$PENGU Retrospective Analysis: This Round of Pullback vs. the Initial Pullback and the Possibility of a Repeat of the April Market Trend
Key conclusions
The current pullback of $PENGU (23.7%) is significantly lower than the 92% plunge during its initial offering, indicating a noticeably stronger support at the market bottom. Technical indicators, derivatives data, and social sentiment all show bullish signals, similar to the accumulation patterns before the April rebound. However, the team's continued transfer of tokens to exchanges ($66.6M transferred out in November) and the upcoming token unlock pose key selling pressure risks. A 100-120% rebound like in April is possible, but it requires catalysts such as the Care Bears partnership (December 12th) and the NHL event to ignite it, and the team's selling pressure needs to be alleviated .
Comparative analysis of retracement magnitude
Initial pullback (December 2024 - April 2025)
| index | data | illustrate |
|---|---|---|
| Launch date | December 17, 2024 | Binance also launched spot trading. |
| ATH price | $0.0574-$0.07 | The first day hit an all-time high |
| First day of sharp drop | -55% to -60% | It fell from $0.07 to $0.027-$0.029. |
| ATL price | $0.003715 | It bottomed out on April 9, 2025. |
| Cumulative drawdown | -92% | Full drop from ATH to ATL |
| main reason | Airdrop sell-off, whale dumping (single transaction $9M), DDoS attack | Insufficient liquidity exacerbated the decline |
Current pullback (November-December 2025)
| index | data | illustrate |
|---|---|---|
| recent highs | $0.0165 | November 10, 2025 |
| Current price | $0.012565 | As of December 9th, UTC |
| pullback range | -23.7% | From the high point to the current price |
| Phase low | $0.00936 | Touched on December 1st |
| Maximum drawdown | -43.3% | From November high to December low |
| main reason | Team wallet sell-off ($3.37M transferred to CEX, December 7) | Overall market panic |
Key findings : The 23.7%-43.3% pullback in this round is significantly lower than the 92% pullback in the initial phase, indicating that the $0.0098-$0.0107 support range is effective and the holder structure is more stable.
April Market Review
Price performance
| Time Node | price | event |
|---|---|---|
| April 9 (low point) | $0.003715-$0.00405 | ATL hit an all-time low |
| April 15 | Prices rebound | SOL Strategies Launch PENGU Validator |
| April 27-30 (high point) | ~$0.0085 | Concentrated outbreaks at the end of the month |
| April increase | +100% to +120% | It rose from $0.004 to $0.0085 |
| Continued | July peak $0.0429 | The cumulative increase since the April low is +960%. |
Core catalyst
- April 15 : SOL Strategies launches enterprise-grade PENGU validator, strengthening the Solana ecosystem infrastructure.
- April 28 : A joint event featuring Pudgy Penguins, Abstract Chain, and Gate.io was held during TOKEN2049 Dubai, focusing on Web3 games.
- April 29 : Ledger announced a collaboration to launch a limited-edition hardware wallet, leveraging the popularity of TOKEN2049 to generate buzz.
- No tokens were unlocked in April : zero pressure on the supply side, purely demand-driven.
Market Background
In early April, PENGU was among the worst-performing memecoins of early 2025, leading to low community sentiment. However, the floor price ratio of Lil Pudgys NFTs improved to 1:7.58, and the integration of Walrus decentralized storage and TuskyTools tools gradually restored confidence, ultimately resulting in a rebound at the end of the month due to a combination of catalysts.
Current technical analysis
Summary of indicators across multiple timeframes
| cycle | RSI | MACD status | Moving average position | Trend signals |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 hour | 61.89 | Golden cross(MACD 0.000344 > signal line 0.000264) | Higher than EMA12/26/SMA50 | Short-term bullish |
| 4 hours | 65.60 | Positive column (0.000135), kinetic energy increased. | Higher than EMA12/26, tested SMA200 | Breakthrough potential |
| Daily chart | 51.08 | Golden cross convergence (bar value +0.000409) | Above EMA12/26, below SMA50/200 | Medium-term neutral to bullish |
Support and resistance levels
- Key support : $0.0098 (lower Bollinger Band on the daily chart, aligned with the December low)
- Near-term support : $0.0107 (December 5 consolidation low)
- Immediate resistance : $0.0130 (daily Bollinger Band upper line + 4-hour EMA26)
- Secondary resistance levels : $0.0145 (50-day SMA), $0.0160 (November high)
Derivatives Market Signals
| index | numerical values | 24-hour changes | significance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Open interest | $96.53M | +19.4% | Participation surges, bullish sentiment strengthens |
| Funding rates | +0.005 | Right now | Long positions pay short positions, moderate over-leverage |
| Clearing data | Short positions $735k / Long positions $218k | Short selling accounted for 77%. | Bear market trap, sentiment turns bullish |
| Liquidation risk | The cumulative short position of $2.45M between $0.01268 and $0.01332 is above. | asymmetry | Significant potential for short squeeze |
Technical analysis conclusion : The current price structure resembles the bottoming phase in April. Signals such as the EMA golden cross across multiple timeframes, the MACD turning positive, and the breakout above the upper Bollinger Band are consistent with those before the breakout in April. The derivatives market indicates bullish dominance, and the liquidation distribution supports an upward squeeze.
On-chain data analysis
Trading activity and whale activity (November 1 - December 9)
| index | numerical values | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Net outflow from exchanges | -$7.6M | Team distribution exceeds inflow |
| Whale buying | $273k (November) | Selective accumulation to establish a price bottom |
| Team wallet sell-off | $66.6M transferred to CEX (November) $3.37M (December 7) | Continuous distribution pressure |
| Supply combustion | 13.69% | Reduce circulation supply to alleviate selling pressure |
| Growth of cryptocurrency holding addresses | 540,000 → 868,000 (+60%) | Retail engagement surge |
DEX Trading Volume Trend
- Average daily trading volume : $193M (peak in early December)
- A sudden surge of $172 million occurred on December 7th (driven by the Care Bears partnership announcement).
- Raydium protocol supply in November-December : estimated at $300-400M, indicating continued high activity.
April Comparison: On-Chain Activity Gap
On-chain data during April : Dune query shows no PENGU transfers or DEX transactions from April 1st to 30th, indicating that the April rebound was mainly driven by CEX trading, with little on-chain accumulation. This contrasts with the high DEX trading volume ($193M daily average) and the surge in token holding addresses (+60%) during November and December, suggesting stronger on-chain participation currently .
Key differences :
- No tokens unlocked in April vs. current team's unlock nearing completion (26% allocation, 1-year lock-up period ends in December).
- Community-driven in April vs. current team's cumulative sell-off of $108M (since July)
- April's on-chain silence vs. current DEX activity and a doubling of token holders.
Risk warning : The team has allocated approximately 26 billion PENGU (29% of total supply) which will soon enter a 3-year linear release period. Continued selling pressure may limit the upside potential.
Social Emotional Comparison
April Rally Mood Characteristics
- Core narrative : SBT issuance, high-priced NFT transactions, "Don't bet against Pengu" slogan
- Catalyst events : Walrus storage partnership, Lotte limited edition, on-site promotional activities
- Price Discussion : Momentum Creation, Month-End Surge Followed by Correction
- Overall tone : Event-driven FOMO, with significant community activation.
Current (December) sentiment characteristics
- Core Narrative : IP Expansion (NHL, Care Bears), Pudgy Party game surpasses 1 million downloads
- Business milestones : PEZ candy machines enter IT'SUGAR stores; Lil Pudgy AI toys are launched.
- Token Discussion : Comparing PEPE's trajectory, highlighting the squeeze potential of the "flightless birds" theme.
- Political signal : The second member of Congress has been replaced with a PENGU-customized PFP, positioned as a representative of crypto reform.
- Overall tone : Driven by IP maturation, mainstream cross-industry collaborations, with no obvious FUD (Functions, Uncertainty, and Demand).
KOLs' Consistency of Opinions
| KOL | April Viewpoint | December Viewpoint | consistency |
|---|---|---|---|
| @CryptoKaleo | Not mentioned | Strongly bullish, drawing parallels to the PEPE cycle, and calling for opportunities during the altcoin season. | New bullish |
| @LucaNetz | SBT Kinetic Energy Commemoration | Promote game downloads, position the IP as META-level, and share the reasons for holding the position. | Continue to be bullish |
| @Berko_Crypto | Kinetic Commemoration | "Higher"shill, winter loading, growth theme. | Continue to be bullish |
| @pudgypenguins | Cooperation announcement, Non-bet's opposition. | NHL/Care Bears Announcement: Strengthening Ecology | Official continued promotion |
Sentiment Conclusion : No high-quality bearish voices were heard in April and December, indicating strong optimism and resilience within the community. The narrative in December shifted from event hype to IP value and mainstream adoption, with KOLs unanimously bullish, citing fundamentals (games, toys, sports collaborations) rather than pure speculation.
Replay probability assessment
Factors supporting reenactment
Higher quality catalyst :
- The Care Bears collaboration (released on December 12th) is on par with the Ledger collaboration in April.
- NHL 2026 Winter Classic long-term brand exposure exceeds TOKEN2049 short-term event.
- Pudgy Party game achieves 1 million downloads + target of 10 million, with sustained user acquisition outperforming the single-point catalyst in April.
More technically advanced :
- The current price is above multiple moving averages, but the technical indicators showed signs of weakness when it started rising from ATL in April.
- Open interest in the derivatives market increased by 19.4%, but there was no derivatives data to support this in April.
- The liquidation distribution indicates potential for a short squeeze, while the positive funding rate confirms bullish dominance.
More robust bottom support :
- A 23.7% pullback compared to a 92% starter decline indicates the $0.01 psychological level is effective.
- The number of cryptocurrency holding addresses reached 868,000 (+60%), far exceeding the retail participation base in April.
- Supply burned 13.69%, and the actual circulation decreased, reducing selling pressure.
Community maturity improved :
- IP crossovers (sports, toys, games) establish a non-hype-driven value anchor.
- The adoption of political PFP strengthens the legitimacy of the mainstream narrative.
- KOLs make recommendations based on fundamentals, reducing the volatility of purely speculative trading.
Suppressing the risk of recurrence
The team is under severe pressure :
- Since July, a total of $108M has been transferred to CEX, with $3.37M transferred in a single day on December 7th.
- The 26% allocation (26 billion PENGU) will have a one-year lock-up period ending in December, after which linear release will begin.
- This contrasts negatively with the "zero unlocking" environment in April.
On-chain activity contradictions :
- Whale buying amounted to only $273k, while the team sold off $66.6M (in November), resulting in a net outflow of $7.6M.
- Although DEX trading volume is high, team-driven distribution dominates the flow, and signal accumulation is weaker than distribution.
Differences in macroeconomic environment :
- Current market panic (December correction period) vs. stabilization after the April correction
- NFT sales declined by 36.87% (mid-November), indirectly suppressing PENGU liquidity.
The base for the increase is higher :
- It started at $0.004 in April and is currently starting at $0.0126, so the relative upside potential is compressed.
- To reach a 100-120% increase similar to April, it would need to break through $0.025-$0.028, approaching 60-65% of the July peak of $0.0429.
Scenario probability assessment
| scene | probability | Triggering conditions | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| A powerful replay | 35% | Care Bears' strong sales + NHL event ignites interest + team selling pressure pauses | $0.025-$0.028 (+100-120%) |
| Mild rebound | 45% | The catalyst materialized, but the team continued to sell, limiting the price increase. | $0.016-$0.020 (+30-60%) |
| Sideways consolidation | 15% | Catalyst underperformed, team needs to hedge selling pressure | $0.011-$0.014 (±10%) |
| Callback test | 5% | Unexpected negative events or large-scale sell-offs by the team | $0.008-$0.010 (-20-35%) |
Operational suggestions
Short-term strategy (December 9 - December 31)
- Key levels to watch : Holding the $0.0107 support level is a prerequisite; a break above the $0.0130 resistance level confirms the start of a rally.
- Catalyst Trading : The 2-3 days before and after the Care Bears launch (December 12th) are a key window. Monitor whether CEX deposits and DEX trading volume exceed $250 million daily average.
- Stop-loss setting : Reduce positions if the price falls below $0.0098 (lower Bollinger Band) to guard against an unexpected acceleration of team selling.
Mid-term outlook (Q1 2026)
- Unlocking Pressure Management : Monitor the team's wallet address (via Solscan). If the linear release rate exceeds the market's absorption capacity (daily average >500M PENGU transferred to CEX), be wary of sustained selling pressure.
- NHL's campaign delivery : The actual execution results and brand exposure of the 2026 Winter Classic will determine the sustainability of the Q1 rebound.
- Game DAU growth : If Pudgy Party achieves its 10 million download target, it can establish long-term value support.
Risk control
- Position Management : Given the risk of selling pressure from the team, it is recommended that each trade not exceed 20% of the total position, and to build positions in batches to reduce the risk of single-point losses.
- Liquidity warning : If open interest (OI) drops sharply by more than 30% or funding rates turn negative for more than 8 hours, consider taking profits.
- Hedging tools : If possible, short positions can be short through Binance/Bybit to hedge some exposure and reduce directional exposure.
Final assessment : The pullback of $PENGU in this round was indeed less than its initial offering. Technically and in terms of sentiment, it has the conditions for an April-style rebound. However, team selling pressure and token unlocking constitute the core risk variables. A repeat of the April market trend is possible, but the probability is approximately 35-45%, and the gains are likely to be limited to the $0.016-$0.028 range, unlikely to replicate the +960% super rally of July . It is recommended to pay attention to the Care Bears launch on December 12th and the subsequent NHL event execution, while strictly monitoring on-chain team wallet activity as a risk control trigger.