Monad (MON) Short Analysis: Price Movement Under Continued Pressure from Large Players

Key conclusions

MON is indeed facing short pressure from large investors, but the decline in spot ATH is approximately 50% (not 80%). Both technical and sentiment indicators point to a bear market, and there is a risk of further decline in the short term.

Price drop verification

Actual decline data

Note : The 80% drop mentioned by the user may refer to an unconfirmed high of $0.107 in the futures market. Based on the confirmed spot ATH price, the actual drop is approximately 50%.

Analysis of evidence of short by large investors

Derivatives Market Data

• Position bias : Smart funds are 93% short, with short positions totaling $23.7M vs. long positions totaling $16M. (x.com)
• Total open interest : $112 million, down 20.24% in the last 24 hours.
• Funding rates : Binance 0.0226%, Bybit 0.01% (positive values ​​indicate that the long position is paying the short position).

Key short activities

• Wintermute Short : Market makers borrow MON tokens from the project team for a year specifically to shortx.com.
• Smart Money Sell-Off : $6.6M Smart Money sold off in late November. MONx.com
• Large individual traders : Traders publicly share their short positions and set low liquidation levels (x.com).

Technical Analysis: Signals of Further Decline

Multi-timeframe technical indicators

Key price level analysis

• Near-term support : $0.0248 (lower Bollinger Band)
• Strong support level : $0.0229 (lower Bollinger Band on the daily chart)
• Resistance levels : $0.0272 (1-hour EMA12), $0.0303 (4-hour EMA12)

Liquidation risk

There is a concentrated area of ​​long liquidation below the current price level, with a cumulative exposure of $2.07 million at the $0.0218 level.

Market Sentiment: Bear Market Dominant

KOL opinion analysis

Arthur Hayes's change of stance :

• Initial long: anticipating a bull market uptrend (x.com)
• Sharp reversal to short: Claiming MON is "worthless" and predicting it will go to zero . x.com
• Long-term warning: Due to VC structure and locked-up supply, a potential 99% plunge is possible . x.com

Community Response

• Market makers criticize : The community condemns Wintertermute's short behavior as unethical and demands a transparent audit of x.com.
• Overall sentiment : Bearish consensus dominates, with token unlocking, high valuations, and large short sellers short as driving factors for continued decline . (x.com)

On-chain data: Selling pressure confirmed

Supply dynamics

• Distribution supply : 10.83 billion / 100 billion total supply (10.8%)
• Instant sell-off : 30% of airdrop recipients can sell immediately.
• Future unlocking : No unlocking before November 2026; there is a risk of unlocking 16.8 billion tokens thereafter.

Exchange liquidity

• 24-hour trading volume : $438 million
• Major exchanges : Upbit (62% KRW trading), Coinbase leads.
• Net inflow : High trading volume indicates a continued inflow into exchanges.

Future trend prediction

Downside risk factors

1. Technical bear market : All timeframes show a bear market trend.
2. Large investors short : Smart funds maintain 93% short positions.
3. Oversupply : Low circulation rate (10.8%) but ecosystem allocation is unlocked.
4. Sentiment deteriorates : KOLs turn bearish, community criticizes market makers for manipulation.

Key support test

• Short-term : A break below the $0.0248 support level will accelerate the decline to $0.0229.
• Medium term : Continued break below support could trigger a liquidation waterfall effect.
• Long term : Limited pressure before large-scale unlocking in November 2026

Summarize

MON is indeed facing continued short by large investors, and the technical outlook is bearish across the board, with a high probability of further declines in the short term. The key support level to watch is $0.0248; a break below this level would target $0.0229. Investors should trade cautiously and wait for a clear bottoming signal.