Lighter Trading Volume Surge Analysis: New Leader or Price Manipulation Feast?
TL;DR
Lighter did indeed lead in trading volume in late November, with a peak 24-hour volume of $71.6 billion, but data shows this was primarily driven by rewards rather than organic growth. While its zero fees and ZK technology provide a competitive advantage, the rapid 85% drop and the unusual volume/open interest ratio (4.4x) suggest artificial inflation.
Core Data Analysis
Transaction volume comparison
Lighter vs. Competitors (November 20-28)
| protocol | 24-hour trading volume | 7-day trading volume | 30-day trading volume | Open interest | TVL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lighter | $7.16B | $65.92B | $300.19B | $1.63B | $1.20B |
| Hyperliquid | $6.23B | $63.41B | $259.60B | $6.31B | $4.32B |
| Aster | $5.70B | $63.70B | $289.11B | $2.15B | $1.34B |
Lighter reached a single-day peak of $71.6 billion on November 24, briefly surpassing Hyperliquid's $62.3 billion.
Analysis of Open Interest and Total Value Added (TVL)
Key Indicator Comparison
- Lighter TVL : Remained stable at $1.20B during the period, with no significant net inflow of funds.
- Open interest fluctuations : surged from $1.56B to a peak of $16.3B, then quickly fell back to $1.74B.
- Volume/Open Interest Ratio : Peaked at 4.4x, far exceeding the organic level of 2-3x.
This pattern of stable TVL but wildly fluctuating trading volume and open interest strongly suggests short-term speculation and profiteering.
Analysis of the Points-Based Looting System
Season 2 Incentive Mechanism
- Points Allocation : 200,000 points are awarded weekly to retail traders based on volume, open interest, funding costs, liquidation, and PnL.
- Weighting mechanism : Major cryptocurrencies such as BTC receive higher scores, and high-quality trading accounts enjoy weighted rewards . (docs.lighter.xyz)
- Anti-fraud measures : Allows a maximum of 10 accounts per user, but strictly combats Sybil attacks and self-trading. (docs.lighter.xyz)
Evidence of the impact of petting
High-efficiency hair-gathering strategy
- Delta Neutral Strategy : Users achieve $8M+ in trading volume with a $100 deposit, leveraging the zero-fee feature of x.com.
- Multi-wallet rotation : Rotate between platforms such as Lighter, Paradex, and EdgeX to maximize points earnings . x.com
- Low-competition environment : Points value exceeds transaction costs, and over-the-counter valuation is bullish (x.com).
Community sentiment analysis
Supporting viewpoints
- Technological Innovation : ZK proofs and custom rollup designs have gained recognition from KOLs such as Ryan Adams, who believe they represent a breakthrough in L2 scaling . (x.com)
- Zero-fee model : Lowering the entry barrier and expanding the perpetual trading user base . x.com
- Institutional support : Follow-on investment from top VCs such as a16z and Founders Fund; completed a $68MB funding round in November . x.com
dissenting voices
- Primarily focused on organic farming : Several analysts point out that the majority of sales volume comes from points-based farms rather than organic farming.com .
- Founder Controversy : Public feud with Hyperliquid criticized as distracting from product focus.x.com
- Persistent Concerns : A surge in trading volume amid stable open interest suggests short-term positioning rather than sustained capital inflows.
Technical Analysis
Trading volume model
Abnormal signal identification
- Peak Concentration : The BTC/USDC trading pair accounts for 67% of the total trading volume, indicating a risk of manipulation.
- Rapid decline : 85% of the market plunged without any corresponding market event, indicating signs of artificial price manipulation.
- Support levels : $8-10B. Daily trading volume is the organic baseline; levels above $15B require confirmation from open interest.
Compared to competitors, all major Perp DEXs experienced a 40%+ surge followed by a decline during the same period, but Lighter exhibited the greatest volatility (peak-to-valley ratio of 7.7x).
in conclusion
Lighter's leading trading volume reflects more of a frenzy of price manipulation than the emergence of a new market leader.
- Short-term dominance : While it did achieve the highest trading volume during specific periods, this performance was not sustainable.
- The main driving forces behind profit-taking are the points system, zero transaction fees, and highly efficient strategies.
- Technological Potential : ZK technology and zero transaction fees provide a long-term competitive advantage.
- Risk warning : Over-reliance on incentives may lead to a decline in trading volume; post-TGE performance should be monitored.
Investment Recommendation : While Lighter boasts impressive technical capabilities, current trading volume largely reflects the hype surrounding freebies. We suggest paying attention to the points-to-currency conversion rate, the timing of TGE (Tencent's Exchange Points) events, and organic trading volume performance after the incentive program ends.