Analysis of the Delisting of $AIA from Binance Futures

TL;DR

Binance completed the automatic settlement and delisting of AIAUSDT perpetual contracts on December 11, 2025 at 12:15 UTC. The price of AIA token plummeted 61.44% to $0.1657 in 7 days, contract open interest dropped sharply by 44.33% in 24 hours, long positions were liquidated at 94%, technical indicators turned bearish across the board, and on-chain trading activity was sluggish. Based on a comprehensive assessment of price structure, holding behavior, and technical analysis, this delisting signifies the end of the current AIA rally, with a 70% probability of continued short-term correction.

Details of the removal incident

Timeline :

• 2025-12-11 11:45 UTC : Stop opening new positions
• 2025-12-11 12:15 UTC : All open positions will be forcibly settled and delisted.
• Settlement Mechanism : The insurance fund will not be used in the last hour; settlement will be conducted through a single IOC order, with automatic leverage (ADL) activated if necessary.

Immediate market reaction :

• One hour before being taken off the shelves: Price plummeted -38.18%
• In the 24 hours following the day of removal from shelves: cumulative decline of -42.84%.

Market Performance Analysis

Price trend collapse

Current status (12:00 UTC) :

• Current price : $0.1657
• Market capitalization : $21.42M (circulating supply: 129.25M)
• FDV : $165.71M (total 1 billion)
• 24-hour trading volume : $14.74M (-23.30%)

After a continuous decline over seven days, a panic sell-off occurred on the day the stock was delisted, with the single-day drop widening to -42.66%, forming a typical "liquidity depletion - crash" pattern.

Technical indicators are all bearish.

Multi-period RSI enters oversold zone :

• 1 hour: 16.93 (Significantly oversold)
• 4 hours: 20.69 (Oversold)
• Daily chart: 37.90 (close to oversold; 41.71 14 days ago)

MACD death cross continuation :

• 1-hour/4-hour chart: MACD moving average is below the signal line, and the histogram is negative.
• Daily chart: The histogram improved from -0.095 to +0.053, indicating that the downward momentum has weakened but has not yet turned bullish.

Moving averages in a bearish alignment :

• The price is below all timeframes' EMA(12), EMA(26), and SMA(50).
• The daily EMA (26-day moving average) has reached as high as $0.6526, indicating that a long-term downtrend has been established.

Bollinger Band breakout :

• 1-hour/4-hour chart: Price broke below the lower Bollinger Band ($0.1934/$0.1958 respectively).
• Daily chart: Price is near the lower Bollinger Band at $0.1700, volatility is contracting.

Support and resistance structure :

• Key support levels : $0.1700 (lower Bollinger Band on the daily chart) → $0.1610 (area of ​​liquidation of long positions)
• Near-term resistance : $0.1930-$0.1960 (short-term lower Bollinger Band) → $0.2400-$0.2490 (EMA12/short-term liquidation band)

Position and liquidation data crash

Contract market shrinks :

• Total open interest : 15.63M USD (89.56M qty)
• 24-hour change : -44.33% (significant deleveraging)
• Funding rates : Bitget +0.0647%, Bybit +1.25% (long positions pay short positions, increasing the cost of long).

Liquidation data confirms short-selling dominance :

• Total liquidation in 24 hours: $802K
  • Long positions liquidated: $753K ( 94% )
  • Short selling liquidation: $49K (6% of total short positions)
• Liquidation distribution:
  • The cumulative risk of long positions being liquidated in the $0.1610-$0.1270 range is 130,000 USD.
  • Short positions liquidated in the $0.1750-$0.2490 range, totaling 158,000 USD.

OBV continues to show net outflow :

• 1 hour: -18.9M
• 4 hours: -45.1M
• Daily chart: -87.2M
• There are no signs of positive divergence, and selling pressure dominates.

On-chain data shows vulnerabilities

Highly concentrated portfolio structure :

• The top 10 holders account for 95.7% of the total supply.
• The top 5 wallets collectively hold 75% (each holding 15%, suspected to be locked up by the project team/institutions).
• Binance hot wallet holds 4.29% (8.58M AIA)

Low trading activity :

• 24-hour on-chain transactions: 2,252 (1,176 buys / 1,076 sells)
• 24-hour DEX trading volume: only $113.2K
• Active traders: 473 buyers vs 397 sellers (net buying, but very small volume)

Potential selling pressure risk :

• High concentration means that large-scale selling could trigger a chain reaction.
• Binance delisting could trigger fund transfers from exchange wallets, increasing on-chain selling pressure.

Social media silence

Key finding : Despite multiple searches on Twitter/X and Reddit, no social media discussion was found regarding Binance's delisting of AIA contracts on December 11th . This suggests that:

1. The community has very low engagement and lacks individual participation.
2. The project had limited impact and failed to generate widespread discussion.
3. There may be information asymmetry, which some investors have not yet noticed.

Conclusion: The current market rally has indeed come to an end.

Multiple pieces of evidence support the conclusion that the market trend has ended :

1. Price structure breakdown : It broke below all key moving averages and the lower Bollinger Band, with a 7-day drop of 61.44%, exceeding the correction range of most Altcoin.
2. Position collapse : OI plunged 44.33% in a single day, indicating that leveraged long positions were forced to exit and market sentiment for long was exhausted.
3. Liquidation-driven : 94% of the liquidation was by long positions, confirming a one-sided downward trend and a lack of buying power.
4. Technical outlook turns bearish : RSI is deeply oversold but without divergence, MACD death cross continues, and OBV shows net outflow.
5. Deteriorating fundamentals : Contract delisting reduces liquidity channels, and highly concentrated open interest increases selling pressure risk.
6. Community apathy : Zero social discussion reflects insufficient project influence and market attention.

Short-term outlook (next 7-14 days) :

• Probability of continued adjustment : 70%
  • Support targets: $0.1700 → $0.1610 → $0.1270
  • We need to pay attention to whether the daily MACD histogram can continue to improve (currently +0.053).
• Rebound probability : 30%
  • A technical rebound based on deep oversold conditions (1-hour RSI 16.93).
  • Resistance levels: $0.1930 (short-term lower Bollinger Band) → $0.2400 (EMA12)
  • A rebound needs to be accompanied by increased trading volume (OBV turning positive) to be confirmed.

Risk warning :

• The concentration of 95.7% in the top 10 holdings means that the behavior of large investors determines the price trend.
• The lack of community discussion and new capital inflows casts doubt on the sustainability of the rebound.
• Spot liquidity may deteriorate further after the contracts are delisted.

Trading Recommendation : It is advisable to remain on the sidelines and wait for the daily RSI to fall below 30 or for a clear divergence signal to appear before considering a potential rebound. If the price falls below the $0.1610 support level, be wary of the risk of further declines to $0.1270.