Can Bithumb listings guarantee profits? In-depth strategy analysis.
TL;DR
Based on historical data analysis, Bithumb's new coin listing strategy exhibits a high-return, high-risk characteristic: recently listed coins have seen an average 24-hour increase of 100-185%, but this is generally accompanied by a rapid pullback of 15-35%. Due to data collection time constraints (before listing), there is no actual post-listing performance verification for the SAPIEN listing case. On-chain data shows that SAPIEN has a high concentration risk, with 75% of its supply controlled by a single address, and extremely low DEX liquidity ($6,000), which does not meet the "guaranteed profit" characteristic.
Core Analysis
SAPIEN Case Study
Listing details :
- Listing time : 2025-12-05 08:00 UTC (17:00 Korean time)
- Trading pair : SAPIEN/KRW (Spot)
- Fee-free period : Until 01:00 UTC on December 8, 2025
Price performance before listing (as of 02:50 UTC on December 5, 2025):
- Current price : $0.1846
- 24-hour increase : +2.51%
- 7-day increase : +39.23%
- 30-day increase : +46.26%
- All-time high : $0.536429 (November 6, 2025, the day it was listed on Binance, now down 65%)
Key limitation : All collected data timestamps are earlier than 08:00 UTC when the token was listed, lacking actual price reaction data after listing , making it impossible to verify the actual performance of "rapidly rising by more than 30%".
Bithumb's Historical Cryptocurrency Performance Statistics
A comprehensive analysis of 12 representative coin listing cases from October to December 2025:
| Tokens | Listing Date | 24-hour highest increase | Performance on the 7th | ATH pullback | 24-hour trading volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOB | 2025-12-03 | +130% | Partial pullback | -part | $57M spot + $357M contract |
| XION | 2025-11-26 | +185% | +126% initial momentum | - | $52M (+297%) |
| Pieverse | 2025-11-24 | Reached ATH $0.714 | +43.19% | -30% | - |
| MON | 2025-11-24 | Reached ATH $0.0488 | -29.68% | -44% | - |
| MMT | 2025-11-04 | ATH $4.03 | - | -94% | - |
| TRUST | 2025-11-05 | Reached ATH $0.606 | - | -74% | - |
| IRYS | 2025-11-27 | ATH $0.0549 | -9.79% | -37% | - |
Key findings :
- Short-term explosive potential : Cases from September 12th recorded gains of over 50% within 24 hours, averaging 100-185%.
- High drawdown risk : Typical pullback is 15-35%, with extreme cases (MMT/TRUST) experiencing a 74-94% retracement from the peak.
- >20% success rate : Nearly 100% within 24 hours, but only +9.05% on average over 30 days.
- The Korean Won Effect : Bithumb often accounts for 20-25% of the global trading volume of new cryptocurrencies, driving initial surges.
In-depth analysis of risk factors
Market structural risks :
- Retail investor FOMO-driven : The Korean Won Direct Stock Connect lowers the entry barrier, but sentiment-driven factors are prone to reversals.
- Liquidity Trap : High initial trading volume masks insufficient selling depth, leading to severe slippage on large orders.
- Time-sensitive pressure : The optimal entry window is only 2-6 hours; missing it significantly increases the risk of chasing high prices.
Fundamental risks of the project :
- Token unlocking : There is concentrated unlocking pressure in 2026.
- VC valuation multiples : Compare with FDV of similar projects to avoid overvaluation traps.
- Narrative sustainability : Lack of catalysts to support the fading hype surrounding newly listed tokens.
On-chain data analysis
SAPIEN holder concentration (as of 2025-12-05):
| Ranking | Address type | Open interest | percentage | Value (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | whale | 750,000,000 | 75.00% | $101,483,833 |
| 4 | Binance Hot Wallet | 30,680,952 | 3.07% | $4,151,494 |
| 14 | Bitget Hot Wallet | 3,182,882 | 0.32% | $430,681 |
| 17 | Coinbase Hot Wallet | 2,677,336 | 0.27% | $362,275 |
Key warning :
- Extremely concentrated : The top 1 address controls 75% of the total supply, posing a huge risk of selling pressure.
- Limited inflows to exchanges : Bithumb wallet not appearing in the Top 20, initial deposit amounts unknown upon listing.
- DEX liquidity is scarce : Uniswap V3 WETH/SAPIEN pool has only about $6,000 in liquidity.
On-chain activities for Coin Listing Day (December 5, 2025, 00:00-01:00 UTC, before Coin Listing):
- Number of transfers: 497 (00:00) → 271 (01:00)
- No obvious abnormal inflows : No large transfers (>1 million tokens) to exchanges were observed.
- Data blind spot : On-chain activity data missing after UTC listing at 08:00
Social sentiment analysis
Strategy consensus assessment :
Supporting arguments :
- South Korean retail investors reduced conversion costs by trading directly with KRW, driving rapid volume growth.
- Simplifying the access mechanism makes early positioning easier to implement.
- Regional kinetic energy does indeed exist within a short time window.
Argument against :
- Unstable sources of income : Industry consensus views it as a "high-risk speculative strategy" rather than a sustainable profit model.
- Common 15-35% pullback : Profit-taking is common after the initial pump.
- Fundamental Dependence : Projects lacking substantial support are difficult to sustain after the initial hype fades.
Influencer perspectives :
- Analysts emphasize that Bithumb is driving regional momentum, but long-term performance depends on the project's fundamentals.
- It is recommended to use limit orders to manage the volatility of newly listed coins and avoid chasing high prices.
- Regulatory compliance and technical failures (during periods of high activity) are additional risk variables.
Data quality note : As of 2025-12-05 UTC, no high-quality Twitter content was found that met the thresholds for high engagement and substance; external sources indicate a coexistence of short-term optimism and sustainability warnings.
in conclusion
Bithumb's listing strategy is characterized as high-frequency, short-term speculative opportunities, rather than a "sure-win" strategy. Historical data shows that 100-185% explosive growth within 24 hours is accompanied by a 15-94% drawdown risk, and success relies on precise timing and strict risk control.
SAPIEN's specific risks : Its extremely centralized structure, with 75% of its supply concentrated in a single address, combined with very low DEX liquidity ($6,000) and a lack of real-world post-listing performance data, makes it a highly uncertain case. Historically, ATH has retraced 65% from $0.536 to the current $0.1846, indicating that the previous listing hype was unsustainable.
Operation suggestion framework :
- ✅Feasible : Use a small position (<5% of total capital) to capture short-term fluctuations, setting a take-profit of 20-30% and a stop-loss of 10-15%.
- ⚠️Warning : Avoid chasing high prices (more than 2 hours after listing), and monitor for large on-chain transfer signals.
- ❌Taboos : Over-leveraging, ignoring fundamentals, and relying on short-term strategies as a stable source of income.
The narrative of "making a fortune by closely monitoring new listings" has been disproven by data: although short-term opportunities exist, systemic risks (concentration, drawdowns, liquidity) make it essentially a high-risk gamble rather than a stable-return strategy.