monitor a breakout above the $1,143-$1,150 resistance zone and any subsequent reaction from the US Congress.