Bitcoin breaks $90,000: Bull market return or short-term rebound?
TL;DR
Bitcoin surged 5.4% on December 2nd (UTC time), returning to $90,922, with trading volume soaring to $78 billion. Technically, it's currently overbought but the trend is upward. On-chain data reveals continued institutional accumulation and exchange reserves hitting multi-year lows. Support comes from expectations of an 87% probability of a Fed rate cut and inflows from Wall Street, but caution is warranted regarding the risk of overbought 1-hour RSI and volume divergence.
Core Analysis
Price performance confirmed
| index | data | Time (UTC) | Increase |
|---|---|---|---|
| Intraday low | $86,259 | December 2nd 01:00 | - |
| Intraday high | $90,922 | December 2nd 16:00 | +5.4% |
| Opening price | $86,304 | December 2nd 01:00 | - |
| 24-hour trading volume | $78B | December 2 | Strongest in the month |
Bitcoin rebounded strongly from its weekend low of $83,989, rising from $86,259 to $90,922 UTC on December 2nd, a 5.4% single-day increase. On CoinGecko , 24-hour trading volume reached $78 billion, and cross-validation with CoinGecko and CoinMarketCap shows a range of $74.7 billion to $80.1 billion, making it one of the strongest trading days in recent months. (bitcoinmagazine)
Market drivers :
- Fed Rate Cut Expectations : The ISM Manufacturing PMI of 48.2 (November data) has boosted the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the FOMC in December to 87%, supporting a rebound in risk assets. (fxleaders)
- Institutional inflows : CoinShares data shows a weekly institutional inflow of $1.06 billion, and Vanguard opened its BTC ETF to 50 million clients on December 2nd. bitcoinmagazine
- Crypto markets rebounded across the board : ETH rose 9%, XRP/SOL/DOGE rose 7-10%, and overall market sentiment improved. (Coindesk)
Technical Analysis
Trend Structure :
- 1-hour chart : The price broke through the upper Bollinger Band ($89,858), and held above the EMA12 ($88,278) and EMA26 ($87,602). The MACD histogram expanded to 479.97, indicating strong upward momentum.
- 4-hour chart : The price is between the middle Bollinger Band ($88,811) and the upper Bollinger Band ($93,584), and the MACD has turned positive (239.08), indicating a potential breakout at a larger level.
Key technology position :
| level | support level | resistance level |
|---|---|---|
| Recently | $89,133 (1h SMA200) | $93,584 (4h Bollinger Band upper rail) |
| Mid-term | $87,359 (1h Bollinger Middle Band) | $96,566 (4h SMA200) |
Overbought signal warning :
- The 1-hour RSI reached 71.96, entering overbought territory, increasing the risk of a short-term pullback.
- The 4-hour RSI remains neutral at 57.35, with no signs of extreme overheating.
- The OBV indicator is declining on both the 1-hour (-8,936) and 4-hour (-111,770) charts, indicating that trading volume has not fully confirmed the price increase, and there is a divergence between volume and price.
Derivatives Market :
- Total open interest is $58.32 billion, up 1.91% in the last 24 hours, indicating increased participation.
- Binance funding rate +0.0043% (long position fee), Bybit funding rate -0.0052% (short position fee), leverage is relatively balanced.
- The heatmap shows that bullish momentum is building below $89,000, while bearish momentum is concentrated above $93,000.
On-chain data analysis
Exchange reserves at historic lows :
- BTC exchange reserves have fallen to approximately 2.19 million, a multi-year low, indicating continued net outflows and supply shortages. (tradingview)
- In 2025, there was a net outflow of over 425,000 BTC, a 20-25% decrease from the initial reserve of approximately 3 million BTC to around 2.3 million BTC. (x.com)
Whale accumulation signal :
- Around December 2nd, BitGo transferred 2,612 BTC (worth approximately $231M) to 10 new wallets, averaging 261 BTC per wallet per day, suspected to be institutional off-exchange accumulation. (blockchain.news)
- The second week of November whale accumulate over 45,000 BTC, marking the second-largest weekly accumulation in 2025. (x.com)
Cash holdings distribution (data from December 2nd) :
| Cash holding range | Number of addresses | BTC quantity | percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100-1,000 BTC | 17,556 | 5,136,234 | 25.74% |
| 1,000-10,000 BTC | 1,919 | 4,187,904 | 20.99% |
| 10,000-100,000 BTC | 88 | 2,257,996 | 11.32% |
| 100,000-1,000,000 BTC | 4 | 666,305 | 3.34% |
From December 1st to 2nd, the number of addresses holding 100-1,000 BTC decreased slightly (17,566 → 17,556), and the total amount of BTC decreased slightly (5,138,754 → 5,136,234), indicating a minor redistribution among medium-sized holders. The supply from long-term holders (>155 days) remained at 70-75% of the circulating supply, with no significant change observed on December 2nd. (bitinfocharts )
Market sentiment analysis
Community response :
- Historical energy oscillation indicators have bottomed out and rebounded, consistent with past bull market start patterns, leading the community to cautiously bullishly. (x.com)
- The copper-gold ratio monthly RSI has rebounded from its lows, a pattern historically seen as a precursor to Bitcoin bull runs, and the current trajectory is similar. (x.com)
- Users emphasized post-liquidation liquidity rebuilding and testing of potential support levels, with sentiment leaning towards continued volatility. (x.com)
KOL's perspective :
| People/Organizations | Opinion | Based on quality |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Saylor's camp | Never sell BTC, predicting a higher price followed by a pullback. | High (based on enterprise inventory strategy) |
| Analyst AO | Oscillators are giving bullish signals, indicating an upward trend is building momentum. | (Technical Pattern Recognition) |
| Community individual households | Patience is key; family stories accumulate and are passed down. | Low (emotional narrative) |
Saylor and MicroStrategy maintained their "no-sell" stance, with the community defending them and refuting bearish views. Analysts at x.com emphasized increased institutional confidence, with ETF inflows and reserve growth supporting demand.
Narrative theme :
- Building Institutional Confidence : ETF Inflows and Reserve Growth Seen as Evidence of Sustainable Demand
- Strategic Reserves Proposal : Government Accumulation Plan Linked to Long-Term Price Stability Expectations (x.com)
- Volatility Narrative : Liquidation cascade and support breakout, further testing expected to confirm the trend . (x.com)
in conclusion
Short-term assessment : Bitcoin's 5.4% rebound on December 2nd was driven by expectations of a Fed rate cut, institutional inflows, and supply tightening. The technical indicators confirm the breakout, but the overbought 1-hour RSI and OBV divergence suggest a short-term pullback risk. Key support levels of $89,133 and $87,359 need to be held.
Mid-term Outlook : On-chain data shows a structurally bullish outlook – exchange reserves are at multi-year lows, whale continue to accumulate, the proportion of long-term holders remains stable, and the potential for supply shocks is increasing. If the price stabilizes above $90,000 and breaks through the 4-hour Bollinger Band upper line at $93,584, a larger-scale upward trend will be confirmed.
Probability of a bull market resurgence : The current situation resembles a temporary rebound rather than a "rapid return" to a bull market. Further observation is needed regarding: ① the outcome of the Fed's December 9-10 FOMC meeting; ② a breakout of the $93,000-$96,000 resistance zone; and ③ maintaining leverage balance in derivatives. Historical patterns support the assumption of a continued bull market, but confirmation over several weeks is needed rather than days.