<div><style>
    .source {
      font-size: 0;
    }
    .source a {
      display: inline-block;
      vertical-align: bottom;
    }
    .source img {
      pointer-events: none;
      border-radius: 50%;
      vertical-align: bottom;
      padding: 2px;
      display: inline;
      margin: 0;
    }
  </style>
<h3>Fireline Report</h3>
<p>The US September CPI will be released tonight, with market expectations for a 3.1% year-on-year increase. Cryptocurrencies are trading sideways in pre-market trading, with BTC stuck in the 107,000-111,000 range. If the CPI falls short of expectations, it could trigger a short-term rally, but otherwise, it could lead to another correction.</p>
<h3>Trading Guide</h3>
<p>Driven by events, pay attention to whether BTC will recover 111K after the CPI announcement. If it falls below 107K, be wary of the risk of retracement. Short-term volatility will intensify, so take profits while you can.</p>
<p style="margin-top: 20px; text-align: left; opacity: 0.4; padding: 0 42px"><small>Updated at 10-25 01:34</small><br><small>AI-generated summary, not investment advice</small></p></div>

<h1>US CPI data released tonight: Crypto market may experience severe volatility</h1><h2> Key Points</h2><p> Based on historical data and current market analysis, tonight&#39;s release of US CPI data <strong>is highly likely</strong> to trigger a sharp move in the crypto market. Bitcoin is currently at a critical technical level, the derivatives market is highly leveraged, and social media sentiment is tense. All factors point to <strong>an imminent 3-7% volatility</strong> .</p><h2> Current market positioning analysis</h2><h3> Price range and technology status</h3><p> Bitcoin is currently trading in a narrow range of <strong>$107,000-$111,000</strong> , reaching a critical technical juncture. <a href="https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-price-us-inflation-crypto-cpi-federal-reserve-090028581.html">Yahoo Finance</a> <a href="https://coincentral.com/bitcoin-and-ethereum-hold-steady-as-traders-watch-for-us-cpi-data/">reports</a> that Ethereum is fluctuating between <strong>$3,800-$3,900</strong> , with trading volume up 33% compared to the previous period.</p><table><thead><tr><th> assets</th><th> Current Price</th><th> 24-hour increase</th><th> Key support</th><th> Key resistance</th><th> Volatility</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td> BTC</td><td> $110,598</td><td> +2.23%</td><td> $108,801</td><td> $110,971</td><td> 37.6%</td></tr><tr><td> ETH</td><td> $3,880</td><td> +1.52%</td><td> $3,800</td><td> $4,000</td><td> 21.9%</td></tr></tbody></table><h3> ETF fund flows and institutional positioning</h3><p> BTC spot ETF fund flows have diverged: <strong>a net outflow of $123 million</strong> occurred in late October, but recently rebounded to <strong>a single-day inflow of $477.2 million</strong> . <a href="https://coinmarketcap.com/academy/article/ethereum-etfs-lose-dollar145m-as-cpi-report-looms">The</a> <a href="https://www.bitget.com/news/detail/12560605027288">Bitget</a> ETH ETF recorded <strong>a net inflow of $110.7 million</strong> on October 22, but saw an outflow of $145 million the previous day.</p><p> Institutional positioning shows caution: large investors closed <strong>$227.8 million in shorts</strong> below $110,000, but &quot;OG insider&quot; whales increased their short positions by 2,100 BTC (about $227 million) in Hyperliquid.</p><h2> Analysis of Historical CPI Response Patterns</h2><h3> How CPI data impacts the crypto market</h3><p> The past 24 months of CPI data releases show that the crypto market <strong>is highly sensitive</strong> to inflation data, showing the following patterns:</p><table><thead><tr><th> CPI results</th><th> Frequency</th><th> BTC average reaction</th><th> ETH reaction</th><th> Volatility peak</th><th> Recovery time</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td> Higher than expected</td><td> 33% (8/24)</td><td> -2.5%</td><td> -3% to -5%</td><td> 4-6%</td><td> 4-7 days</td></tr><tr><td> Lower than expected</td><td> 42% (10/24)</td><td> +2.8%</td><td> +3% to +6%</td><td> 3-5%</td><td> 2-5 days extension</td></tr><tr><td> Meets expectations</td><td> 25% (6/24)</td><td> 0-1.5%</td><td> 0-2%</td><td> 2-4%</td><td> sideways</td></tr></tbody></table><p> <strong>Key historical cases</strong> :</p><ul><li> <strong>January 2024</strong> : CPI actual 3.4% vs. expected 3.2%, BTC falls 2% to $48,800, then rebounds 4% within 3 days</li><li> <strong>May 2024</strong> : CPI is lower than expected, BTC rises 2% to $63,700, and continues to rise to $66,000 within 3 days</li><li> <strong>January 2025</strong> : CPI exceeds expectations to 3.0%, BTC falls 2.3% to $94,250, recovers within 7 days</li></ul><h2> Technical analysis and key price levels</h2><h3> Volatility indicator warnings</h3><p> Current technical indicators suggest that <strong>extremely high volatility</strong> is about to be released: <reference tool_id="call_06424750" category="heatmap" project="BTC" description="BTC OI USD and 24h change percent by exchange at 2025-10-24 01:57 UTC"/></p><ul><li> <strong>Actual volatility (30-day annualized)</strong> : 37.6%, much higher than the normal 1-2%</li><li> <strong>Implied Volatility</strong> : 47.5%, Level IV: 43.5%</li><li> <strong>ATR daily</strong> : $3,862, indicating a 3.5% intraday fluctuation</li></ul><h3> Key price levels and breakout/breakout scenarios</h3><table><thead><tr><th> scene</th><th> Trigger Conditions</th><th> Target price</th><th> Stop Loss</th><th> Risk-Reward Ratio</th><th> Probability</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td> 🟢 Breakthrough (CPI cooling)</td><td> Breakthrough $112,197</td><td> $117,000-$120,000</td><td> $108,800</td><td> 3.21</td><td> 40%</td></tr><tr><td> 🔴 Breaking below (CPI overheating)</td><td> Falling below $108,801</td><td> $100,000-$105,000</td><td> $112,000</td><td> 3.80</td><td> 60%</td></tr></tbody></table><p> <strong>Key technical bits</strong> :</p><ul><li> <strong>Strong support</strong> : $108,801 (1-hour Bollinger Band), $107,713 ($1.57B long liquidation accumulation)</li><li> <strong>Strong resistance</strong> : $112,197 (4-hour EMA200), $113,463 (daily EMA50)</li></ul><h2> Derivatives Positioning and Liquidation Risk</h2><h3> Futures and Options Market Signals </h3><p><reference tool_id="call_95695682" category="mix_bar_line_options" project="BTC" description="BTC options open interest and max pain data by exchange and expiration date"/><reference tool_id="call_98149869" category="mix_bar_line_liquidation" project="BTC" description="BTC liquidation risk map by price level and exchange (1d period) at 2025-10-24 01:57 UTC"/></p><ul><li> <strong>Total open interest</strong> : $69.6B (+2.35% 24h), rising steadily, indicating leverage accumulation</li><li> <strong>Funding rate</strong> : Binance 0.0039%, Bybit 0.0056% (longs pay shorts)</li><li> <strong>The biggest pain point of options</strong> : $113,000, forming upward resistance with the current price</li></ul><h3> Liquidation risk analysis</h3><p> Liquidation maps show <strong>severe asymmetric risk</strong> :</p><ul><li> <strong>Downside risk</strong> : $2.12B in long positions liquidated below $106.7K, with $107.7K/$108K as the main concentration points.</li><li> <strong>Upside risk</strong> : $1.37B in cumulative short liquidations above $114K, concentrated at $111.8K/$112.2K</li></ul><p> 24-hour liquidations: $61.6M total ($47M short vs $14M long), indicating a recent short squeeze.</p><h2> Social sentiment and market expectations</h2><h3> Trader Positioning and Fear Indicators</h3><p> Social media analysis shows <strong>cautious optimism but risk aversion</strong> : <a href="https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1978062478845067471">x.com</a></p><ul><li> <strong>Major concern</strong> : Overheated CPI could trigger a liquidation waterfall, testing the psychological support of $100K</li><li> <strong>Strategy preference</strong> : Avoid aggressive short before CPI, and wait for the &quot;trading reaction&quot; after the data.</li><li> <strong>Consensus forecast</strong> : CPI &gt; 3.1% bearish, &lt; 3.1% bullish, sideways as expected</li></ul><p> <strong>Market positioning analysis</strong> :</p><ul><li> Derivatives market trend bearish (positive funding rates + whales increasing short positions)</li><li> However, exchange reserves fell 4.5% to 2.41M BTC, indicating a long-term hoarding trend.</li><li> <a href="https://x.com/jack/status/1979880332175495586">x.com</a> <a href="https://x.com/PeterSchiff/status/1978855411840135332">x.com</a></li></ul><h2> CPI scenario analysis and trading strategies</h2><h3> Market reaction forecast for three CPI results</h3><p> Based on historical patterns and current positioning, here are some possible scenarios for tonight:</p><p> <strong>🔥 Hot CPI scenario (&gt;3.1%) - 60% probability</strong></p><ul><li> <strong>Immediate reaction</strong> : BTC fell 2-4% to $106K-$108K, ETH fell 3-5%.</li><li> <strong>Liquidation Waterfall</strong> : Triggering $1.57B in long liquidations, accelerating the price down to $100K-$105K</li><li> <strong>Recovery time</strong> : 4-7 days, depending on ETF inflow buffer</li></ul><p> <strong>❄️ Cold CPI scenario (&lt;3.1%) - 40% probability</strong></p><ul><li> <strong>Immediate reaction</strong> : BTC rose 3-4% to $114K-$117K, ETH rose 4-6%.</li><li> <strong>Short squeeze</strong> : Triggers $1.37B in short liquidations, pushing towards $120K target</li><li> <strong>Continuity</strong> : 2-5 days of continuous rise, in line with the end-of-year liquidity</li></ul><p> <strong>😐 Expected scenario (=3.1%) - low probability</strong></p><ul><li> <strong>Sideways</strong> : ±1.5% fluctuation, maintaining the range of $108K-$112K</li><li> <strong>Focus</strong> : Turning to the October 29th FOMC meeting (96% probability of a 25bp rate cut)</li></ul><h2> in conclusion</h2><p> Based on technical analysis, historical patterns, derivatives positioning, and social sentiment, tonight&#39;s CPI data release <strong>is almost certain</strong> to trigger significant volatility in the crypto market. Key factors include high leverage, asymmetric liquidation risk, and the market&#39;s high sensitivity to inflation data. Investors should be prepared for <strong>significant price fluctuations of 3-7%</strong> and closely monitor the $106,000-$108,000 support level and the $112,000-$114,000 resistance level.</p>
