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<h3>Fireline Report</h3>
<p>Meteora (MET), the Solana ecosystem's liquidity protocol, was simultaneously listed on major platforms including Coinbase, Binance, OKX, and Bybit. Airdrops totaled over $10 million, with a single entity receiving $10 million and addresses associated with the Trump team receiving $4.2 million, which was transferred to OKX. The pre-market price briefly dipped below $0.75, representing a 24.5% drop in 24 hours.</p>
<h3>Trading Guide</h3>
<p>Event-driven, keep an eye on the $0.75 mark; a sustained breach could trigger a second pullback. The pressure from the airdrop is high, and short-term volatility is volatile. It's recommended to wait for a pullback and stabilization before considering an entry point, and be wary of concentrated selling pressure from large investors.</p>
<p style="margin-top: 20px; text-align: left; opacity: 0.4; padding: 0 42px"><small>Updated at 10-25 03:53</small><br><small>AI-generated summary, not investment advice</small></p></div>

<h1>MET&#39;s simultaneous launch on multiple platforms: An analysis of the evolution of airdrops and liquidity game</h1><h2> Core Dynamics Overview</h2><p> <strong>Meteora (MET)</strong> held its Token Generation Event (TGE) at 13:00 UTC on October 23, 2025, and was simultaneously listed on eight major exchanges, sparking a new round of discussion in the crypto market regarding airdrop mechanisms and liquidity game theory. <strong>The instant unlocking of 48% of the supply (480 million MET)</strong> created one of the largest simultaneous liquidity releases in the history of the Solana ecosystem.</p><table><thead><tr><th> Key Metrics</th><th> Numerical</th><th> change</th><th> Time point</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td> <strong>Current Price</strong></td><td> $0.586</td><td> -37.64% (24h) / -50.81% (7d)</td><td> 2025-10-24 04:30 UTC</td></tr><tr><td> <strong>Market capitalization</strong></td><td> $281M</td><td> ATH: $1.71 → Current: $0.586</td><td> Peak retracement 65.79%</td></tr><tr><td> <strong>24h trading volume</strong></td><td> $174M</td><td> About 62% of market value</td><td> High turnover indicates speculation</td></tr><tr><td> <strong>Protocol TVL</strong></td><td> $852M</td><td> +5.5% (rebound after launch)</td><td> Basic protocol health</td></tr></tbody></table><h2> Analysis of multi-platform simultaneous launch strategies</h2><h3> Exchange layout and timing design</h3><p> MET adopted an unprecedented <strong>multi-level simultaneous launch strategy</strong> , launching simultaneously on eight major CEXs within one hour after the TGE (14:00 UTC):</p><table><thead><tr><th> Exchange</th><th> Online time</th><th> Product Type</th><th> Special Mechanisms</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td> <strong>Binance Alpha</strong></td><td> 13:00 UTC</td><td> Points redemption + contract</td><td> 226 points threshold, 32 MET/user</td></tr><tr><td> <strong>Bybit</strong></td><td> 14:00 UTC</td><td> Spot + Contract</td><td> 400,000 MET Trading Competition Prize Pool</td></tr><tr><td> <strong>OKX</strong></td><td> 14:00 UTC</td><td> Spot + Contract</td><td> Wallet seamless integration</td></tr><tr><td> <strong>MEXC</strong></td><td> 13:00 UTC</td><td> Spot priority</td><td> $75,000 USDT reward pool</td></tr><tr><td> <strong>Backpack</strong></td><td> 2:00 PM UTC</td><td> Native Solana</td><td> Low-fee perpetual contracts</td></tr></tbody></table><p> <strong>Price discovery effect</strong> : The simultaneous launch brought together approximately $200 million in liquidity within an hour, quickly establishing a &quot;fair value&quot; range of $0.55-$0.60. <a href="https://www.techflowpost.com/newsletter/detail_102794.html">However</a> , <a href="https://www.odaily.news/zh-CN/newsflash/453636">this</a> also amplified selling pressure, resulting in a significant gap between the pre-market price ($0.80) and the actual opening price ($0.69) and subsequent lows ($0.52).</p><h3> Arbitrage opportunities and spread convergence</h3><p> The simultaneous launch design minimizes inter-exchange price spreads (typically &lt;0.2%), but still creates short-term arbitrage opportunities:</p><ul><li> <strong>Pre-market vs. spot arbitrage</strong> : From Binance Alpha pre-market price of $0.80 to CEX opening price of $0.54, the arbitrage margin reached 26%.</li><li> <strong>DEX-CEX price spread arbitrage</strong> : Jupiter/Meteora AG initially has a 2-4% premium, and can earn 3-5% through bridges such as Backpack.</li><li> <strong>Perpetual-spot basis arbitrage</strong> : Early perpetual contracts had a 2-4% premium, but this quickly converged with high volatility.</li></ul><h2> Airdrop Mechanism and Distribution Game</h2><h3> Airdrop size and distribution structure</h3><p> The MET airdrop became <strong>the second largest airdrop in the Solana ecosystem</strong> , distributing 15-25% of the total supply (150-250 million MET): <reference tool_id="call_29499453" category="bar_tvl" project="Meteora" description="Meteora protocol TVL from 2025-10-01 to 2025-10-24" item_id="aead7cc8-ad7d-48a5-92d4-63da93eac1cc"/></p><table><thead><tr><th> Allocation Category</th><th> Proportion</th><th> Amount</th><th> Beneficiary groups</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td> <strong>LP Incentives</strong></td><td> 15%</td><td> ~$75M</td><td> Active liquidity providers</td></tr><tr><td> <strong>MER holders</strong></td><td> 20%</td><td> ~$100M</td><td> Former Mercurial user</td></tr><tr><td> <strong>Jupiter Ecosystem</strong></td><td> 3%</td><td> ~$15M</td><td> JUP stakers</td></tr><tr><td> <strong>Binance Alpha</strong></td><td> Special</td><td> $1.2M</td><td> Users with 226 points or more</td></tr></tbody></table><p> <strong>Game mechanism innovation</strong> : MET introduces <strong>a dual claim option</strong> - users can choose to claim MET tokens directly, or choose the liquidity distributor NFT to obtain transaction fee income without directly selling. This mechanism is designed to reduce the pressure of immediate selling.</p><h3> Whale and concentrated selling</h3><p> On-chain data shows that there are serious <strong>centralization risks</strong> in airdrop distribution:</p><ul><li> <strong>Biggest beneficiary</strong> : A single entity received approximately $10 million in MET through associated wallets (suspected of a Sybil attack)</li><li> <strong>Politically linked selling</strong> : Trump-linked wallets received $4.2 million in MET and immediately sold it on OKX.</li><li> <strong>Melania Token Correlation</strong> : $1.2 million transferred to exchanges, increasing selling pressure</li></ul><p> <a href="https://crypto.news/meteora-crashes-40-as-trump-linked-insiders-corner-airdrop/">These</a> large-scale concentrated sell-offs are the main driving force behind the 40% price drop, which shows the shortcomings of <a href="https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/2aa1e-trump-team-wallets-airdrop-recipients">the</a> current airdrop distribution mechanism in preventing Sybil attacks.</p><h2> Evolutionary Path of Liquidity Game</h2><h3> Short-term game: Sell vs. Hold</h3><p> <strong>Sell-dominated phase</strong> (October 23-24):</p><ul><li> <strong>80-93% of recipients choose to sell immediately</strong> , which is consistent with historical airdrop patterns (such as UNI’s 93% sell-off rate).</li><li> <strong>Concentrated selling window</strong> : 75% of similar airdrops are completed within the first week, and MET follows this pattern</li><li> <strong>Price Discovery Mechanism</strong> : From ATH $1.71 to the current $0.586, finding the true valuation bottom line</li></ul><p> <strong>Holder strategy</strong> : About 7-20% choose to hold, mainly to obtain transaction fee income through NFT liquidity options without direct selling. <reference tool_id="call_20342185" category="bar_fees" project="Meteora" description="Meteora protocol fees and revenue from 2025-10-01 to 2025-10-24" item_id="e6d8adb1-f239-4fad-8b27-bdd575758924"/></p><h3> Mid-term Game: Liquidity Provision vs. Trading</h3><p> <strong>Protocol data shows a balanced trend</strong> :</p><table><thead><tr><th> Activity Type</th><th> Proportion</th><th> 24h data</th><th> trend</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td> <strong>Trading activities</strong></td><td> ~75%</td><td> $438M in trading volume</td><td> Dominant but declining</td></tr><tr><td> <strong>Liquidity provision</strong></td><td> ~20-25%</td><td> 93.7 million MET entered the pool</td><td> Incentive-driven growth</td></tr><tr><td> <strong>Cost allocation</strong></td><td> Stablize</td><td> $3.56 million daily fee</td><td> LP income guarantee</td></tr></tbody></table><p> <strong>Liquidity incentive effect</strong> : 25% of the MET supply is allocated to liquidity (20% for 2-year mining rewards + 5% for market-making reserves), driving approximately 19.5% of the circulating supply into the LP pool, forming <strong>a dynamic balance between trading and liquidity provision</strong> . <reference tool_id="call_92812391" category="bar_volume" project="Meteora" description="Meteora protocol DEX volume from 2025-10-01 to 2025-10-24" item_id="b53db76f-8ae8-4f13-8fcd-31d0ca19a0fc"/></p><h3> The Long Game: Protocol Value vs. Speculation</h3><p> <strong>Fundamental support</strong> :</p><ul><li> <strong>TVL</strong> : $852M (26% of Solana DEX market share), maintaining steady growth since launch</li><li> <strong>Revenue Model</strong> : $1.1 billion in annualized fee revenue, creating sustainable value for LPs and token holders</li><li> <strong>Technical advantages</strong> : Dynamic Liquidity Pool (DLMM) and Dynamic AMM (DAMM) provide capital efficiency advantages</li></ul><p> <strong>Speculative pressure</strong> :</p><ul><li> <strong>High turnover rate</strong> : 24h trading volume accounts for 62% of market capitalization, indicating high speculation</li><li> <strong>Derivatives leverage</strong> : Open interest surges 487% to $56.7 million, with a fierce bull-bear game. <reference tool_id="call_57615801" category="heatmap" project="MET" description="MET OI USD and 24h change percent by exchange at 2025-10-24 04:29 UTC"/></li><li> <strong>Liquidation risk</strong> : $2.38 million liquidated within 24 hours, 65% of which were long positions. <reference tool_id="call_50740407" category="mix_bar_line_liquidation" project="MET" description="MET liquidation risk map by price level and exchange (1d period) at 2025-10-24 04:29 UTC"/></li></ul><h2> Community sentiment and gaming psychology</h2><h3> Fairness Dispute</h3><p> <strong>Support sound</strong> :</p><ul><li> <strong>Transparency Innovation</strong> : The &quot;True Price Discovery&quot; mechanism without token lock-up has been recognized by protocol builders</li><li> <strong>Ecological alignment</strong> : Jupiter stakers receiving airdrops are seen as a &quot;victory of ecological collaboration&quot;</li><li> <strong>Liquidity Incentives</strong> : LP NFT options provide alternative value capture for long-term participants</li></ul><p> <strong>Criticisms</strong> :</p><ul><li> <strong>Uneven distribution</strong> : MER holders received 20% of the distribution, raising questions about the fairness of &quot;old project users are better than new users&quot;</li><li> <strong>Sybil Attack</strong> : Large associated wallets receive a disproportionate share, weakening the benefits of real users</li><li> <strong>Short-term focus</strong> : 48% immediate unlocking criticized as a &quot;reckless experiment to test market resilience&quot;</li></ul><h3> KOL and institutional perspectives</h3><p> <strong>Bullish logic</strong> : Based on the fundamentals of the protocol, MET is benchmarked against PancakeSwap and Uniswap, with a target price of $2-2.5. It is believed that the current price has reflected the selling pressure and has long-term value investment opportunities.</p><p> <strong>Bearish concerns</strong> : Worries that continued unlocking pressure and speculation will obscure the true value of the protocol. It is recommended to wait until the selling pressure is digested before making any allocations.</p><h2> Prediction of evolutionary trends</h2><h3> Short term (1-2 weeks): Selling pressure digestion period</h3><ul><li> <strong>Technical analysis</strong> : RSI is deeply oversold (23-32), MACD shows a potential rebound signal, but the $0.48 support level becomes the key</li><li> <strong>Fundamentals</strong> : The 6-month airdrop claim window means that selling pressure will gradually release, and it is expected that 75-80% will be digested in the first week.</li><li> <strong>Catalyst</strong> : Stable growth in the protocol’s TVL and sustained fee income will provide bottom support for prices.</li></ul><h3> Medium term (1-3 months): Revaluation period</h3><ul><li> <strong>Liquidity Reconstruction</strong> : As speculative funds leave the market, real LP demand and protocol usage value will become the main drivers of price.</li><li> <strong>Institutional allocation</strong> : $852M TVL and a stable income model may attract DeFi-focused fund allocation</li><li> <strong>Competitive Landscape</strong> : Competition with Raydium in the Solana DEX space will determine long-term market share</li></ul><h3> Long term (6 months+): ecological value realization period</h3><ul><li> <strong>Token economics mature</strong> : 20% of the 2-year mining allocation will be gradually released to form a more balanced supply and demand structure</li><li> <strong>Protocol Moat</strong> : Can technical advantages such as dynamic liquidity pools be transformed into sustainable competitive advantages?</li><li> <strong>Regulatory adaptation</strong> : As an infrastructure protocol, regulatory clarity will affect the scale of institutional capital inflows</li></ul><h2> in conclusion</h2><p> MET&#39;s simultaneous multi-platform launch and 48% instant unlocking experiment demonstrates <strong>a new exploration of DeFi protocol token distribution mechanisms</strong> , pursuing transparency and fairness while also enduring significant short-term price pressure. The current price of $0.586 has largely reflected the impact of the airdrop sell-off. <strong>The protocol&#39;s fundamentals ($852M TVL, 26% Solana market share) support its long-term value</strong> , but the ultimate trajectory of the game depends on whether the protocol can maintain its technological and ecological advantages amidst competition, as well as the scale of actual demand after speculative capital is absorbed.</p><p> For participants, <strong>in the short term, they should focus on the degree to which selling pressure is absorbed; in the medium term, they should focus on evaluating the evolution of the protocol&#39;s competitiveness; and in the long term, they should judge the changes in Solana DeFi&#39;s ecological status</strong> . The success or failure of this experiment will provide important reference for the future design of DeFi protocol tokens.</p>
