Analysis of the Upbit Hack and the Bitcoin Rebound
Key findings
Lazarus Group Suspected : South Korean authorities strongly suspect that the North Korean Lazarus group was involved in the $30.4 million hack of the Upbit exchange on November 27, but this has not yet been definitively confirmed.
Limited impact on Bitcoin : Although the hack occurred during a technical rebound in Bitcoin, market data shows that the impact was minimal, with Bitcoin's price movement primarily driven by other technical factors.
Hacking incident details
Attack Overview
Time and Scale : An abnormal data extraction occurred at 4:42 AM KST on November 27th, involving 44.5 billion Korean won (approximately US$30.4 million). (Reuters )
Affected assets : Over 20 Solana ecosystem tokens, including SOL, USDC, BONK, JUP, RAY, RENDER, ORCA, PYTH, etc. (coindesk )
Funds Flow : The hackers transferred funds to unauthorized external wallets, including approximately 12 billion Korean won (US$8 million) worth of LAYER tokens, which were frozen via on-chain measures. (coindesk)
Lazarus organizational attribution evidence
| Similar features | 2019 attack | 2025 attack |
|---|---|---|
| Attack Date | November 27 | November 27 |
| amount stolen | 58 billion won | 44.5 billion won |
| attack methods | Administrator credential hijacking | Suspected administrator credential hijacking |
| Money mixing | yes | in progress |
South Korean government sources told Yonhap News Agency that they suspect the involvement of Lazarus, an organization affiliated with the North Korean Reconnaissance General Bureau, but the National Police Agency and the National Intelligence Service declined to comment, and the investigation is ongoing.
Bitcoin Price Impact Analysis
Overview of rebound momentum
November Price Movement : Bitcoin fell 17.3% overall from November 1 to 28, from $110,103.6 to $91,111.5, hitting a low of $84,721.6 on November 22.
Technical rebound : A significant rebound occurred after the low on November 22, with the price rising 7.8% to $91,324.6 by November 27, representing a 45.6% retracement of the decline from the high on November 3 ($110,736.3) to the low on November 22.
Bitcoin's performance on the day of the hack : On November 28, Bitcoin fell slightly by 0.23% to $91,111.5, with relatively low trading volume ($48,260), possibly related to negative external news.
Technical indicator analysis
| index | November 28th values | Signal Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| RSI(14) | 42.21 | Neutral, rebounding from the oversold level of 18.36 on November 23. |
| MACD | -2,341.88 | Still negative but above the signal line, indicating a bullish divergence within a bearish trend. |
| EMA(12) | $90,534.83 | Slightly below price, providing short-term support. |
| EMA(26) | $92,876.71 | Above the price level confirms a medium-term downtrend. |
Key support and resistance levels : $84,000 is the main support (tested and held on November 22), and $92,000 is the resistance (rejected multiple times).
Market sentiment and social reaction
Community Response Characteristics
Sentiment is stable : There is no widespread panic or crisis of confidence on social media; discussions are mainly focused on news reports rather than market fears. (x.com )
Influencer perspectives : Prominent accounts such as Coin Bureau reported on Lazarus's alleged involvement but offered no further comment on its market impact. x.com
Lack of price correlation : No discussion was found in highly engaged tweets about a direct correlation between the hacking incident and Bitcoin price movements.
Market resilience
Limited impact : While the Solana ecosystem was involved, the broader cryptocurrency market showed resilience, with prices remaining stable after the event.
Other positive factors : ETF inflows and other bullish factors offset the negative impact of the hack .
in conclusion
Lazarus attribution : Based on the similarities in the timing, methods, and historical patterns of the attacks, South Korean authorities have reasonable grounds to suspect the involvement of the North Korean Lazarus organization, but further investigation is needed to confirm this.
Market Impact Assessment : The Upbit hack had a negligible impact on Bitcoin's rebound momentum. While a slight dip occurred on November 28th, this was more likely a continuation of a technical correction than a direct result of the hack. Bitcoin's overall price movement remains primarily driven by technical indicators, macroeconomic factors, and market sentiment, rather than a single exchange incident.
Risk Management : Upbit has committed to fully compensating users for their losses and has transferred assets to cold wallets, effectively reducing the transmission of systemic risks.