XNY's sharp drop and rebound, and the battle between bulls and bears: an analysis.
TL;DR
XNY bottomed out at $0.00446 on the evening of December 4th and rebounded strongly to a high of $0.00812 (+82%) in the early morning of December 5th, currently priced at $0.00739. The supply is extremely concentrated, with the top 10 holders controlling 89.61% of the total supply, and a single address holding 75%. The derivatives market saw a 24-hour surge in open interest, increasing by 283% to $26.9 million, with short liquidations ($2.96 million) exceeding long liquidations ($2.38 million), indicating that short liquidations drove the rebound. The current long/short ratio is close to 1:1, with key liquidation levels: longs at $0.00659 ($1.97 million risk), shorts at $0.00801 ($2.44 million risk). Technically, the 4-hour RSI reached 69.42, nearing overbought territory, and volatility remains high, indicating intense competition between bulls and bears, but a lack of discussion on social media.
Price fluctuation analysis
Timeline of Plunge and Rebound
| Time (UTC) | Price Action | amplitude | Key data |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/4 22:00 | Bottoming out | Low point $0.004463 | -3.5% from the previous day |
| 12/4 23:00 | Initial rebound | +2.9% to $0.004595 | Starting to stabilize |
| 12/5 00:00-04:00 | Strong upward movement | High point $0.008120 | From the low point +82% |
| 12/5 05:00 | Callback | Low point $0.006034 | -25.7% |
| 12/5 12:00 | Current price | $0.007387 | 24 hours +61.83% |
Trading volume anomaly : 24-hour trading volume reached $59.16 million, a surge of more than 10 times compared to the usual $1.5-5 million. The main sources included Gate.io spot trading of $13.93 million and PancakeSwap V3 trading of $20.2 million, indicating a coordinated increase in trading volume across DEX and CEX.
Market data :
- Current market capitalization : $18.29 million (circulating supply: 2.5 billion tokens)
- Fully diluted valuation : $73.18 million (total supply 10 billion).
- Major exchanges : Binance Futures (launched on October 7, 2025), Bybit Futures (launched on August 13, 2025), Gate.io, MEXC
Chip Concentration Analysis
Extremely unbalanced distribution of holders
| Holder type | percentage | Quantity/Address | feature |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top 1 (Suspected vault) | 75.00% | 0x6e0bad...bed395 | Untagged wallet, no recent transfers. |
| Top 10 Total | 89.61% | 10 addresses | Includes exchanges + whale |
| Top 25 Total | 92.39% | 25 addresses | Gini coefficient > 0.95 (extreme concentration) |
Identification of primary holders :
- Exchange wallets : KuCoin hot wallet (2.30%, ranked 4th), Gate.io hot wallet (1.61%, ranked 5th), Binance proxy wallet (1.61%, ranked 6th), MEXC hot wallet (0.60%, ranked 11th)
- Whale addresses : Ranked 2nd (administrator address) (3.11%), Ranked 3rd (unmarked address) (2.36%)
- Protocol Contract : PancakeSwap V3 Pool (1.26%, ranked 7th)
Recent Chip Flow
Key transaction event (December 5th) :
- Gate.io's hot wallet transferred 236,061,395.75 XNY (2.36% of the total supply) to the third- whale(
0xc882b1...984f071), indicating that large investors are accumulating tokens on the exchange. - The top-ranked vault address (75% control) had no outflows on December 4-5, indicating stable concentration.
- On November 24th, the second-ranked administrator address received 180 million XNY, suspected to be a continuous distribution by the team/vault.
Conclusion : Tokens are flowing from exchanges to whale, further exacerbating the concentration. The top 10 addresses control nearly 90% of the supply, resulting in highly concentrated liquidity.
Derivatives Market Analysis
Explosive growth in holdings
24-hour open interest changes show fierce battle between bulls and bears:
| Exchange | Open Interest (USD) | 24-hour changes | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Binance | $9.5 million | +521.13% | 🔴 New long positions surge |
| Bybit | $2.57 million | +101.44% | 🟡 Significant growth |
| Gate.io | $1.87 million | +299.50% | 🔴 Significant expansion |
| total | $26.9 million | +283.47% | Extremely active |
Funding Fee Analysis :
- Binance: +0.005% (Long payout, slight bullish advantage)
- Bybit: -0.0037% (Short payment, slight short-selling advantage)
- Gate.io: -0.0024% (Short-term payment)
- Overall assessment : Funding rates are mixed and close to equilibrium, indicating a balance between bulls and bears.
Liquidation data analysis
Total liquidation in 24 hours : $5.34 million (Shorts $2.96 million vs. Longs $2.38 million, with shorts accounting for 55%)
| Exchange | Multiple liquidations | Short selling | Short sellers are in control |
|---|---|---|---|
| Binance | $1.18 million | $1.61 million | ✓ |
| Bybit | $510,000 | $660,000 | ✓ |
| Gate.io | $540,000 | $620,000 | ✓ |
Liquidation Risk Map :
- Downside risk : A price drop below $0.00659 would trigger the liquidation of a total of $1.97 million long positions, potentially leading to a chain reaction of margin calls.
- Upside risk : After the price broke through $0.00725, the cumulative short position liquidation volume rose to $2.44 million (peaking at $0.00801), indicating a high risk of a short squeeze.
- Long/short ratio : Binance 0.9873, Bybit 1.0145, Gate.io 0.9960, close to 1:1, indicating a balanced but fragile position on both sides.
Conclusion : During the rebound, a large number of short positions were liquidated ($2.96 million), driving the price up; the current price of $0.00739 is in a sensitive range, with a risk of liquidation of over $2 million in both directions, and a breakout in either direction will trigger a chain reaction.
Technical Analysis
Indicator status (as of 12:00 UTC, December 5)
RSI (Relative Strength Index) :
- 1-hour: 53.90 (Neutral, no overbought/oversold conditions)
- 4-hour chart: 69.42 (approaching the overbought threshold of 70, short-term upward momentum is weakening)
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) :
- 1-hour chart: Histogram -0.000011 (Slight bearish divergence)
- 4-hour chart: Histogram +0.000328 (bullish signal, confirming the strength of the rebound)
Moving average :
- The price is above the 1-hour EMA20 ($0.0065) and EMA50 ($0.0056), indicating a short-term upward trend.
- The price is above the 4-hour EMA20 ($0.0053), EMA50 ($0.0046), and SMA200 ($0.0043), indicating a medium-term recovery pattern.
Volatility :
- ATR (Average True Range) 1-hour: $0.00113, 4-hour: $0.00151, indicating extremely high volatility, consistent with the crash-rebound dynamics.
Key support and resistance
- Key support level : $0.0043 (SMA200, long-term support level)
- Near-term support : $0.00659 (a dense area of long position liquidation; a break below this level carries a high risk).
- Current price range : $0.00739 (Binance/Gate.io current price)
- Near-term resistance : $0.00725-$0.00801 (a dense area for short liquidation; a break above this level will squeeze out short positions).
- Resistance level : $0.00991 (1-hour Bollinger Band upper line, Binance)
Risk Assessment : The 4-hour RSI is approaching the overbought zone, combined with the bullish divergence in the MACD, indicating that the rebound momentum is still there but signs of overheating are emerging; the high ATR suggests that the price may continue to fluctuate wildly, with the bulls and bears locked in a decisive battle in the $0.0065-$0.008 range.
Social sentiment analysis
Major finding : Despite the sharp drop in XNY price followed by an 82% rebound and intense competition in the derivatives market, no high-quality discussions were found on platforms such as Twitter/X, Telegram, and Discord . There were zero posts about rebound narratives, whale accumulation, bull-bear battles, or liquidation expectations.
The official project account , @codatta_io, only posts information on participant growth and task progress for the Season 2 Data Challenge, without mentioning market performance or price dynamics.
Impact : Social media absence shows:
- XNY's market participants are mainly professional traders/quants, with very little attention from retail investors.
- Price fluctuations may be driven by algorithmic trading, market maker hedging, or whale activity, rather than by emotions.
- The lack of community discussion increases information asymmetry, making participation by individual investors extremely risky.
in conclusion
XNY experienced typical volatility in highly controlled tokens on December 4-5: extremely concentrated holdings (89.61% held by the top 10 holders) coupled with leveraged derivatives trading (holdings increased by 283%) led to a sharp drop and rebound within the $0.00446-$0.00812 range. Short selling ($2.96 million) outnumbered long positions, making long positions the primary driver of the rebound. The current price of $0.00739 is at a critical juncture in the battle between bulls and bears, with over $2 million in liquidation risk at the $0.00659 support level and the $0.00801 resistance level. A break of either level could trigger a chain reaction of liquidations. Technically, the 4-hour RSI is near overbought territory, but the MACD remains bullish, and volatility remains extremely high. The complete silence on social media is a cause for concern, indicating that liquidity and price discovery mechanisms heavily rely on a few large holders and algorithmic trading, making participation by retail investors extremely risky.
Key risk level :
- Margin call threshold : $0.00659 (long positions at $1.97 million risk)
- Margin call limit : $0.00801 (Short position: $2.44 million risk)
- Long-short ratio : ~1:1 (balanced but fragile)
- Liquidity risk : Extremely high concentration + social silence = manipulation risk