Analysis of potential catalysts for Bitcoin before 2026

TL;DR

Bitcoin is consolidating around $90,000, with multiple positive catalysts emerging before 2026: the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates to 3.5-3.75% and ended quantitative tightening; institutions continue to increase their holdings (MicroStrategy added 10,624 coins in a single week); the regulatory framework is becoming clearer (the Senate is advancing the crypto market bill); on-chain data shows that whales are resuming accumulation (net purchases of 47,584 coins in early December); and technical indicators show oversold rebound signals. Considering these four driving forces—macroeconomic easing, institutional adoption, regulatory progress, and on-chain accumulation—the probability of a medium-term rebound to $100,000 is approximately 55%.

Core Analysis

Macroeconomic easing cycle begins

The Federal Reserve is shifting its policy : The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concluded its meeting on December 10, 2025, and lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5-3.75%, with the market having priced in a 94% probability of a rate cut. FOMC projections indicate a median interest rate of 3.6% by the end of 2025, with a long-term target of 3.0%, providing liquidity support to the crypto market.

Quantitative tightening (QT) ends : The Federal Reserve will officially end quantitative tightening in early December 2025, shifting to a more accommodative policy stance. Fed members have hinted at further releasing liquidity through reserve management and asset purchases, creating a favorable environment for risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Liquidity expectations : The traditional four-year halving cycle is now dominated by institutional liquidity, with the Fed's shift and global central bank easing becoming new drivers of Bitcoin's price movement.

Institutions adopt continuous acceleration

Enterprise-level experience :

ETF ecosystem expansion : Nicholas Bitcoin and Treasuries AfterDark ETF, filed in December 2025, targets after-hours BTC-related instruments (futures, ETFs) and is expected to launch within 90 days. Franklin Templeton includes BTC in a crypto index ETF, alongside Ethereum and Solana.

Consensus on Cycle Shift : Cathie Wood stated that institutional adoption is ending the traditional four-year cycle, leading to decreased volatility and continued inflows of large capital pools.

Progress in clarifying the regulatory framework

US policy breakthrough :

• CFTC Chairman : Points out that using Bitcoin as collateral could attract trillions of dollars to the US market, emphasizing the potential for mainstream financial integration.
• OCC Clarifies : National banks can participate in risk-free crypto transactions and support security innovation from a technology-neutral standpoint.
• Senate Bill : Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott advances bipartisan bill on crypto market structure, aiming for committee vote before year-end, to comprehensively reform securities and commodities regulation.

Global regulatory harmonization : Over 70% of jurisdictions are advancing stablecoin regulation (such as the US GENIUS Act and the EU MiCA), creating a clear framework for institutional adoption. The Basel Committee has launched a review of prudential rules for banks' crypto exposure, and capital requirements may be relaxed despite opposition from major jurisdictions such as the US and UK.

Technical rebound signals are emerging.

Multi-timeframe analysis :

Support/resistance levels :

• Key support levels : $89,157 (4-hour lower Bollinger Band), $88,500 (long liquidation cluster $976M)
• Near-term resistance : $91,500 (4-hour middle Bollinger Band), $93,800 (upper Bollinger Band average).
• Medium-term target : $100,000 (the biggest pain point for options + convergence with the SMA50)

Derivatives Market Structure :

• Open interest : $58.65 billion total, down 0.28% in 24 hours, indicating reduced leverage and consolidation.
• Financing rates : Binance -0.000446, Bybit -0.002453 (both negative), short sellers pay a premium, which is beneficial to long sellers.
• Liquidation data : 24-hour liquidation totaled $175.2M, with bulls dominating at $137.1M, and downward momentum weakening.

Price target scenario :

• Short term (1-2 weeks) : If the RSI breaks through 50 and the MACD golden cross, the target is $93,800 (upper Bollinger Band), with an increase of approximately 4%.
• Mid-term (to Q1 2026) : After breaking through $91,500, the biggest pain point for options is $100,000, which has become a magnetic price level, with an increase of approximately 11%.
• Failure condition : A drop below $88,000 triggers a deep retracement towards $85,500 (lower Bollinger Band on the daily chart).

On-chain accumulation mode strengthens

Whale Behavior Reversal :

Exchange reserves decline :

• 30-day net outflow : -54,404 BTC (inflow of 1,076,277 BTC vs. outflow of 1,130,681 BTC)
• Reserve changes : From 2,814,584 BTC on November 11th to 2,758,874 BTC on December 10th, a decrease of 1.98%.
• Accelerated in December : Reserves fell 5% in December alone, aligning with whale off-farm moves.
• Supply pressure : Reduced available supply alleviates selling pressure.

Long-term holders (LTH) are stable :

• Supply bottomed out : LTH supply (held > 155 days) hit a cycle low of 14.33 million tokens on November 21 when the price was $80,000 (down from 14.77 million tokens in July).
• Stabilizing now : Currently holding at approximately 14.33 million units, indicating easing selling pressure in the spot market (after a 36% correction).
• Extremely long-term commitment : Investors who have held cryptocurrency for 5+ years have seen a net increase of +278,000 BTC within 2 years; the oldest investors continue to hold or increase their holdings.
• Distribution pattern : More gradual than the 2017/2021 cycle, without a retail frenzy peak.

Increased online activity :

• Transaction volume trend : increased from approximately 350,000 transactions/day at the end of November to 550,000 transactions/day at the beginning of December.
• Data for December 10 : 550,483 transactions (up 22.61% month-over-month, up 24.56% year-over-year)
• Cumulative transactions : 1.282 billion transactions were recorded on December 10th, indicating increased network usage and optimism.

Technological and ecological progress

Protocol upgrade roadmap :

• OP_CAT (BIP 347) and OP_CTV (BIP 119) : The contract proposals are currently under developer review, with consensus expected in 2025.
• Feature enhancements : Optimizations to cross-chain bridges, vaults, and the Lightning Network, but these will not be activated before the end of the year.
• Implementation timeline : 1-2 years after review for implementation, laying the foundation for long-term technological upgrades.

Developer activities :

• Bitcoin++ Conference : To be held in Taipei from December 15-17, 2025, focusing on Bitcoin technology advancements, lectures, and workshops.
• Community enthusiasm : Global conferences such as Bitcoin MENA discuss digital capital and energy, emphasizing Bitcoin's role in finance.

in conclusion

Bitcoin is consolidating around $90,000, facing a confluence of multiple positive catalysts before 2026: the Fed's rate-cutting cycle and the termination of QT will provide macro liquidity; institutions such as MicroStrategy will continue to increase their holdings significantly, and government funds will enter the market through ETFs; the Senate is advancing the market structure bill, accelerating regulatory clarity; on-chain data shows that whales resumed net buying of 47,584 Bitcoins in December, exchange reserves decreased by 1.98%, and the supply from long-term holders has bottomed out and stabilized; technically, the RSI is oversold, the negative funding rate and the MACD convergence suggest a rebound window.

Overall Assessment : A short-term break above the $91,500 resistance level could test $93,800. In the medium term, if institutional inflows continue, regulatory legislation is passed, and on-chain accumulation persists, the probability of reaching $100,000 (the biggest pain point for options) is approximately 55% . Key variables include the pace of subsequent Fed rate cuts, the scale of net ETF inflows, and the support level of $88,000-$89,000. The traditional four-year cycle has been replaced by an institutional liquidity cycle, with the triple drivers of macroeconomic easing, regulatory breakthroughs, and on-chain accumulation likely to be the main driving force before 2026.