ASTER Spot Trading Structure Sustainability Analysis
TL;DR
The claim of a 31% whale share is unsupported : No evidence was found from any available data sources to support the claim that "whales account for 31% of spot trading volume," making this figure unverifiable. The actual situation shows extreme holder concentration (the top 10 addresses hold >85% of the total supply), but recent on-chain whale activity has been limited. Structural sustainability depends on two pillars : a daily $4M buyback program (driven by transaction fee revenue) and the execution of the 2026 roadmap (L1 chain launch, staking mechanism). The current market structure exhibits short-term stability under active supply management, but high concentration poses a long-term liquidity risk.
Core Analysis
Data confirms 31% whale percentage
Verification results : Multiple rounds of comprehensive searches (including Twitter/X, news reports, and on-chain analytics platforms) have not found any source mentioning that whales account for 31% of ASTER spot trading volume.
- Search scope : Exact phrases "ASTER whales 31% spot trading volume", "ASTER 31% whales", and Twitter posts within the relevant date range.
- The closest data : On November 29, 2025, an abnormal sell order of 11% appeared in the Binance USDT market (5.2M USDT/total 49.5M USDT), but it was not marked as a whale and had no 31% correlation.
- Conclusion : The source of this 31% figure is unclear and cannot be verified ; it may be based on non-public data or misinformation.
Holder concentration structure
On-chain data as of December 9, 2025 UTC (BNB Chain contract: 0x000ae314e2a2172a039b26378814c252734f556a ):
| Holding level | Proportion of total supply | Example of a key address | illustrate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top 1 | 41.67% | 0xe8c3...a892 | A single address holds 3.33B ASTER |
| Top 5 | ~79% | Including exchange wallets | Ultra-high concentration |
| Top 10 | >85% | Binance (6.61%), Bybit (0.92%) | Exchanges + whale dominating |
| Top 25 | ~90% | - | Extremely centralized distribution |
Circulating supply : 2.10B ASTER (26.2% of the total supply of 8B), with a large number of tokens locked in the team/ecosystem/airdrop pool.
Whale Activity Timeline
Significant historical milestones (September-November 2025) :
| time | event | Amount | source |
|---|---|---|---|
| September 24-25 | whale accumulation | 118M ASTER (~$270M, 7% circulating supply) | Withdrawals from multiple addresses via Gate.io/Bybit |
| September 20 | Large withdrawals in succession | Total ASTER: 19.3M (~$11.7M) | 0x04EA, 0xe1Da, 0x841D |
| November 17 | Long positions | 2.3M ASTER ($1M USDC) | 0x6834 opened a position on Aster DEX |
Upcoming events (December 1-9, 2025) :
| time | event | Amount | direction | Transaction hash |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 2, 08:08 UTC | Transfer to Binance | 2.86M ASTER (~$2.69M) | Deposit into the exchange | 0xbb83db4a... |
| December 6, 05:22 UTC | Transfer to Binance | 1.96M ASTER ($1.84M) | Deposit into the exchange | 0x3b867aad... |
| December 1, 19:46 UTC | Withdrawing from Binance | 3.58M ASTER ($3.37M) | Propose Exchange | 0x57dad9f1... |
| December 5, 00:00 UTC | destroy | 77.86M ASTER (~$73M) | Send to black hole address | 0xfda509f3... |
Net flow : From December 1 to 9, there was a net outflow of approximately 3.13M ASTER (~$2.94M) into the exchange, indicating moderate selling pressure .
On-chain analysis
Large transfer mode (>500K ASTER)
A total of 20 large-amount transfers were identified between December 1st and 9th :
- Deposits to exchanges : 4 transactions totaling 7.71M ASTER ($7.25M) flowed into Binance hot wallets.
- Exchange report : 1 transaction of 3.58M ASTER funds flowed out of Binance.
- Internal transfer : 77.86M destroyed + 55.72M locked by airdrop (total 133.58M ASTER)
Estimated percentage of whale trading activity :
- Total spot trading volume during the period: ~$1.5B USD (DEX $160M + CEX estimated $1.34B, based on 24h $228M extended to 9 days)
- Large transfer value: $7.25M (part deposited into the exchange)
- WhaleChain on-chain transfers account for approximately 0.48% of total spot trading volume.
Interpretation : The fact that large on-chain transfers account for a very small percentage of the total transaction volume indicates that the vast majority of spot transactions occur within centralized exchanges , making it impossible to track the actual proportion of whale transactions through on-chain data.
Exchange liquidity analysis (7-day data)
| Exchange | 7-day trading volume | 24-hour net flow | Flow direction | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Binance | $470.79M (-28.46%) | +$58.39K | Net inflow | Mild selling pressure 🟡 |
| OKX | $97.87M (-14.77%) | -$612.33K | Net outflow | Accumulate signals 🟢 |
| Bybit | $105.41M (-15.09%) | Data missing | - | Neutral⚪ |
| Gate.io | $50.44M (-27.15%) | +$461.67K | Net inflow | Moderate selling pressure 🟡 |
Overall assessment :
- Binance holds a 67% market share and dominates spot liquidity.
- OKX's net outflow indicates that some whales are leaving the exchange (custody transferred from one custodian to another).
- Trading volume generally decreased by 15-28% over the past 7 days, reflecting a cooling of market activity.
- Net flow mix (overall approximately -$150K tendency to flow out), slight accumulation tendency
Market structure sustainability assessment
Repurchase mechanism support
Phase 4 Buyback Program (officially announced to start on December 2, 2025):
- Average daily repurchase size : approximately $4 million USD (accelerated implementation starting December 8th)
- Funding source : Transaction fee revenue (Aster DEX is a perpetual contract trading platform)
- Mechanism transparency : Details will be made public after execution to maintain the confidence of token holders.
- Supply Management :
- 77.86M ASTER (approximately 1% of the total supply) was destroyed on December 5th.
- 50% of the tokens will be repurchased and permanently burned, and 50% will be locked for airdrop.
- The buyback wallet has accumulated >20M ASTER, implying that 10M tokens will be burned in the future.
Price Response : After the accelerated buybacks in early December, prices rebounded by 9.7% within 12 hours, indicating that the market is sensitive to buying support.
2026 Roadmap Catalyst
Key milestones (first half of 2026):
| project | describe | Impact on market structure |
|---|---|---|
| Aster Chain L1 | Independent Layer 1 Blockchain Launched | Increase token utility and attract ecosystem developers |
| Pledge mechanism | Token staking + governance functions | Locking in supply and reducing selling pressure |
| Fiat currency channel | Fiat currency deposit/withdrawal integration | Expand user base and increase transaction fee revenue |
| Shield Mode | Risk management tools | Enhancing the platform's competitiveness may attract institutional funding. |
Sustainability Logic : Roadmap Implementation → Increased Trading Volume/Fees → Ample Buyback Funds → Supply Contraction → Price Support → Attracting Continued Whale Participation
Risk factors
Structural vulnerabilities :
- Extreme concentration : The top 10 addresses hold more than 85% of the supply; a single large holder selling off could paralyze liquidity.
- Repurchase dependency : Sustainability depends entirely on transaction fee revenue; market downturns (such as a 15% to 28% drop in 7-day trading volume) will weaken repurchase capabilities.
- A precedent for whale exits : In early December, a whale was observed to have completely liquidated its holdings (transferring $468K to Aster DEX and then emptying its secondary wallet), proving that large investors were willing to exit.
- Manipulation risk : The community discussion mentioned "deliberate manipulation of price fluctuations," and high concentration can easily lead to price manipulation.
Data gap :
- Unable to retrieve CEX internal whale order stream data
- On-chain DEX trading volume was $0 from December 1st to 9th (possibly due to data delays or major activity on CEX).
- There is a lack of precise definition criteria for whales (>$100K trades vs. top 50 holders vs. other thresholds).
in conclusion
The claim of a 31% whale share is unverified , and no verifiable data sources could confirm this figure. The actual market structure exhibits characteristics of extreme holder concentration but limited recent on-chain whale activity .
Sustainability assessment : Stable in the short term (6-12 months), but questionable in the medium to long term.
- ✅Supporting factors : Daily $4M buybacks (annualized $1.46B, equivalent to 70% of current market capitalization), supply burn mechanism, 2026 L1/staking catalyst.
- ⚠️Risk Factors : 85%+ supply concentrated in the top 10 addresses, declining trading volume, buyback funds reliant on transaction fees, historical whale exits.
Key indicators to watch :
- Changes in repurchase wallet balance (currently > 20M ASTER)
- Net flow direction of exchanges (currently slightly outflowing)
- Aster DEX trading volume and fee revenue (supporting buyback capabilities)
- 2026 Q1 Roadmap Implementation Progress (L1 Testnet/Mainnet Launch Time)
The current structure is sustainable under proactive supply management and roadmap expectations ; however, if trading volume continues to decline or key roadmaps are delayed, high concentration will quickly translate into a liquidity crisis risk. It is recommended to continuously monitor repurchase transparency and the movement of large holder addresses.