Analysis of the Impact of Short Selling and Unlocking in APT Contracts
summary
As of November 7, 2025 UTC, the APT contract market presents a complex situation: while short positions exist, they do not completely dominate the market . The October unlocking window has closed (11.31 million APT, worth approximately $59.6 million, were unlocked on October 11), and the current price is $2.99, a significant drop from before the unlocking. Funding rates remain negative (-0.1% to -0.3%), indicating pressure on short positions, but the long-short ratio is basically balanced.
Analysis of the bearish trend in the contract market
Current status of long/short ratio
| Exchange | Open interest | Account Long/Short Ratio | Long/Short Ratio | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Binance | $76.25M (+18.2%) | 1.92 | 0.995 | Mixed signals: Retail investors are bullish, and positions are close to balanced. |
| Bybit | $74.43M (+19.8%) | N/A | 1.08 | Slightly bullish: Position slightly biased towards long positions |
| OKX | $22.51M (+20.7%) | 1.88 | 1.06 | Bullish: Both accounts and positions are biased towards long positions. |
| Bitget | $17.94M (+58.3%) | N/A | 0.88 | Bearish bias: Positions are predominantly short, with the fastest growth. |
Funding rates indicate short-selling pressure
Funding rates on all major exchanges are negative, indicating that short sellers are paying fees to long sellers:
- Binance : -0.277% (every 8 hours)
- OKX : -0.307% (Maximum stress)
- Bybit : -0.125%
- Bitget : -0.114%
The weighted average funding rate is -0.20%, indicating that short sellers are under continuous cost pressure.
Liquidation data confirms short sellers' vulnerability.
Recent 24-hour clearing data shows that short sellers are more vulnerable to shocks:
- Total liquidation : $702.01K
- Long position liquidation : $262.59K (37%)
- Short liquidation : $439.42K (63%)
The fact that short positions were liquidated at a rate of 63% demonstrates that rising prices put greater pressure on short sellers.
October Unlocking Events Review and Impact
Unlock details
Unlock event on October 11, 2025 :
- Unlocked quantity : 11,309,800 APTs
- Unlock value : Approximately $59.6 million (based on a pre-unlock price of $5.27)
- This represents 0.96% of the total supply and 2.15% of the circulating supply.
Allocation details :
- Core contributors: 3.96 million APTs (35%)
- Community: 3.21 million APTs (28%)
- Investors: 2.81 million APT (25%)
- Foundation: 1.33 million APTs (12%)
Market shock assessment
Short-term price impact :
- On the day of unlocking, the price fell by 8-10%, hitting a low of $4.85.
- Net daily decline was -3.2%, which is relatively mild compared to the previous 15% decline.
- Approximately 40% of the unlocked tokens flowed to exchanges within 48 hours.
Long-term trend : From October 1 to November 7, APT fell by about 42% (from $5.50 to $2.73), mainly due to macroeconomic factors rather than simply unlocking pressure.
Social sentiment and market expectations
Main narrative analysis
Bearish views :
- The founders' sell-off after the deal was unlocked was a weak signal of commitment.
- TVL decline and sluggish on-chain revenue
- Leveraged long positions face liquidation risk
See more voices :
- Growth of ecosystem partners (such as Reliance Jio integration)
- BlackRock's RWA deployment lists APT as a top-level project on x.com.
- The number of active addresses has doubled to 1.8 million within 30 days .
Opinion Leaders' Views
Bullish : Technical analysts believe a reversal is possible once the key support level holds . Bearish : Criticism of the unlocking mechanism leads to sustained selling pressure; predicts valuations will fall below $1 billion during the bear market.
Overall sentiment leans towards cautious bearishness, but ecosystem development provides support for long-term holders.
On-chain fund flow analysis
Funds flow after unlocking
Within 48 hours of unlocking on October 11 :
- Approximately 6.5 million APTs (57%) flowed to exchanges.
- Main targets: Binance and OKX hot wallets
- The remaining 4.8 million APTs will be allocated to holders and ecosystem projects.
whale behavior
Cumulative vs. Distributed :
- The whale has accumulated approximately 15 million APT (worth $45 million).
- The cumulative vs. distribution ratio is 1.5:1, indicating institutional confidence.
- The three major holders accumulated approximately 8 million APTs after the accounts were unlocked.
Conclusions and Outlook
Current status assessment :
- Short sellers exist but are not dominant : negative funding rates indicate short-selling pressure, but long liquidation is limited and institutional positions continue to accumulate.
- The impact of the unlocking has been absorbed : the direct shock from the October unlocking has passed, and prices are now more influenced by the macroeconomic environment.
- Technical equilibrium : The 24.8% increase in open interest indicates increased participation, and the forces of bulls and bears are nearing equilibrium.
Risk warning :
- A similar amount of APTs will be unlocked on November 12 (approximately 11.3 million APTs, worth approximately $28.3 million).
- If Bitcoin weakens, short sellers may regain control.
- Persistent negative funding rates may trigger short covering, driving a short-term rebound.
The market is currently in a relatively balanced state. It is recommended to pay close attention to signals of positive funding rates and changes in open interest to determine trend reversal points.