MON bottoming out and rebound analysis: FDV is approaching 3 billion, have the short sellers taken profits?

Key conclusions

MON did indeed experience a short-term bottoming out and rebound, rising from a historical low of $0.022 to $0.0294 (+24.58% 24h), with FDV approaching $2.94B again. Evidence of some short-selling profit-taking exists but is not complete—24h short liquidation reached $1.23M, slightly higher than long liquidation, with some traders closing positions, but open interest still increased by 18.37% and funding rates are positive, indicating continued tug-of-war between bulls and bears.

Price Rebound Analysis

Short-term rebound confirmed

Current Price Performance : As of 06:54 UTC on December 2, 2025, the MON price was $0.029376, a 24-hour increase of +24.58%, rebounding from an early morning low of $0.022587 to a high of $0.030476. This is the first significant rebound since hitting an all-time low of $0.022010 on November 25. app.monprotocol.ai

Market capitalization and FDV :

• Market capitalization : $317.74M (ranked #126)
• FDV : $2.94B (Total supply 100B, circulation 10.83B MON)
• Circulation rate : 10.83%

FDV has rebounded from a low of around $2.2B to $2.94B, once again approaching the $3B mark. (coinmarketcap)

rebound background

Price History : MON experienced significant volatility after its mainnet launch (November 24th)—surging from a low of $0.0220 to an all-time high of $0.0488 (November 27th), before retracing to $0.0328 (November 30th). It rebounded from $0.0269 on December 1st-2nd to its current level, with 24-hour trading volume reaching $470-541 million. (coinmarketcap )

Catalyst : The rebound was linked to increased trading volume on the Hyperliquid/South Korean market, coupled with continued growth in mainnet metrics (trading volume +355% to 8.9 million, TVL reaching $150 million). Discussions within the crypto.news community suggest that the token's fundamental utility as a gas token supported the rebound. x.com

Technical Analysis

Multi-timeframe signals

Key price levels :

• Support levels : $0.0239 (1-day lower Bollinger Band), $0.0268 (1-hour SMA50)
• Resistance levels : $0.0313 (1-hour Bollinger Band upper band), $0.0350 (4-hour SMA50), $0.0372 (1-day Bollinger Band middle band)

The price has rebounded from the $0.0239 support zone, but it is still in a downward channel. A break above $0.0372 is needed to confirm a trend reversal.

Derivatives Market and Air Force Movements

Positions and funding rates

Changes in open interest : Total open interest is $126.7M, up 18.37% in 24 hours, indicating increased participation. All major exchanges saw growth (Binance +20.89%, Bybit +7.8%, Hyperliquid +24.15%), indicating an intensified battle between bulls and bears rather than one-sided liquidation.

Funding rates : Positive values ​​dominate (Binance 0.005%, Bybit 0.01%, Hyperliquid 0.00125%), meaning longs are paying shorts, reflecting excessive leverage by longs rather than shorts exiting. This limits upside potential as the market remains long.

Liquidation data analysis

24-hour settlement status :

• Short liquidation : $1.23M
• Long position liquidation : $1.01M
• Total liquidation : $2.24M

Short liquidation slightly outpaced long liquidation, providing some evidence of profit-taking by the bears. However, the gap is small (only $0.22M), and the open interest is increasing in tandem, suggesting that new short sellers may be entering the market to replace those who are closing out their positions.

Liquidation Risk Zone :

• Downside risk : Cumulative long positions liquidated below $0.0252 amounted to $3.98M (risk of support level being broken).
• Upside risk : Cumulative short covering above $0.0318 amounts to $2.79 million (moderate potential for short squeeze).

Social Emotions and KOL Perspectives

Air Force Profit Signs

Individual traders confirmed closing short positions near key support levels: "Short positions were closed at the support level, achieving the downside target." The x.com community observed influencers coordinating short to trigger panic selling, but prices subsequently recovered. x.com

Continued bearishness vs. bullish divergence

Some traders who were previously bearish switched to long, raising questions within the community about the consistency of their stance. (x.com)

Valuation Controversy Focus

High FDV/Low Circulating Supply : A circulating supply of 10.83% and a $2.94B FDV have raised questions—the pressure to unlock VC and public sale tokens is high, and the pricing is too high compared to competitors like $SEI. However , supporters argue that the low FDV strategy demonstrates a long-term commitment and avoids the stigma of early cash- out .

in conclusion

Rebound confirmed : MON has indeed rebounded 24.58% from its historical low of $0.022 to $0.0294, and FDV has recovered to $2.94B, approaching $3B. Short-term technicals show a bullish signal on the 1-hour chart, but the 4-hour/1-day charts are still in a downtrend, and a break above the $0.0372 resistance level is needed to confirm a reversal.

Limited evidence suggests that the Air Force has taken profits :

• ✅Supporting evidence : 24-hour short liquidation of $1.23M > long liquidation of $1.01M, individual traders closing positions.
• ❌Evidence against : Open interest increased by 18.37%, positive funding rates indicate that long positions are being paid for, suggesting new short positions may be entering the market.

Overall assessment : While some short sellers have taken profits, they haven't fully retreated. Increased open interest and positive expense ratios indicate continued tug-of-war between bulls and bears; while some early short positions are being closed, new short sellers may be entering at higher levels. The $0.0239 support and $0.0372 resistance will determine the subsequent trend—a break below support could trigger a $3.98M long liquidation, while a break above resistance could trigger a $2.79M short squeeze.