XPL Market Sentiment Analysis: Significant Cooling Down After Airdrop
TL;DR
The user-mentioned OI data contained errors—the actual open interest in XPL futures was $202M , not $2.4 million. However, the assessment of a sharp drop in market activity was accurate: OI had plummeted 87% from its peak of $1.15B at the end of September, with the price falling from ATH $1.68 to $0.159 (-90.5%). On-chain transaction volume decreased by 85%, daily active addresses decreased by 86.5%, and TVL shrank by 43%. The selling pressure following the airdrop, the false prosperity driven by incentives, and the collapse of community confidence all contributed to the Plasma ecosystem's deep cooling from its peak.
Core Analysis
Correction of the current state of the futures market
Actual OI data (as of December 9, 2025, UTC) :
| Exchange | Open interest (USD) | 24-hour changes | market share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Binance | $61.12M | -1.30% | 30.2% |
| Bybit | $33.63M | -5.55% | 16.6% |
| Hyperliquid | $33.34M | -0.78% | 16.5% |
| WhiteBIT | $14.00M | - | 6.9% |
| OKX | $14.48M | -1.47% | 7.2% |
| Bitget | $13.37M | -10.08% | 6.6% |
| total | $202.39M | -3.73% | 100% |
Peak Comparison and Decline Magnitude :
- Historical peak : ~$1.15B (late September/early October 2025, ranked 8th globally)
- Current level : $202M
- Decrease : -87.4% (from peak)
- 30-day fund flow : Net outflow of $104.9M (continuous liquidation of futures contracts)
The "$2.4 million" figure mentioned by the user may have originated from a single snapshot from a small exchange or a misinterpretation of data. In reality, OI is still maintained at the level of $200 million, but it has indeed plummeted to a fraction of the peak of $1 billion after the airdrop.
Price and valuation collapse
Timeline Comparison :
| date | price | Market capitalization | event |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-25 | - | - | Binance HODLer airdrop distribution (75M XPL) |
| 2025-09-28 | $1.68 | ~$3.1B | All-time high (ATH) |
| 2025-12-09 | $0.159 | $315M | Current price (-90.5%) |
- 24 hours : -6.48%
- 7 days : -12.28%
- From ATH : -90.52%
Market valuation evaporated from $3.1 billion at the peak of the airdrop to $315 million, with the total market value shrinking by 90% . This, along with the simultaneous plunge in OI and on-chain activity, forms a complete picture of market sentiment collapse.
On-chain data analysis
Agreement activity decline indicators
Key Indicator Comparison (September 28th ATH Period vs. December 7th) :
| index | Peak during the ATH period | December 7 | Decline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Daily trading volume | 7,248,488 entries (9/29) | 1,059,566 entries | -85.4% |
| Daily Active Users (DAU) | 199,850 (10/7 peak) | 12,756 | -93.6% |
| Weekly Active Users (WAU) | 955,899 (10/10 peak) | 55,815 | -94.2% |
| Daily transaction fee income | $13,388 (9/28) | $85 | -99.4% |
| TPS | 83.89 (9/29) | 12.26 | -85.4% |
| Number of deployment contracts | 44,528 (September) | ~500-1,000/month(November) | -97% |
TVL decline trajectory :
- Peak : $5.42B (September 29, 2025)
- Current price : $3.09B (December 8, 2025)
- Decrease : -43%
Despite TVL maintaining a size of $3 billion (partly thanks to the stablecoin lock-up feature), the 99% collapse in trading activity and fee revenue exposed the protocol's "dead state"—a large amount of funds were tied up but there was a lack of actual economic activity.
Changes in holder structure
Address growth vs. activity divergence :
- Total number of holders : increased from 155,898 (9/28) to 2,397,343 (12/7), +1,438%
- Monthly active addresses (MAU) : Increased from 129,964 to a peak of 2,262,351, then stabilized at 190,000-200,000.
Analysis : The airdrop caused the number of holders to surge 15 times, but the active participation rate plummeted (MAU dropped from a peak of 2.26 million to 200,000, only 8.8%), and the average revenue per user dropped from $0.14 to $0.0066 (-95%), indicating that a large number of "zombie addresses" only claimed the airdrop and left, and the retention of real users was extremely low.
Social sentiment analysis
Emotional Evolution Timeline
Early September (airdrop distribution period) :
- Keywords : Generous distribution, rewards even for small deposits, rewards for pre-sale participants
- Community sentiment : excitement, FOMO, trust in Binance's endorsement
Late September - October (Price ATH period) :
- Keywords : TVL surge, top 4 global PEP trading volume, Hyperliquid dominates OI
- Conflicting voices have begun to emerge : incentive-driven sham TVLs and insider advantage distribution.
November-December (period of deep temperature drop) :
- Keywords : Value depreciation, losses for liquidity providers, collapse of high valuations, withdrawal risk
- The shift in mainstream narratives :
- Criticism of the token economics design (dumping upon launch)
- Questioning the team's strategy (subsidizing inflated traffic before withdrawing).
- Reflecting on the Profitability Challenges of Stablecoin Chains
- Impactful Viewpoint : Emphasizing that "sustainable models are superior to atmosphere-driven approaches," and calling on the industry to re-examine launchpad strategies.
Sentiment quantification in early December :
- High-participation discussions decreased significantly.
- Bearish sentiment will dominate future holding intentions
- Compared to the peak in September, the popularity has plummeted.
Technical Analysis
Derivatives Market Signals
Funding rates and portfolio bias :
- Current funding rates : Binance 0.001852%, Bybit/OKX 0.005% (positive, long positions pay short positions).
- 30-day historical range : -0.0862% to +0.0100%, mean ~0.005%
- Analysis : Slightly bullish bias, but rates are at historically low levels, reflecting a decline in speculative enthusiasm.
Liquidation Risk Map :
- 24-hour settlement : Total $1.10M (longs $1.03M, shorts $71,645)
- Downside risk for bulls : $3.57M exposure at the $0.141 level.
- Short-selling risk above price : $0.177 level, cumulative exposure of $8.68M.
The liquidation volume has dropped from tens of millions of dollars per day at its peak to the millions, and the continued liquidation of long positions indicates a continued loss of bullish confidence .
Fund Flow Analysis
Net outflow across multiple timeframes :
| cycle | Net inflow of futures | Net inflow of spot goods | total |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 hours | -$13.33M | -$3.54M | -$16.87M |
| 7 days | -$26.74M | - | -$26.74M |
| 30 days | -$104.90M | -$1.76M | -$106.66M |
Trend Analysis :
- Futures trading saw a net outflow of over $100 million (30 days), representing 33% of market capitalization.
- Spot outflows were relatively mild but in the same direction.
- The shrinking liquidity in exchanges and the decline in online interest (OI) corroborate each other.
in conclusion
Users' assessment of a "sudden drop in market activity" was entirely accurate, but the actual OI data was $202M instead of $2.4M. XPL experienced a typical "launch-sell-cool down" cycle after the airdrop distribution: the $1.15B futures OI peak, $1.68 price high, and $54.2 billion TVL driven by the airdrop at the end of September were wiped out by the triple blows of token unlocking selling pressure, the fading of incentive subsidies, and the collapse of community trust. Within 3 months, 87% of derivatives holdings, 90% of price, and 85% of on-chain activity evaporated.
The current market presents a paradoxical situation of "capital accumulation but user churn"—2.4 million addresses holding Plasma tokens yet only 13,000 daily active users, and 3 billion TVL generating only $85 in daily fees, exposing the deep-seated dilemma of the Plasma ecosystem: users attracted by external incentives lack retention motivation, and stablecoin payment scenarios have not yet generated real demand. Unless the team can launch a breakthrough application or rebuild community trust, its popularity will remain low.