In-depth analysis of SYRUP's termination of pledge & 25% revenue buyback (MIP-019)
TL;DR
Maple Finance's MIP-019 proposal aims to end stSYRUP staking rewards in November and inject 25% of protocol revenue into the "Syrup Strategic Fund (SSF)" for market buybacks and market making. Snapshot voting showed 91% support as of October 29th. If passed, this would allocate 25% (approximately $375,000) of the approximately $1 million monthly revenue to buybacks, creating structural deflation. On-chain TVL rose 11.7% in seven days; SYRUP price rose 14% in seven days, technically returning above its long-term moving average.
Core Analysis
1. Key Points and Roadmap of the Proposal
| milestone | time | Event Description |
|---|---|---|
| Proposal Announcement | October 28 | MIP-019 "Activate the SSF & Sunset Staking" was released on the forum and Snapshot. |
| Community voting | October 27–31 | As of October 29th, the approval rating was 91% (x.com). |
| Termination of Pledge | mid-november | The stSYRUP reward stream has stopped; existing stSYRUP can be redeemed at any time. |
| SSF Startup | Starting in December | 25% of the monthly proceeds from the agreement will be used for open market buybacks & LP provision. |
| governance expansion | synchronous | Unstaken Syrup can also be used for voting, enhancing decentralization. |
Proposal Objectives:
- Replacing inflation-linked share issuance with revenue-linked buybacks reduces selling pressure and is tied to business growth.
- Improving capital efficiency to support RWA's credit expansion (AUM has reached $4 billion) (messari )
- Provides a more robust token economic model for cross-chain and institutional deployments (integration of Solana, Linea, and Aave) finance.yahoo
2. On-chain data insights
TVL & Revenue
| index | 10-22 | 10-29 | 7D Changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| TVL | $2.83 billion | $3.16 billion | +11.7% |
| Agreement Fees (7D Cumulative) | – | $936,000 | — |
TVL continued to climb over the past week, with a single-day increase of 4.9% after the announcement; the total expenses over 7 days amounted to nearly $940,000, of which approximately $234,000 will be used for the first month's buyback if the MIP-019 rule is followed.
Derivatives and Liquidity
- As of 20:21 UTC, open interest in SYRUP perpetual contracts was approximately $31 million , a 36% increase in the past 24 hours, with funding rates at +0.005%, indicating news-driven long positions being added.
- DEX trading volume rose to $7.1 million from October 10th to 29th, a 239% increase from the beginning of the week, indicating that it was a prelude to buybacks.
3. Social Emotions
| Role | Opinion | taking state |
|---|---|---|
| @maplefinance Official | "The pledge mission has been completed; revenue-driven buybacks will create long-term value." | 🟢 |
| @Crypto_McKenna | Maple is described as "moving towards institutional-grade DeFi" and viewed favorably | _2024111120230_ | Supply contraction | 🟢 x.com |
Overall discussion volume remains limited due to the novelty of the news, but highly engaged posts are almost unanimously bullish, echoed by high support in the governance vote. (crypto.news)
4. Technical Analysis
| cycle | trend | RSI | Key moving averages | Support/Resistance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1H | long | 78 (Overbought) | EMA12 $0.407 | S $0.400 / R $0.426 |
| 4H | long | 75 (Overbought) | SMA50 $0.381 | S $0.400 / R $0.445 |
| 1D | long | 59 (Neutral) | SMA200 $0.400 | S $0.400 / R $0.460 |
The current price is $0.4345 , a 14% increase in seven days, and it has regained its position above the 200-day moving average. If the daily close breaks through $0.445, it may challenge the June high of $0.460. (coinmarketcap)
- Long position strategy : Buy in the $0.400–$0.420 range, target $0.460, stop loss $0.380, R:R≈1.6.
- Pullback risk : The short-term RSI is overbought. If profit-taking occurs before the vote, the price may pull back to $0.400 to secure liquidity. (mitrade)
Potential impacts and risks
- Deflation-driven : Monthly repurchase of ~25% of revenue, assuming TVL and expenses remain unchanged, will bring continuous buying pressure to SYRUP, hedging against potential selling pressure after the expiration of staking rewards.
- Income Sensitivity : If RWA credit experiences a macroeconomic downturn, the resulting decrease in fees will directly weaken the scale of repurchase agreements, leading to a lower-than-expected deflationary pressure.
- Liquidity migration : The stSYRUP released by staking exits may initially cause short-term selling pressure, and the peak of on-chain unlocking around November needs to be observed.
- Centralized governance : Although non-staking holders can vote to broaden participation, whale addresses are more likely to concentrate tokens and influence decision-making, requiring further observation of voting distribution.
in conclusion
MIP-019 marks Maple Finance's shift from an incentive-driven growth phase to an income-driven value-return model. The termination of staking reduces inflation, and the 25% fixed buyback links the protocol fee to token value. Against the backdrop of rapid expansion of RWA assets and record-high TVL, this change significantly improves the supply and demand structure of SYRUP. Short-term volatility due to staking exits should be monitored, but in the medium to long term, if Maple maintains monthly revenue in the millions of dollars, SYRUP may enter a positive feedback loop of sustained deflation, providing a solid floor for the price and opening up upward potential.