Can ETH reach $12,000? In-depth analysis of Bitmine's increased holdings and Tom Lee's predictions.

TL;DR

Bitmine continues its large-scale accumulation of ETH to approximately 3.73 million (3% of the circulating supply), but Tom Lee has lowered his target price forecast from $12,000 to $7,000-$9,000 (January 2026). The current ETH price is $3,162, and the technical indicators show mixed signals. There is approximately a 40% probability of reaching $12,000 within 6-12 months, requiring a break above the key resistance level of $5,089 and sustained institutional accumulation. On-chain data shows strong accumulation signals (exchange reserves decreased by 3.4% in 30 days), but short-term liquidity pressures and excessive leverage pose risks.

Core Analysis

Bitmine holdings increase

Latest holdings data (as of December 5, 2025, UTC):

• Total holdings : 3,726,499 ETH (officially announced on November 30, 2025)
• Latest new holdings : 48,623 ETH (approximately $150 million, December 4th)
  • 18,345 ETH via BitGo
  • 30,278 ETH via Kraken
• Estimated current total supply : approximately 3,775,122 ETH
• Percentage of circulating supply : ~3.09% (target 5%, two-thirds achieved)
• Value of holdings : approximately US$11.78 billion (calculated at $3,162).

Acquisition pace (recent weekly data):

Strategic positioning :

• The "5% Alchemy" goal : Bitmine aims to accumulate 5% of the total ETH supply.
• Institutional endorsements : ARK/Cathie Wood, Founders Fund, Pantera, Kraken, DCG, Galaxy Digital
• Staking strategy : Plans to deploy the "Made in the USA Validator Network" (MAVAN) in early 2026.
• Strategic positioning : Positioning ETH as the "future of finance," betting on DeFi, tokenization, and institutional adoption.

On-chain verification limitations :

• The official wallet address was not disclosed.
• Arkham's listed entity value is 3.48 million ETH, which deviates from the reported data by approximately 8%.
• The discrepancy may stem from custodial holdings, incomplete labeling, or data lag.

Tom Lee's prediction revision

Latest forecast (late November to early December 2025):

• Short-term target : $7,000-$9,000 (by the end of January 2026)
• Mid-term warning : A pullback to $2,500 is possible before a rapid rebound.
• Long-term vision :
  • $22,000 (if it returns to the 2021 relative BTC valuation ratio)
  • $62,000 (Global Payments Track Supercycle Scenario)

Predicted evolution timeline :

Key arguments :

• Tokenization Catalyst : RWA tokenization to grow from $8.6 billion in the first half of 2025 to $25 billion.
• Stablecoins dominate : Annual transaction volume exceeds $50 trillion, with ETH serving as the primary settlement layer.
• Institutional adoption : Wall Street giants such as BlackRock and BlackRock participate in tokenization
• Network advantages : Strong developer community, 100% uptime, neutrality

Analysis of the reasons for the downward adjustment :

• The recent drop from $4,800 to below $3,000 is attributed to a systemic liquidation event.
• Tight market liquidity and excessive leverage lead to short-term pressure.
• The forecast has been revised from $12,000 to $7,000-$9,000, reflecting a pragmatic adjustment.

On-chain accumulated signals

Exchange Reserves Changes (30-day Trend):

• Total reserves : decreased from 17.13M ETH (November 6) to 16.55M ETH (December 4).
• Decrease : -3.4% (approximately 580,000 ETH flowed out of exchanges)
• Dollar value : decreased from $58.54B to $52.77B
• Interpretation : The continued decline in reserves indicates a long-term holding trend and tightening supply.

7-day net flow (recent data):

• Total net outflow : approximately -246,335 ETH
• Maximum single-day outflow : -187,307 ETH (November 28)
• Recent trends : December 4 (-6,463 ETH), December 3 (-30,628 ETH)
• Signal : Continued net outflows support a medium-term bullish outlook; selling pressure is easing.

Institutional holdings (as of December 5):

Internet health metrics (30-day data):

• Average daily transactions : 1.57 million (peak: 1.89 million)
• Average TPS : 18.1, stable throughput
• Average daily transaction fee : $0.42 (median $0.08)
• Staking validators : 962,399 (a 1% increase from November 5th)
• DeFi TVL : $69.8B (fluctuated between $65B and $77.5B from November 5th to December 5th)

Technical Analysis and Derivatives

Multi-timeframe technical indicators (as of 02:07 UTC, December 5):

Short-term signals (1 hour/4 hours):

• 1H RSI : 52.58 (neutral)
• 4H RSI : 62.04 (close to overbought)
• 4H MACD : Histogram +7.73 (bullish crossover)
• Bollinger Bands : Price is above the 4-hour middle band, near the upper band at $3,326.

Medium- to long-term signals (daily/weekly charts):

• Daily RSI : 50.84 (Neutral)
• Weekly RSI : 45.05 (Slightly bearish)
• Weekly MACD : Histogram -201.19 (Strongly bearish)
• Key resistance levels : $3,237 (daily upper trendline) → $5,089 (weekly upper trendline)

Support/resistance level analysis :

Derivatives Market Situation :

• Total open interest : $38.13 billion (24-hour -1.95%, signs of deleveraging)
• Binance position : $8.07B (-1.34%), funding rate +0.0058% (long position fee)
• Bybit holdings : $2.49B (-10.09%), funding rate +0.0054%
• 24-hour settlement : $85.94M (65% long positions at $55.79M, $30.15M short positions)

Liquidation Risk Map :

• Downside risk : Cumulative long liquidation of $652.80M at $3,048.70.
• Upside resistance : $3,266.30, where accumulated short covering amounted to $1.13 billion.
• Analysis : Positive funding rates coupled with a dominance of long liquidations indicate excessive leverage and a risk of mean reversion.

Technical path to break through $12,000 :

1. Short-term condition : A break above the $3,237 daily moving average resistance level confirms the presence of trading volume.
2. Medium-term target : The weekly EMA (12) crosses above $3,520, and the price recovers the $3,955 middle band.
3. Long-term requirements : Break through the upper trendline of $5,089 on the weekly chart, and maintain reserves stable below 16M ETH.
4. Probability assessment : Current technical convergence indicates a 40% probability of reaching $12,000 within 6-12 months, provided it does not fall below the key support level of $2,800.

Social sentiment analysis

Discussion of the $12,000 target :

• Early consensus : The community widely cites Tom Lee's year-end target of $10,000-$12,000.
• Revised understanding : Recent updates point to $7,000-$9,000 (early 2026), with $12,000 considered a medium- to long-term target.
• Skepticism : Some voices question the feasibility of the ambitious targets, pointing out that Bitmine has incurred losses exceeding $3.5 billion (average cost of approximately $3,997), and anticipating an initial pullback to $2,500.

Bullish narrative :

• Tokenization Revolution : RWA Tokenization Could Unlock Trillions of Dollars in Value
• Institutional Confidence : Bitmine's Counter-Trend Buying Shows Confidence in Fundamentals
• Network Upgrade : Fusaka Upgrade (Activated December 3rd) Improves scalability and security.
• Supercycle Theory : Strong developer community, 10-year uptime, preferred by neutral institutions.

Cautious viewpoint :

• Liquidity concerns : Liquidation events and losses since October have raised concerns about excessive leverage.
• Forecast revised downwards : from $12,000 to $7,000 reflects short-term market pressure.
• Historical reference : The strength of the rebound needs to be verified after stabilization; avoid premature optimism.

KOL Viewpoint Summary :

• Coin Bureau : Emphasizes revised $7,000 target for Lee and expectations of a faster recovery.
• CryptoGoos : Historical patterns point to $62,500 long-term potential.
• Christopher Perkins : Supporting the advantages of ETH relative to BTC (settlement layer, stablecoin supply)

in conclusion

Bitmine's current holdings status confirmed : The company has accumulated approximately 3.73 million ETH (about 3% of the circulating supply), and the recent accelerated purchases demonstrate its strong commitment. However, there are slight discrepancies between on-chain data and reports, which warrant attention.

Tom Lee's key revision to his forecast : The latest target is $7,000-$9,000 (January 2026), not the $12,000 mentioned by users. The $12,000 figure represents an earlier forecast or a long-term vision, and its probability of being achieved in the short term is low.

Technical Feasibility Assessment : The current price of $3,162 requires a 280% upside to reach $12,000. Technical indicators show mixed signals, with the weekly chart still bearish, but strong on-chain signals are accumulating. Based on technical convergence and the deleveraging trend, there is approximately a 40% probability of reaching $12,000 within 6-12 months, requiring a key catalyst.

Risks and opportunities coexist : continued institutional accumulation, declining exchange reserves, and the tokenization narrative constitute long-term positives, but short-term excessive leverage (long position liquidation risk of $652M), liquidity pressures, and downward revisions to forecasts reflect the necessity for caution. A pragmatic target should focus on the $7,000-$9,000 range, while $12,000 requires a longer period and a breakthrough catalyst for verification.