Trump announces timeline for Fed Chair, cryptocurrency market volatility window approaches.

TL;DR

Trump confirmed on December 1, 2025, that he had completed the selection process for Federal Reserve Chairman, with the official announcement postponed to early 2026 (originally scheduled for the end of 2025). The market is focusing on Kevin Hassett's (77-79% chance of winning) dovish stance and crypto-friendly background. The BTC/ETH technical chart shows an expanding trend of high volatility (daily fluctuation of 43.2%/57.4%), with the derivatives market accumulating liquidation risk of BTC $1.02B (longs) + $541M (shorts) and ETH $607M (longs) + $341M (shorts). Historically, BTC saw a 100% increase in the six months following the end of QT in 2019. The current liquidity shift suggests short-term volatility and medium-term upside potential.

Core Policy Analysis

Timeline and Candidate Updates

Trump confirmed his decision on the Federal Reserve Chair nominee between December 1-2, 2025, but the official announcement has been postponed from the end of 2025 to the beginning of 2026 (Polwell's term ends on May 15, 2026). Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has completed final interviews with the shortlisted candidates, and the Senate confirmation process is expected to take place between January and April 2026.

Candidate probability distribution (as of December 1, 2025, UTC):

Note: Scott Bessent has been explicitly excluded by Trump.

Hassett’s percentage has risen rapidly from 54% since mid-November 2025 to the current 77-79%, and Bloomberg reports that he has become the top choice for Trump’s allies. Phemex data shows that the crypto community’s betting rate is 52-56%.

Shift in interest rate policy expectations

Trump publicly criticized Powell for the slow pace of interest rate cuts, emphasizing that the new chairman should prioritize "affordability" (reducing loan/mortgage costs). Hassett's dovish stance is clear:

• Rate cut expectations : The market prices an 87.6% probability of a 25bp rate cut in December 2025; if Hassett takes office, he will push for a more aggressive easing path.
• Policy framework reform : simplify policy decision-making processes and reduce the voting power of regional Federal Reserve presidents (to balance the hawkish forces in the 2026 FOMC rotation).
• Liquidity Environment : QT will officially end on December 1, 2025, with monthly liquidity injections turning to $95B , the largest shift since 2019.

Direct impact mechanism of the crypto market

Hassett's connections to the crypto industry form the core positive logic:

1. Institutional Background : He held over $1 million in shares while serving as an advisor to Coinbase and led policy development for the White House Digital Asset Task Force.
2. Liquidity transmission : Dovish rate cut expectations → weaker dollar + lower real yields → increased attractiveness of risk assets (including crypto).
3. Regulatory tone : Hassett favors innovation over inflation control, potentially perpetuating Trump's "crypto-friendly" political narrative.

Market consensus suggests that a dovish nomination will boost crypto valuations through a two-pronged approach of lower interest rates and accelerated institutional adoption , leading to a significant increase in volatility expectations before and after the announcement.

Market sentiment and community response

KOLs have differing opinions.

Bullish camp (dominant narrative) :

• @BritishHodl : Emphasizing Hassett's Coinbase ties and dovish stance to hedge against market pessimism, he believes that a loose monetary environment directly benefits crypto.
• @Swan : Positioning Hassett's historical support for Bitcoin aligns with Trump's "growth first" and "fiscal deficit tolerance" policies.
• @elliotrades : Predicts that a stimulus cycle will begin after a deflation control strategy before the midterm elections, and that this is a crypto-positioned for recovery.

Cautious/Bearish Sentiment :

• @StealthQE4 : Warning that persistent inflation may lead to higher interest rates rather than the rate cuts expected by the market, and there is a risk that expectations and reality may reverse.
• Some forum discussions focused on the possibility that a decline in the Federal Reserve's independence could drive up term premiums, thereby suppressing speculative assets.

Narrative Theme Mapping

Overall sentiment on Twitter/X is neutral to optimistic (60-70% of discussions are positive), but risk aversion is evident in the short-term volatility window (BTC fell below the $86k-90k range on December 1-2, with a 24-hour drop of 5-7%).

Technical Analysis and Volatility

BTC Multi-Period Volatility Expansion

Current price : $91,464 (December 2, 2025 UTC)

Bollinger Bands (20 periods, 2 standard deviations) :

• 1-hour chart : Upper band $90,751, Middle band $87,633, Lower band $84,515, Bandwidth 7.1% (Price broke through the upper band, not under pressure).
• 4-hour timeframe : Upper band $93,741, Middle band $88,870, Lower band $83,999, Bandwidth 11.0% (Under expansion)
• Daily chart : Upper Bollinger Band $98,006, Middle Bollinger Band $90,575, Lower Bollinger Band $83,145, Bandwidth 16.4% (widest, confirming trend strength)

Historical volatility (10 periods) :

• 1-hour chart: 11.7% | 4-hour chart: 22.0% | Daily chart: 43.2% (Approaching extreme levels of the Crypto Fear/Greed Index)

ATR (14-period) expected amplitude :

• 1-hour chart: ±$869 | 4-hour chart: ±$1,497 | Daily chart: ±$3,939

Technical signal : There is no Bollinger squeeze (bandwidth >7%), but instead the trend is expanding, indicating that the current stage is the release of momentum rather than the accumulation stage. With the catalyst of news, the daily amplitude may exceed $4,000.

ETH's high volatility characteristics

Current price : $3,015 (December 2, 2025 UTC)

Bollinger Bands :

• 1 hour: Bandwidth 10.2%, price breaks through upper limit $2,987
• 4 hours: Bandwidth 14.3%, Mid-rail $2,915
• Daily chart : Bandwidth 17.4%, Upper band $3,247, Lower band $2,727

Historical volatility (10 periods) :

• 1-hour chart: 19.1% | 4-hour chart: 36.3% | Daily chart: 57.4% (Exceeds BTC, indicating higher sensitivity)

ATR (14 cycles) :

• 1-hour chart: ±$35 | 4-hour chart: ±$62 | Daily chart: ±$190

Comparative analysis : ETH volatility is higher than BTC across all timeframes (14.2 percentage points higher on the daily chart), and bandwidth expansion is more pronounced (17.4% on the daily chart vs. 16.4% for BTC), suggesting a potentially more dramatic reaction to news.

Derivatives Market Risk Map

BTC holdings and funding rates

Open Interest (OI) : Total $59.2 billion , up 3.38% in the last 24 hours.

• Binance: $11.2B (+5.44% 24h)
• Bybit: $6.1B (+2.01% 24h)
• 1-hour change: +0.52% (short-term stabilization)

Funding fees (8-hour settlement) :

• Binance: +0.0065% (Long positions pay short positions)
• Bybit: -0.0036% (Short pays long)
• Overall, the outlook is neutral to slightly bullish . With the next settlement approximately 2 hours later (UTC), continued positive rates may limit further upward movement.

Asymmetric liquidation risks :

With a long-short ratio of approximately 2:1 , the long side is more exposed. Hassett's unexpected failure to be elected or his hawkish stance could trigger a rapid drop to the $88k-89k support level.

Signals of high growth in ETH derivatives

Open Interest (OI) : Total $36.5B , up 6.76% in 24 hours (more than double the growth rate of BTC).

• Binance: $7.6B (+10.82% 24h)
• OKX: $2.3B (+11.25% 24h)
• 1-hour change: -0.09% (minor pullback)

Funding fees (8-hour settlement) :

• Binance: +0.0067% (Multiple payments)
• Bybit: +0.0006% (Multiple payments)
• Overall, the outlook is bullish , with sustained positive expense ratios and high OI growth indicating the accumulation of leveraged long positions.

Liquidation risk equalization :

The long-short liquidation ratio is approximately 1.78:1, lower than BTC but still biased towards long positions. After the announcement, both directions of fluctuation may trigger large-scale liquidations (total risk exposure $948M).

Historical analogy: QT's cycle ended in 2019

Comparison of Liquidity Inflection Points

Analysts generally believe that the 2019-2020 cycle is the best analogy for the current situation: QT paused → BTC short-term consolidation (2-3 months) → 200-day moving average breakout → Altcoin' delayed breakout. The current BTC dominance rate of <60% suggests that Altcoin may repeat the performance of Q1 2020 (excess returns 1-2 months later than BTC).

Policy cycle differences

2019 : Technical easing led by Powell, without political controversy . 2025 : Personnel changes led by Trump, with added political premium and questions about the Fed's independence.

Risk factors: If Hassett is viewed as a "political appointment" rather than a "technocrat," the market may demand a higher term premium, partially offsetting the liquidity bonus.

Related token performance: Official TRUMP

Fundamental data

Price and Market Cap (December 2, 2025, UTC):

• Current price: $6.02
• 24-hour increase: +6.04% (coinciding with the timing of the positive news from Hassett)
• 7-day change: -2.73%
• Market capitalization: $1.2 billion
• 24-hour trading volume: $248M
• All-time high: $73.43 (January 19, 2025, currently -92%)

Token Economics :

• Total supply: 1 billion
• Circulation ratio: 38.6% (386 million coins)
• Locked funds being released: Continuously unlocking

Market linkage logic

The TRUMP token rose +6% in the 24 hours following the escalating rumors of Hassett's nomination, showing the following correlation:

1. Narrative Resonance : Trump's political influence → Federal Reserve personnel control → Expectations of easing policies → Increased value of the Trump meme
2. Liquidity Overflow : Short-term safe haven for mainstream cryptocurrencies (BTC/ETH) → Speculative allocation to high-risk meme tokens
3. Exchange support : Binance, Coinbase, and Bybit offer full coverage of spot and futures trading (10+ trading pairs), with ample liquidity.

Risk warning : The TRUMPP token YTD has fallen by -78%, making it a highly volatile meme asset that is severely decoupled from fundamentals. After Hassett's announcement, there may be "buy the rumor, sell the fact" selling pressure.

in conclusion

The nomination window for Trump as Federal Reserve Chairman (December 2, 2025 - early 2026) constitutes a key catalyst for volatility in the crypto market, with multi-dimensional data pointing to both increased short-term volatility and medium-term structural opportunities:

Short term (1-2 weeks) : Hassett's dovish expectations have been partially priced in (Kalshi 77%). The leveraged long positions in the BTC/ETH derivatives market have reached $1.63B/$948M. The risk of two-way liquidation before and after the news is released is extremely high. Technically, the daily ATR indicates a range of ±$4,000 for BTC and ±$190 for ETH.

Mid-term (March-June) : Historically, the QT cycle ended in 2019. The combination of a liquidity inflection point and a dovish Fed drove BTC to double in six months. The current monthly liquidity injection of $95 billion exceeds historical levels. If Hassett takes office and fulfills his promise to cut interest rates, risk assets will enter a policy honeymoon period before the 2026 midterm elections.

Risk factors : Questions about the Fed's independence may increase term premiums, partially offsetting liquidity benefits; an unexpected rebound in inflation will force hawks to shift their stance; geopolitical black swan events (tariff wars, debt ceiling) may disrupt the easing path.

Operational framework : Control leverage exposure within the volatility window (derivatives have high liquidation risk), wait for price discovery after the announcement, and favor "liquidity beneficiaries" (BTC-dominated + high-beta Altcoin) in the medium term. Pay attention to the confirmation of a breakout above the 200-day moving average (BTC around $85k, ETH around $2,800) as a signal of trend continuation.