Maple Finance Syrup Monthly Buyback Analysis: In-depth Analysis of the 2% Annualized Deflation Mechanism

TL;DR

On December 5, 2025, Maple Finance announced a buyback of 2 million SYRUP tokens, using 25% of its November protocol revenue. Based on the current circulating supply of approximately 1.14-1.2 billion tokens, continuing this policy will result in an annualized supply reduction of 2.00-2.10%. This new mechanism shifts from staking rewards distribution to permanent removal from circulation, and coupled with the protocol's TVL reaching $2.8 billion, it establishes a sustainable deflationary expectation framework.

Buyback Mechanism Details

Policy framework

On December 5, 2025 at 14:27 UTC, Maple Finance officially announced a key shift in tokenomics:

• Buyback size : 2 million SYRUP tokens will be repurchased using 25% of the protocol's revenue from November.
• Execution frequency : Monthly execution, automatically triggered at the end of each month based on the month's revenue.
• Source of funds : A fixed percentage of the operating revenue from the agreement.
• Mechanism Change : Starting in October 2025, staking rewards distribution (MIP-019) will be terminated, and the proceeds will be redirected to the Syrup Strategic Fund for buybacks and permanent removal from circulation.

Policy Evolution

Key turning point : After the staking rewards are terminated in October 2025, the repurchased tokens will no longer be returned to the market for circulation. Instead, they will be locked up by the Treasury to achieve a real reduction in supply. This marks a fundamental shift from a "repurchase-redistribution" mechanism to a "repurchase-burn" mechanism.

Quantitative Analysis of the Impact of Deflation

Annualized supply reduction calculation

Based on a monthly repurchase scale of 2 million tokens, the annualized deflation rate under different circulating supply benchmarks:

Conclusion : Regardless of the circulation benchmark used, the annualized deflation rate remained stable in the range of 2.00-2.11% , validating the expectation of "annualized deflation exceeding 2%".

Cumulative supply reduction process

Net deflationary pressure assessment

Positive factors (reduced supply) :

• Monthly buyback removes 2 million circulating tokens.
• Treasury lock-up mechanism prevents redistribution dilution

Offsetting factors (increased supply) :

• MIP-009 stipulates a 5% annualized inflation rate (for funds deposited into the national treasury).
• A total of 73.81 million new coins are planned to be issued from October 2024 to September 2026.
• As of December 2025, approximately 30-40 million new coins have been issued (an average of approximately 3-4 million coins per month).

Net deflation calculation :

• Annualized buyback removal: 24 million tokens
• Annualized issuance (national treasury): Approximately 5% × 1.2 billion = 60 million tokens
• Net deflation (circulation level) : 24 million tokens repurchased and removed vs. newly issued tokens mainly entering the national treasury (not directly circulating).
• Actual deflationary effect : Depends on the Treasury's token usage policy. If the Treasury holds tokens that are not in circulation, then a deflationary effect of 2%+ will be achieved at the circulation level.

Supported by token economics

Current supply structure (December 6, 2025)

Assignment and unlock status

• Team and Advisors : 250 million (all unlocked)
• Seed investors : 260 million tokens (all unlocked)
• Public auction : 50 million tokens (all unlocked)
• Maple Treasury : 368.7 million (including newly issued tokens, to be released linearly until September 2026)
• Liquidity mining : 300 million tokens (unlocked in 2021).

Unlocking Status : As of December 2025, all major allocation categories have completed cliff unlocking. Currently, only the Treasury linear issuance (an average of 3-4 million tokens per month) remains, with no significant unlocking pressure.

Evidence of repurchase execution

On-chain activities :

• Main Treasury Address: 0x6a01C16EB312B80535F4799E4BF7522B715AAcfF (Multi-chain assets include SYRUP)
• DAO Treasury Address: 0xd6d4bcde6c816f17889f1dd3000af0261b03a196 (Value: ~$5.45 million)
• Largest holding address: 0xc7e8b36e0766d9b04c93de68a9d47dd11f260b45 (approximately 305 million tokens, accounting for 25.11%)

Market impact : Following the November buyback announcement, SYRUP's price surged 16% from $0.24 to $0.28 before retreating to ~$0.26, with its market capitalization exceeding a peak of $318 million.

Market reaction and community sentiment

Price and market capitalization dynamics

• Price before buyback : ~$0.24
• Peak price : $0.28 (+16%)
• Current price : ~$0.26-$0.268
• Current market capitalization : approximately US$322 million
• TVL of the agreement : $2.8 billion

Key opinion leader perspectives

Bullish camp :

• @MartindRijke : Emphasizing that the current buybacks represent a significant annual supply reduction, and that the buyback力度 will further increase as revenue grows, he believes SYRUP is undervalued.
• @Flowslikeosmo : Pointed out that the market has not yet fully priced in the growth potential of the agreement; the buyback is only a baseline scenario, and if revenue exceeds expectations, it will amplify the deflationary effect.

Rationalists :

• @CryptoRick98 : I'm focused on the continued growth of yield-generating stablecoin products and believe that the buyback mechanism strengthens the fundamental support, but I haven't engaged in price speculation.
• @DefiantNews : The report that the buyback drove an immediate price reaction frames it as a positive development related to revenue utilization.

Community Narrative Core

1. Income-anchored value : The buyback mechanism directly links the token value to the protocol's operational performance, unlike purely speculative models.
2. Sustainability Expectations : The expansion of the agreement's TVL from institutional lending and yield products will support continued repurchase capabilities.
3. Deflationary expectations are forming : Although the term "deflation" is not widely used, the community generally accepts the logic of supply contraction, especially in contrast to past inflation-backed trading patterns.

Potential risk factors

• The impact of recent legal challenges on product launches (although the repurchase narrative dominates).
• The sustainability of buybacks depends on the stability of the agreement's revenue; market volatility may lead to a decrease in enforcement.
• If the issuance of additional government funds (5% annualized) is not properly managed, it may partially offset the deflationary effects at the circulation level.

in conclusion

Maple Finance's SYRUP monthly buyback policy of 2 million tokens can indeed achieve an annualized supply reduction of 2.00-2.11% based on the current circulating supply of 1.14-1.2 billion tokens, verifying the deflationary expectation of "over 2% annualized".

Key support for deflationary locking mechanisms :

1. Policy shift : From staking rewards distribution to permanent removal from circulation, achieving a true supply destruction effect.
2. Revenue base : The agreement's TVL reaches US$2.8 billion, providing a stable source of repurchase funding (25% revenue distribution).
3. Supply structure : Major unlocking has been completed, with no significant selling pressure; the majority of the Treasury issuance remains uncirculated.
4. Market validation : The buyback announcement triggered a 16% price surge, reflecting the market's positive expectations for a deflationary mechanism.

Sustainability Assessment : The realization of deflationary expectations depends on the continued growth of agreement revenue and the strict implementation of the repurchase policy. Based on the current expansion trend of institutional lending and market demand for yield-generating products, this mechanism possesses medium- to long-term sustainability. If agreement revenue grows as planned, the annualized deflation rate is expected to exceed the benchmark of 2%, creating a stronger supply contraction effect.