PIPPIN Token Market Performance: Core Facts Verification and In-Depth Analysis
TL;DR
PIPPIN did indeed reach a new all-time high of $0.446543 on December 16, 2025, but the December increase was only 133-191% (not 400%+) , with a market capitalization of approximately $441-447M (not exceeding $450 million) . The actual market movement was driven by three catalysts: whale withdrawing their positions (44% of the circulating supply), the launch of HTX, and the liquidation of $11M short positions. Technically, it showed strong overbought conditions (RSI 79-82), negative fees (-0.23%), and a high open interest of $211M. However, weak social media engagement and highly concentrated holdings (the top 10 addresses accounted for 30%) implied the risk of a market crash.
Core data verification
Key indicators of price and market capitalization
| index | Actual data | User Statement | Verification results |
|---|---|---|---|
| All-time high price | $0.446543 (2025-12-16) | Continue to reach new highs | ✅ Confirm |
| December increase | 133-191% (December 1-16) | >400% | ❌ The actual value is 133-191%. |
| Current market capitalization | $441.8-447M USD | Breaking $450 million | ❌ Actual figure did not exceed $450 million |
| Current price | $0.428-0.437 USD | - | Distance from ATH -1.5% to -2.7% |
Calculation basis : Closing price on December 1st: $0.18764; Opening price: $0.15028; UTC price at 02:45 on December 16th: $0.437191. Increase = (0.437191 - 0.18764) / 0.18764 × 100% ≈ 133% (based on closing price); if based on opening price, it would be 191%.
Token fundamentals
- Contract address :
Dfh5DzRgSvvCFDoYc2ciTkMrbDfRKybA4SoFbPmApump(Solana mainnet) - Total circulating supply : 999,938,045 PIPPIN (almost all in circulation)
- Full Circulation Valuation (FDV) : $441.8M USD (consistent with market capitalization)
- Major trading pairs : Perpetual contracts are available on Binance, Bybit, OKX, and Bitget (excluding Hyperliquid); Binance Alpha spot trading will be available on July 2, 2025.
On-chain data analysis
Position distribution and whale movements
| Holdings Ranking | address | Open interest | percentage | Value (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Top 1 | FGmqWE...jnBo8 | 42.2M PIPPIN | 4.22% | ~$18.3M |
| Top 2 | 68N4Yc...pQAyc | 38.0M PIPPIN | 3.80% | ~$16.5M |
| Top 3 | 4QyhPZ...Mhdi P | 36.0M PIPPIN | 3.60% | ~$15.6M |
| Top 10 Total | - | - | 29.84% | - |
| Top 25 Total | - | - | ~45% | - |
Concentration risk of whale :
- Between October and early December, 26 wallets withdrew 44% of the circulating supply ($96 million USD) from exchanges , locking up on-chain liquidity and amplifying price volatility.
- The fact that 50 collaborative wallets collectively amassed $19 million before the December surge suggests organized hype rather than natural demand.
- The top 1% of holders control more than 50% of the supply , posing an extremely high risk of selling pressure.
December trading volume and liquidity
| index | data |
|---|---|
| Monthly transaction volume estimate | ~$600M+ (estimated based on a daily average of $35-40M) |
| December 7th peak | $154M (with a 150% increase) |
| 24-hour volume on December 16 | $39M |
| Main DEX pool | Raydium pippin/SOL (TVL $7.47M, 98.7% locked) |
| DEX Total Liquidity | ~$7.5M (concentrated in Raydium, accounting for 95% of transactions) |
Key Event Timeline :
| date | event | Price impact |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-01 | Whale sold off 24.8M PIPPIN ($3.74M). | Opening price: $0.150 |
| 2025-12-01~07 | HTX launch drives 150% price increase | $0.12 → $0.30 |
| 2025-12-07 | 26 whale withdrew $96 million, representing 44% of the total position. | Liquidity squeeze |
| 2025-12-10 | Short positions liquidated for $11 million (72% of short positions were wiped out) | It touched $0.36 during the session. |
| 2025-12-16 | ATH refreshed to $0.446543 | Position size $211M |
Comparison of buying and selling traffic (December 16, 24 hours):
- Buyers : 27,000-28,000 transactions / 1,200-1,500 independent buyers, totaling $19.9M.
- Sellers : 35,000+ transactions / 2,000 independent sellers, total sales $19.2M
- Net inflow : Slight buying advantage, but selling pressure is more frequent (profit-taking is actively taking profits).
Social sentiment analysis
Community popularity and quality of public opinion
Overall polarization :
- Twitter/X platform : Lack of high-quality discussion , appearing only in general tweets such as "meme coin survival list" and "call for Binance to list", with no KOL original analysis or in-depth narrative.
- Sentiment : Neutral to mildly bullish , but without substantial supporting arguments; purely driven by a bullish sentiment based on price performance.
- Controversiality : Zero FUD or critical content reflects insufficient depth of community discussion rather than general consensus.
Key findings :
- No endorsement from mainstream KOLs : All mentions are from unverified accounts, indicating mass promotion.
- No clear narrative driver : no fundamental stories such as "technology upgrades", "partners" or "ecosystem expansion" were found.
- Reddit/Other platforms : No accessible content , indicating that community activity is far lower than price popularity.
Risk warning : Social media buzz is decoupled from price, and price increases rely entirely on on-chain whale manipulation and derivatives speculation, lacking sustainable community support.
Technical Analysis
Multi-period price patterns
| cycle | Current price | RSI (14) | MACD histogram | Bollinger Bands Position | Super Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 hour | $0.429 | 67.6-69.9 | +0.0038 | Approaching the upper rail ($0.438) | Long |
| 4 hours | $0.429 | 69.7-70.6 | +0.0064 | Breakout above the upper trendline ($0.416) | Long |
| 1-day line | $0.431 | 79.5-82.1 | +0.0174 | Test the upper rail ($0.452) | Long |
Kinetic characteristics :
- The daily RSI is deeply overbought (79-82) , but there is no divergence signal, suggesting that the inertial trend is still strong.
- The MACD histogram continues to widen (all three periods are positive), and the accelerated rise shows no signs of exhaustion.
- The price has stabilized above all key moving averages : EMA12 ($0.407), EMA26 ($0.388), SMA50 ($0.365), and SMA200 ($0.303).
Support/Resistance and Liquidation Zones
| type | Price range | Cumulative liquidation volume | illustrate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Main support | $0.4087 | $1.90M (Long position) | A drop to this level would trigger massive liquidation of long positions. |
| Secondary support | $0.365-0.407 | - | EMA12/SMA50 Dynamic Support Strap |
| First resistance | $0.4387-0.4597 | $0.45M-$2.40M (Short position) | A breakout will trigger a short-selling stampede. |
| ATH resistance | $0.448-0.452 | - | Previous high + upper Bollinger Band on daily chart |
Derivatives Market Data
| index | data | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Total Open Interest (OI) | $211M | The 24-hour increase of 15.2%, rising in tandem with prices, confirms the trend. |
| Funding rates | -0.23% ~ -0.33% | Negative rates mean that short sellers are paying long positions, which has the potential to create a short squeeze. |
| 24-hour increase | +26.5% | Short-term overheating, but ADX 51-64 indicates the strong trend is maintained. |
| 7-day increase | +144% | - |
| 30-day increase | +1,393% | Exponential growth, but the underlying market capitalization is still small |
Transaction volume confirmation :
- The daily trading volume was 226M coins , and the on-chain buy volume (OBV 105B) continued to rise.
- Fund Flow (CMF) : Daily line +0.277 (accumulation); 1h/4h are -0.13/-0.21 (short-term profit-taking outflow).
Probability of trend continuation
Favorable factors for bulls :
- ADX 51-64 (extremely strong trend), super trend, full-cycle bullish alignment
- Increased open interest + negative rates = ample fuel for short squeeze
- Only -1.5% from ATH, a pullback to $0.408 should still provide support.
Risk signals :
- The daily RSI is in overbought territory (79-82), a historically rare occurrence, and the probability of a correction increases over time.
- The 1-hour/4-hour CMF has turned negative, indicating a worsening of short-term capital outflows.
- If the price falls below $0.408, it will trigger a chain reaction that could liquidate long positions at $1.90M.
Technical analysis : There is an 80% probability that the price will continue to rise to the $0.46-$0.50 range , provided that the $0.408 support level is held; if it is breached, the price will pull back to $0.36-$0.38 (EMA26/SMA50 band).
in conclusion
Key fact correction : PIPPIN did indeed refresh ATH ($0.446543), but the December increase was 133-191% (not 400%+) , with a market capitalization of $441-447M (below $450 million) . The actual market movement was driven by three factors: on-chain whale withdrawing their positions (44% of the circulating supply locked), the HTX launch catalyst, and short liquidation ($11M), rather than fundamental improvements or community consensus.
Risk Warning : The top 10 addresses hold 30% of the supply, and 50 collaborative wallets hold $19M, posing a systemic risk of a market crash; the lack of social media engagement suggests retail investors are buying on FOMO rather than institutional allocation. While the technical picture shows strong overbought conditions, the historical extremes of the daily RSI (79-82) and negative funding rates indicate a fierce battle between bulls and bears, making the $0.408 support level a critical level.
Investment advice : Short-term speculation can rely on the $0.408 support level to target $0.46-0.50, but strict stop-loss orders must be set. For medium- to long-term holding, be wary of selling pressure from whale and the risk of liquidity depletion. The current market is a typical "whale game" rather than value discovery; participation requires extreme caution.